Declining tax collections eat away at state's fiscal footing

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Indiana's fiscal picture is looking good roughly one year after former Gov. Mitch Daniels left office with about $2 billion in cash reserves and a strong credit rating, but the next few years could leave the state in a fiscal pinch nonetheless.

The state is continuing to crawl out of the recession, with depressed earnings by many residents and an improving, but persistently high unemployment rate. The State Budget Committee had to downgrade expectations last week, after state budget and tax forecasters came back with an expectation the state will collect $298 million less than expected over the next two years.

The pinch will likely weigh most on Republican Gov. Mike Pence, who is heading into his second year with a potentially pricey legislative agenda. The governor's plan to expand the state's school voucher program to preschool-age children and teachers carries an unstated price tag. And eliminating the personal property tax, which accounts for about $1 billion in local revenues each year, would require some sort of backfilling of money, either by the state, local governments or some mix of the two.

In particular, the personal property tax, which is levied on business equipment, has depressed economic growth in Indiana, he said.

"It discourages companies from investing in new technology and the expansion of their businesses. As the most manufacturing-intensive state in the nation, we are holding back new capital investment because of our business personal property tax," Pence said in prepared remarks last week, laying out his case for the tax cut.

The state's fiscal footing is one of the best in the nation. Indiana has maintained a top credit rating from the major bond-rating companies, the state still has a cash reserve of close to $2 billion and lawmakers found money in the most recent budget to retire old debt and pay for some new capital projects without accruing new debt.

But those tax cuts, combined with declining tax collections, are squeezing the pot of money leaders have to work with. If the business tax cut goes through, it will be the third consecutive session featuring a significant tax cut. Lawmakers started to phase out the state's inheritance tax in 2012 and they signed off on further cuts this past session, including a portion of the income tax cut Pence asked for.

Shortly before lawmakers received the grim budget news last week, the economist kept on contract by the state said Indiana should expect to see steady growth over the next few years. The state's unemployment rate has continued a steady decline and auto parts makers have the potential to spur more growth.

All of it could keep lawmakers cautious during the upcoming session, say Indiana budget observers.

"Although the economic forecast is optimistic, the state expects less revenue than when the budget was written last May," said John Ketzenberger, president of the Indiana Fiscal Policy Institute, which tracks the state budget and other fiscal issues. "The improving economy's just not producing as much tax revenue at this point and the conservative revenue forecast reflects that. It'll be difficult for lawmakers to rationalize additional spending or even budget cuts given the new revenue forecast."

Pence has continued the tightfisted budgeting Daniels established, but unexpected downturns have still hampered some goals. He responded to news that monthly tax collections had dipped $141 million by selling the state plane and cutting agency and higher education budgets. And the state lost $63 million a year from the national tobacco settlement after a federal arbitrator determined the state had not done enough to collect settlement proceeds from small tobacco manufacturers.

Winning new programs and tax cuts from the Legislature may have to wait another year, until lawmakers begin work on their next budget and have a better idea of the long-term fiscal trends.


  • Priorities
    "Winning new programs and tax cuts from the Legislature may have to wait another year, until lawmakers begin work on their next budget and have a better idea of the long-term fiscal trends." Also, there's the pressing business of picking on gay people to attend to.
  • Tax marijuana
    We need to tax marijuana. The State of Washington is expecting $5 billion over the next 5 years from legalizing marijuana. The United States has 5% of the world's population and 25% of those who are imprisoned. We can reduce our expenses by keeping those who possess marijuana out of prison and increase our tax revenues at the same time. Marijuana is safer than alcohol. No one has ever died from smoking it. We are labeling otherwise law abiding citizens as felons and preventing them from being lawfully employed.
  • No Truth in Statemernts
    Indiana is the most penalized state in the US for not paying back their Federal loans for unemployment payments. The most penalized... and at the highest rate. Our state government came up with the great idea of having Indiana businesses pay the penalty each month rather than actually repaying the Federal loans. So our business (and all others in Indiana) pay a "surcharge" each month to pay the penalty the Feds are charging Indiana for the delinquency. Daniels and Pence (and others) are just not truthful at all when the say the state has a surplus and is in great financial shape. They just are not paying Indiana's bills.
  • Tax Cut Panacea
    No problem. The Governor will fix all the problems with additional tax cuts. That seems to be his answer for everything. Before you know it, we will have a state that has gone from "good to great" and will pay zero taxes. I enjoy a good fantasy.
  • How can one believe the state is doing well....when income is sort???
    I have a hard time believing my state government. I have the conflicting statements...employment is growing faster than any other state...which in theory reduces state costs for social services, etc and increase state revenue with income taxes. Also, housing is up...so my property taxes. (Could all new jobs be at very low paying jobs as Indiana government has sold out to Chamber of Commence?) So....how can I (or anyone) believe what Indiana government says?

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  1. By Mr. Lee's own admission, he basically ran pro-bono ads on the billboard. Paying advertisers didn't want ads on a controversial, ugly billboard that turned off customers. At least one of Mr. Lee's free advertisers dropped out early because they found that Mr. Lee's advertising was having negative impact. So Mr. Lee is disingenous to say the city now owes him for lost revenue. Mr. Lee quickly realized his monstrosity had a dim future and is trying to get the city to bail him out. And that's why the billboard came down so quickly.

  2. Merchants Square is back. The small strip center to the south of 116th is 100% leased, McAlister’s is doing well in the outlot building. The former O’Charleys is leased but is going through permitting with the State and the town of Carmel. Mac Grill is closing all of their Indy locations (not just Merchants) and this will allow for a new restaurant concept to backfill both of their locations. As for the north side of 116th a new dinner movie theater and brewery is under construction to fill most of the vacancy left by Hobby Lobby and Old Navy.

  3. Yes it does have an ethics commission which enforce the law which prohibits 12 specific items. google it

  4. Thanks for reading and replying. If you want to see the differentiation for research, speaking and consulting, check out the spreadsheet I linked to at the bottom of the post; it is broken out exactly that way. I can only include so much detail in a blog post before it becomes something other than a blog post.

  5. 1. There is no allegation of corruption, Marty, to imply otherwise if false. 2. Is the "State Rule" a law? I suspect not. 3. Is Mr. Woodruff obligated via an employment agreement (contractual obligation) to not work with the engineering firm? 4. In many states a right to earn a living will trump non-competes and other contractual obligations, does Mr. Woodruff's personal right to earn a living trump any contractual obligations that might or might not be out there. 5. Lawyers in state government routinely go work for law firms they were formally working with in their regulatory actions. You can see a steady stream to firms like B&D from state government. It would be interesting for IBJ to do a review of current lawyers and find out how their past decisions affected the law firms clients. Since there is a buffer between regulated company and the regulator working for a law firm technically is not in violation of ethics but you have to wonder if decisions were made in favor of certain firms and quid pro quo jobs resulted. Start with the DOI in this review. Very interesting.