Census surprises

The 2010 census launches today, but details of the findings won’t be available until spring of 2011. Carol Rogers, an Indiana University demographer with a focus on the state, is watching for the following surprises:

— The Latino population in the Indianapolis area will be significantly larger than it was in the 2000 census, possibly 20 percent greater, Rogers says. In the past census, 2.7 percent of the region’s 1.5 million people were Latino. (In this example and the one below, the figures are for 2000 data accounting for the new Indianapolis-Carmel Metropolitan Statistical Area of Marion and surrounding counties along with Brown and Putnam counties.)

— Also in the Indianapolis area, homeownership rates will fall a few points from the 62.4 percent in 2000, Rogers predicts. Marion County, which has long had more renters due to the high number of college students and young people moving into the region, will see a surge in renters due to the foreclosure crisis.

— Head counts in densely populated unincorporated areas will jump. The place Rogers is watching most closely is Granger, a wealthy enclave outside South Bend that had exploded to 28,284 people as of the last census. People have moved to unincorporated areas—Fairland in Shelby County is one local example—to be able to afford more property. The residents also tend to want proximity to cities and their amenities while avoiding taxes for police and other services.

— Seymour, the city along Interstate 65 roughly halfway between Indianapolis and Louisville, probably has grown more than many people realize, Rogers says. Seymour had 18,101 residents during the last count, and has prospered largely through aggression of long-time economic development leader Jim Plump.

Thoughts on Rogers’ predictions?

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