Two reasons for optimism about a local housing recovery

August 24, 2010
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Realtors—the perpetually “now’s-the-time-to-buy” crowd—have had a hard time keeping their optimism the past few years as home prices fell and foreclosures rose.

So Dave Caveness, an executive at one of the largest local brokerages, Carpenter Realtors, can be forgiven if he’s out on a limb touting what he sees as the start to a recovery.

Pending sales, where contracts have been signed but the deal hasn’t closed, have taken a small leap this month, up 5 percent from the same stretch in July.

“Doesn’t sound like a lot unless you’re in the residential real estate market and you’re looking for the turn,” Caveness says. “I am declaring this the uptick. This could be the beginning of the housing turnaround in central Indiana.”

The change is a brilliant bright spot to Caveness because the collapse in home sales after the federal homebuyer tax credit expired April 30 was so daunting. Activity shot up that Friday and then went limp until the last two days of July, he says. The trauma was so pointed that he compares the memory with a “Where were you when Kennedy was shot?” moment.

More evidence that the local market finally is turning comes from list prices, which have been trending upward for 10 straight months, Caveness notes. “Values are beginning to harden up a little bit.”

The list price is the price listed prior to the offer that triggers pending status. Historically, the final sale price is 3 percent less than the list price, a rule of thumb that held through the downturn.

All in all, Caveness thinks the bottom has come and gone.

Do you agree that a recovery is underway? If so, will it hold in the face of rising foreclosures?
 

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  • Realtor FLUFF
    What KoolAid is he drinking???
  • Glut
    Not sure the recovery has begun with all of the "short sales" and foreclosures on the market, there is a lot inventory out there... good for buyers that want to endure those processes but not so good for sellers. Give me another glass of the grape stuff.
  • Yeah, right
    The housing market in the USA has been changed for the foreseeable future. It is not going to "recover."

    This mess isn't going to shake out for a decade or more as the housing industry and what's left of the manufacturing industry is slowly replaced with something else. Our economy has changed and the effects of that change is slowly starting to creep into society. This stuff doesn't happen overnight. Our society still demands instant gratification and those days are over.

    Good luck Mr. Caveness, but your industry is going to have to do with a lot, a whole lot less; and you are not alone.
  • One more thing
    This quote from the post is incredibly misleading - "The list price is the price listed prior to the offer that triggers pending status. Historically, the final sale price is 3 percent less than the list price, a rule of thumb that held through the downturn."

    This may be true, but only after the original list price has been reduced time after time after time after time.
    • you missed the point
      The quote is not misleading at all. The point was the year-over-year comparisons of the list price of homes selling is up! 10 straight months. That's after all of the price reductions sellers hav ahd to endure. All I'm reporting are facts. I will admit you have to look hard to find the positive...but there is some. No one has to tell me about how challenging the real estate business has been over the past 4 years. With 30 branches and 700 agents across central Indiana, we know alittle something about this business.
    • Sure Hope So
      I agree with Mr. Caveness. I'm surprised to see homes still selling in our neighborhood at prices that don't seem discounted. People will always need a place to live, and our country is in love with homeownership (for good reason). It is part of our national identity, as is our love of cars - as compared to the European passion for public transportation. A house is still a great investment provided you take care of it, and take care of your neighborhood.

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    1. I had read earlier this spring that Noodles & Co was going to open in the Fishers Marketplace (which is SR 37 and 131st St, not 141st St, just FYI). Any word on that? Also, do you happen to know what is being built in Carmel at Pennsylvania and Old Meridian? May just be an office building but I'm not sure.

    2. I'm sorry, but you are flat out wrong. There are few tracks in the world with the history of IMS and probably NO OTHER as widely known and recognized. I don't care what you think about the stat of Indy Car racing, these are pretty hard things to dispute.

    3. Also wondering if there is an update on the Brockway Pub-Danny Boy restaurant/taproom that was planned for the village as well?

    4. Why does the majority get to trample on the rights of the minority? You do realize that banning gay marriage does not rid the world of gay people, right? They are still going to be around and they are still going to continue to exist. The best way to get it all out of the spotlight? LEGALIZE IT! If gay marriage is legal, they will get to stop trying to push for it and you will get to stop seeing it all over the news. Why do Christians get to decide what is moral?? Why do you get to push your religion on others? How would legalizing gay marriage expose their lifestyle to your children? By the way, their lifestyle is going to continue whether gay marriage is legalized or not. It's been legal in Canada for quite a while now and they seem to be doing just fine. What about actual rules handed down by God? What about not working on Sundays? What about obeying your parents? What about adultery? These are in the 10 Commandments, the most important of God's rules. Yet they are all perfectly legal. What about divorce? Only God is allowed to dissolve a marriage so why don't you work hard to get divorce banned? Why do you get to pick and choose the parts of the Bible you care about?

    5. Look at the bright side. With the new Lowe's call center, that means 1000 jobs at $10 bucks an hour. IMS has to be drooling over all that disposable income. If those employees can save all their extra money after bills, in five years they can go to the race LIVE. Can you say attendance boost?

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