Indiana recession losing oomph

July 7, 2009
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The recession is winding down in Indiana, but the state will lag a few months behind the nation when the economy starts to pick up steam.

Thatâ??s how an Economy.com specialist who tracks Indiana sees it.

Sean Maher, who also focuses on the automotive industry, expects Indiana to gradually make a transition to growth in the first quarter of next year, one to two quarters later than the national recovery.

â??Itâ??s still looking pretty bad, unfortunately,â?? Maher says. â??But there are some very significant parts that are beginning to improve.â??

Hoosier jobs in leisure businesses, retailing and construction are coming back. Home-building permits are perking up in several Indiana cities, largely because the state wasnâ??t clobbered as badly by the housing downturn as some areas of the country.

Countering the bright spots is manufacturing. Indianaâ??s close ties to Detroit automakers hammered the state, and will be the main drag on a quicker recovery, Maher says. General Motors and Chrysler are emerging from their respective bankruptcies and ultimately will prompt suppliers to gear up and bring back workers. But not before suppliers shrink some more.

The recovery will be slow through next year and start picking up momentum in 2011, Maher says.

So the end is in sight â?? if Maher is correct. Howâ??s that for good news? Do you agree with him?
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  • Maybe, in a perfect world. Keep in mind that the Obama administration is not through screwing things up. When the new taxes hit hard, and they will, whatever recovery we would hope for will be strangled into submission.

    It's not that I'm so down on Obama, it's just politics and government in general. No one gets it anymore. And we all suffer because all Washington knows how to do is spend, spend, spend. He just happens to be worse at it because he wants government to grow and to have more people dependent upon the government. It's a recipe for disaster, total disaster.
  • Watch Toyota (forklifts) in Columbus and Cummins in Columbus and Cat in Lafayette (heavy diesels) for signs that the stimulus money has trickled down to increased orders for durable goods.

    Also pay attention to Celadon and FedEx, as the leading logistics companies in the area. All have pulled in their horns, and when they start to hire again it will be a very good sign that more goods are moving to retail. I think it will come sooner than the first quarter of 2010...probably fourth quarter 2009. People may not feel rich enough to buy a house, car, or RV, but they'll spend more on stuff around the house.
  • A lot is going to happen between now and 2011. I doubt much will change until the next Presidential election. With higher taxes looming on the horizon and realizing that the rules are in a constant state of flux, turmoil and chaos in DC makes for little serious investment. There's no confidence for significant risk taking, is there?
  • My company is not as much worried about this year as next, needing enough backlog to get through it

    What were seeing is just a complete stoppage of commercial buildings, other than a few select areas

    We're hoping that we can be lean enough into 2010 to get through it, as I don't think everyone can wait till 2011 - that's a long time off and many quarters to go through.
  • BerwickGuy, that is the most ambiguous comment I have read on IBJ blogs today. Are you running for some political office?

    On the other hand, thundermutt makes specific references to business results. This is something I for one am glad to read.

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  1. Of what value is selling alcoholic beverages to State Fair patrons when there are many families with children attending. Is this the message we want to give children attending and participating in the Fair, another venue with alooholic consumption onsite. Is this to promote beer and wine production in the state which are great for the breweries and wineries, but where does this end up 10-15 years from now, lots more drinkers for the alcoholic contents. If these drinks are so important, why not remove the alcohol content and the flavor and drink itself similar to soft drinks would be the novelty, not the alcoholic content and its affects on the drinker. There is no social or material benefit from drinking alcoholic beverages, mostly people want to get slightly or highly drunk.

  2. I did;nt know anyone in Indiana could count- WHY did they NOT SAY just HOW this would be enforced? Because it WON;T! NOW- with that said- BIG BROTHER is ALIVE in this Article-why take any comment if it won't appease YOU PEOPLE- that's NOT American- with EVERYTHING you indicated is NOT said-I can see WHY it say's o Comments- YOU are COMMIES- BIG BROTHER and most likely- voted for Obama!

  3. In Europe there are schools for hairdressing but you don't get a license afterwards but you are required to assist in turkey and Italy its 7 years in japan it's 10 years England 2 so these people who assist know how to do hair their not just anybody and if your an owner and you hire someone with no experience then ur an idiot I've known stylist from different countries with no license but they are professional clean and safe they have no license but they have experience a license doesn't mean anything look at all the bad hairdressers in the world that have fried peoples hair okay but they have a license doesn't make them a professional at their job I think they should get rid of it because stateboard robs stylist and owners and they fine you for the dumbest f***ing things oh ur license isn't displayed 100$ oh ur wearing open toe shoes fine, oh there's ONE HAIR IN UR BRUSH that's a fine it's like really? So I think they need to go or ease up on their regulations because their too strict

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