Two reasons for optimism about a local housing recovery

August 24, 2010
Back to TopCommentsE-mailPrintBookmark and Share

Realtors—the perpetually “now’s-the-time-to-buy” crowd—have had a hard time keeping their optimism the past few years as home prices fell and foreclosures rose.

So Dave Caveness, an executive at one of the largest local brokerages, Carpenter Realtors, can be forgiven if he’s out on a limb touting what he sees as the start to a recovery.

Pending sales, where contracts have been signed but the deal hasn’t closed, have taken a small leap this month, up 5 percent from the same stretch in July.

“Doesn’t sound like a lot unless you’re in the residential real estate market and you’re looking for the turn,” Caveness says. “I am declaring this the uptick. This could be the beginning of the housing turnaround in central Indiana.”

The change is a brilliant bright spot to Caveness because the collapse in home sales after the federal homebuyer tax credit expired April 30 was so daunting. Activity shot up that Friday and then went limp until the last two days of July, he says. The trauma was so pointed that he compares the memory with a “Where were you when Kennedy was shot?” moment.

More evidence that the local market finally is turning comes from list prices, which have been trending upward for 10 straight months, Caveness notes. “Values are beginning to harden up a little bit.”

The list price is the price listed prior to the offer that triggers pending status. Historically, the final sale price is 3 percent less than the list price, a rule of thumb that held through the downturn.

All in all, Caveness thinks the bottom has come and gone.

Do you agree that a recovery is underway? If so, will it hold in the face of rising foreclosures?
 

ADVERTISEMENT
  • Realtor FLUFF
    What KoolAid is he drinking???
  • Glut
    Not sure the recovery has begun with all of the "short sales" and foreclosures on the market, there is a lot inventory out there... good for buyers that want to endure those processes but not so good for sellers. Give me another glass of the grape stuff.
  • Yeah, right
    The housing market in the USA has been changed for the foreseeable future. It is not going to "recover."

    This mess isn't going to shake out for a decade or more as the housing industry and what's left of the manufacturing industry is slowly replaced with something else. Our economy has changed and the effects of that change is slowly starting to creep into society. This stuff doesn't happen overnight. Our society still demands instant gratification and those days are over.

    Good luck Mr. Caveness, but your industry is going to have to do with a lot, a whole lot less; and you are not alone.
  • One more thing
    This quote from the post is incredibly misleading - "The list price is the price listed prior to the offer that triggers pending status. Historically, the final sale price is 3 percent less than the list price, a rule of thumb that held through the downturn."

    This may be true, but only after the original list price has been reduced time after time after time after time.
    • you missed the point
      The quote is not misleading at all. The point was the year-over-year comparisons of the list price of homes selling is up! 10 straight months. That's after all of the price reductions sellers hav ahd to endure. All I'm reporting are facts. I will admit you have to look hard to find the positive...but there is some. No one has to tell me about how challenging the real estate business has been over the past 4 years. With 30 branches and 700 agents across central Indiana, we know alittle something about this business.
    • Sure Hope So
      I agree with Mr. Caveness. I'm surprised to see homes still selling in our neighborhood at prices that don't seem discounted. People will always need a place to live, and our country is in love with homeownership (for good reason). It is part of our national identity, as is our love of cars - as compared to the European passion for public transportation. A house is still a great investment provided you take care of it, and take care of your neighborhood.

    Post a comment to this blog

    COMMENTS POLICY
    We reserve the right to remove any post that we feel is obscene, profane, vulgar, racist, sexually explicit, abusive, or hateful.
     
    You are legally responsible for what you post and your anonymity is not guaranteed.
     
    Posts that insult, defame, threaten, harass or abuse other readers or people mentioned in IBJ editorial content are also subject to removal. Please respect the privacy of individuals and refrain from posting personal information.
     
    No solicitations, spamming or advertisements are allowed. Readers may post links to other informational websites that are relevant to the topic at hand, but please do not link to objectionable material.
     
    We may remove messages that are unrelated to the topic, encourage illegal activity, use all capital letters or are unreadable.
     

    Messages that are flagged by readers as objectionable will be reviewed and may or may not be removed. Please do not flag a post simply because you disagree with it.

    Sponsored by
    ADVERTISEMENT
    1. Hello Dear Are you tired of Seeking Loans and Mortgages,have you Been Turned down constantly By your banks and Other Financial Institutions or Micro Finance scheme. This is let you know with 100% guarantee that we Offer loans ranging from $1,000 Minimum to $1,000,000.00 Maximum at 3% interest rate per Month. We give out LOANS for developing business. a competitive edge/business expansion. email address: michealscottloan124@gmail.com We offer the following kinds of loans and many more; * Personal Loans ( Unsecured Loan) * Business Loans ( Unsecured Loan) * Consolidation Loan * Combination Loan * Home Improvement * Xmas Loans for contact to seek for loan email this email address: michealscottloan124@gmail.com Thanks

    2. My name is Mr Henry Josh and i live in the USA California and life is worth living right now for me and my family and all this is because of one man sent by GOD to help me and my family, i once had a life filled with sorrow because my first SON needed a kidney transplant and all our savings were going towards his medications and this normally leaves us with no money to pay our bills or even put enough food on our table and our rent was due and no funds to pay these bills and life felt so unfair to me and every night my wife will cry herself to sleep every night until one day, i was browsing through yahoo answers and i saw a striking advert of a man that gives out personal loans and that the offer is opened to all and i have heard so many things about internet scams but at this point of my life, i was very desperate and ready to take any risk and at the end of the day, i applied for this loan and from one step to another, i got my loan within 12 hours through bank transfer and you know, it was all like a dream and i called Mr Daniel Jones A Man who is the GOD sent lender i found and said, i have received my loan and he smiled stating that to GOD be the glory and i was so shocked as i have never ever seen anyone with such a GOD fearing and kind heart and today, i am the happiest man on earth because by GOD’S grace, my SON kidney transplant was successful and today he is healthy, i and my family are living very comfortable and happy and if you are in my former situation or in serious and legitimate need of a loan, you can reach this GOD sent lender via fidelityloanfirm@outlook.com

    3. Greetings to everyone reading this comment!!! I am Greg William by name. I am out here to recommend the effort of Mark Oscar,I was in need of a consolidation loan amount of 50,000 and as soon as I got in contact with Mark Oscar Loan Firm on Wednesday last week and on Friday last week as well I receive an alert from my bank(Royal Bank of Scotland Group) that the fund was transferred,I want everybody on this site to contact Mark Oscar now via email on how to get a loan because I got my loan from them and I am very happy,so contact them now. Oscarloanfinance@hotmail.com Thanks!!!!!!

    4. Elected officials, like Mourdock, get vested in 8 years. It takes 10 years for all other public employees, most of whom make a lot less money. So much for the promise to finish out his term.

    5. Great state treasurer and a good man!! Just curious if the folks who didn't quite understand his quote would like to tell my daughter-in-law that God didn't intend her! Mourdock's comment was correct but twisted and the article didn't mention that his opponent and the press let the impression stand that Mourdock meant that the rape was intended. Stupid people!!

    ADVERTISEMENT