Cassel as good a bet as Manning

September 10, 2008
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casselThe Indianapolis Colts  are no better than the New England Patriots—even without quarterback Tom Brady.

That’s right, the Matt Cassel-led Patriots have just as good a chance as the Peyton Manning-led Colts to win this year’s Super Bowl. At least according to Las Vegas odds makers.

Remember, Cassel is a quarterback that started exactly zero collegiate games playing quarterback at USC. In four years, he completed 20 of 33 passes for 192 yards at USC. He did start one game in college—at tight end. To Cassel’s credit, he did back up two pretty good starters at USC in Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart.

Still, the odds on the Patriots seem to be a head-scratcher. At the Wynn Las Vegas, the Patriots were listed as a 7-to-2 bet to win the Super Bowl before Brady, last year’s NFL MVP, went down with a season-ending knee injury. After Brady’s injury, the odds on the Patriots winning the ring inched up to 10-to-1.

Only the Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys and San Diego Chargers have slightly better odds to win it all this year. The Chargers odds might take a hit now that Shawne Merriman has ended his season to rehab his knee. The Colts also come in at 10-to-1.

And, one Las Vegas odds maker said, if the Patriots land quarterback Daunte Culpepper, the team would have even better odds to win the crown. The rationale being that Culpepper’s experience playing with Patriot’s wide receiver Randy Moss would make them better than they are with Cassel.

Apparently Culpepper to Moss carries more weight in Vegas than Manning to Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne. Anybody want to take that bet?
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  • If Vegas thinks Culpepper is the answer, look out! It looks like from the moves at QB NE is making, they intend to pin their hopes on Cassel. I am predicting 9 wins. 10 wins at best. Just think Matt Cassel could throw more passes this coming Sunday than he did in four years at USC.
  • And if you believe that you could the Sports writer for the IBJ...

    Plus, act now and I'll sell you this bridge.

    Let me spare you the suspense and tell you that as the Vegas odds shift and the Pats lose a few games, they will slide down the charts.

    Second, Vegas odds are skewed by a number of forces. No analyst in his right mind things the Cassel-Pats have as good a chance as the Manning-Colts to win the Super Bowl... except the IBJ Sports writer, which is kind of ironic as is.
  • CreamCrimson I think Schoettle was just reporting not saying he agrees with what the Vegas odds are saying or that the Pats with Cassel have better odds than the Colts with Manning. If you read the blog post he says it is a head-scratcher and points out that Cassel started zero games at USC. The headline may lead you to believe he agrees but the blog doesn't.
  • Vegas odds are driven in two ways. When it first opens, it's based on the bookmakers' best guess as to the true situation. Then from that day forward it is driven by one thing and one thing only: the subsequent wagering. The casino wants their book to be balanced so they don't win or lose a bunch of money no matter what happens so they adjust the odds to get bets placed in the opposite direction. They profit off the percent they retain from winners, not from actually knowing whcih way it's going to go.
  • So... what this tells you is that not many people have started to place bets one the other true competitors to win the SB. Once they do, the odds of Patriots winning will go down.

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