New health insurance coverage created by the 2010 health reform law will attract a lower-income, less-educated and more diverse
set of customers than the insurance markets that exist today, according to a new analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers. And that
could create challenges for doctors and hospitals trying to care for those patients.
The accounting firm’s Health Research Institute issued its predictions last week after analyzing government databases
on the demographics of the insured and uninsured in America.
The law, called the Patient Protection & Affordable Care Act, is expected to extend coverage to an additional 30 million
Americans either through the state-federal Medicaid program or through subsidies to buy private health insurance in online
marketplaces called exchanges.
In Indiana, state officials have yet to decide whether to expand the state’s Medicaid program to cover adults with
incomes up to 138 percent of the federal poverty limit. State officials also have until Nov. 16 to notify the federal government
whether they will start a state-run insurance exchange or instead let Hoosiers use a federally run exchange.
PricewaterhouseCoopers expects one-third of the newly insured to gain coverage through Medicaid, 45 percent to shop on the
exchanges and the rest to enroll in employer-sponsored plans.
These new customers will have about half as much income as those who are currently insured. Pricewaterhouse predicts the
average newly insured person will earn 166 percent of the federal poverty limit, compared with an average of 333 percent for
those who have health insurance today.
Those differences even factor out the fact that far more of the newly insured will be single—52 percent—than
is the case among those with health insurance today, where the rate of single patients is 29 percent.
A big reason for that income gap is that only 42 percent of the newly insured will have full-time jobs, versus 59 percent
of insured patients today. Another 31 percent of the newly insured will either be unemployed or have only a part-time job,
compared with just 17 percent of those who are insured today.
Another reason for the expected income gap: differences in education levels. Among the newly insured, just 22 percent will
have an associate’s degree or higher, the analysis said, compared with 48 percent who have that much education among
today’s insured population.
There will be slightly more minorities among the newly insured—25 percent, compared to 21 percent among today’s
insured Americans. But the bigger diversity will be in language. Among the newly insured, Pricewaterhouse predicts, 24 percent
will speak Spanish as their first language, compared to just 7 percent of those who are currently insured.
“The new patient population is more likely to have difficulty with English and be unaccustomed to deciphering the vagaries
of the health system,” wrote the Pricewaterhouse researchers. “And although the new group reports feeling healthy,
physicians suspect there will be a range of undetected medical issues to address.”
One physician interviewed by the Pricewaterhouse team said that the influx of new patients who have not received much medical
care in recent years—while helpful for doctors and hospitals financially—likely will create a huge initial strain
on the system.
“Even the initial health care assessment might be a problem for some of those patients and providers,” said Dr.
Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association. “Because they may not have seen a physician
recently, they will require more hours of assessment and care.”

















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