IBJNews

Poll: Many Americans see end of stock market surge

Back to TopCommentsE-mailPrintBookmark and Share

Americans aren't expecting another bang-up year for the stock market, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.

Of the people polled, 40 percent think the market will stabilize where it is now by the end of 2014, with 39 percent predicting that it will drop, but not crash. Only 14 percent believe the market will rise and 5 percent think it will crash.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index has surged 24.5 percent, to 1,775 in 2013, putting it on track for its best year in a decade.

The rally has been fueled by higher corporate earnings, a slow recovery in the U.S. economy and stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

Perhaps because of the slow recovery, only about half of the general public noted the market's strong performance, according to the poll. Investors were more aware of the booming market, however, as 73 percent say it improved.

William Leyser, 74, a retired machinist from Las Vegas, thinks the stock market may fall by as much as 10 percent next year. He has taken some of his money out of stocks this year and put it into bonds.

"I'm concerned there is going to be a big correction here," says Leyser, who invests in mutual funds. "When it gets high, it always goes down a little bit."

The poll also shows that individuals are less optimistic about the outlook for the stock market than many investment professionals.

While few market strategists expect stocks to keep climbing at the same pace, many see them extending their gains at a slower rate.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the S&P 500 index will end next year at 2,000, about 13 percent higher than its current level. Wells Fargo Advisors forecasts the index will climb as high as 1,900, a gain of about 7 percent.

Stocks have rallied since bottoming out after the financial crisis and the start of the Great Recession, lifting the S&P 500 index 162 percent from its low in March 2009. Despite those steady returns, the poll suggests that Americans are still nervous about buying and holding stocks.

Of those polled, 71 percent consider investing in the stock market to be "generally risky," compared with 27 percent who think of the market as "generally safe."

The perception of stocks as a risky investment has lessened since the spring, when 75 percent of respondents said it was "generally risky" and 18 percent said it was "generally safe."

Still, with interest rates on savings accounts low, some individual investors recognize the need to take on more risk.

"If you want to see some growth in your portfolio you have to go into equities," says Mark Geduldig-Yatrofsky, 64, a former IT worker who lives in Portsmouth, Va.

Overall, 20 percent of investors say they plan to invest more heavily in the market in the coming year, 22 percent will pull back, and 57 percent plan to invest at about the same level as in 2013.

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 5-9, 2013, using KnowledgePanel, GfK's probability-based online panel. For results based on all 1,367 adults, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

KnowledgePanel is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later, completed this survey online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn't otherwise have Internet access were provided with access at no cost to them.

The poll should not be considered a predictor of future performance for the stock market.

ADVERTISEMENT

Post a comment to this story

COMMENTS POLICY
We reserve the right to remove any post that we feel is obscene, profane, vulgar, racist, sexually explicit, abusive, or hateful.
 
You are legally responsible for what you post and your anonymity is not guaranteed.
 
Posts that insult, defame, threaten, harass or abuse other readers or people mentioned in IBJ editorial content are also subject to removal. Please respect the privacy of individuals and refrain from posting personal information.
 
No solicitations, spamming or advertisements are allowed. Readers may post links to other informational websites that are relevant to the topic at hand, but please do not link to objectionable material.
 
We may remove messages that are unrelated to the topic, encourage illegal activity, use all capital letters or are unreadable.
 

Messages that are flagged by readers as objectionable will be reviewed and may or may not be removed. Please do not flag a post simply because you disagree with it.

Sponsored by
ADVERTISEMENT

facebook - twitter on Facebook & Twitter

Follow on TwitterFollow IBJ on Facebook:
Follow on TwitterFollow IBJ's Tweets on these topics:
 
Subscribe to IBJ
  1. If what you stated is true, then this article is entirely inaccurate. "State sells bonds" is same as "State borrows money". Supposedly the company will "pay for them". But since we are paying the company, we are still paying for this road with borrowed money, even though the state has $2 billion in the bank.

  2. Andrew hit the nail on the head. AMTRAK provides terrible service and that is why the state has found a contractor to improve the service. More trips, on-time performance, better times, cleanliness and adequate or better restrooms. WI-FI and food service will also be provided. Transit from outlying areas will also be provided. I wouldn't take it the way it is but with the above services and marketing of the service,ridership will improve and more folks will explore Indy and may even want to move here.

  3. They could take the property using eminent domain and save money by not paying the church or building a soccer field and a new driveway. Ctrwd has monthly meetings open to all customers of the district. The meetings are listed and if the customers really cared that much they would show. Ctrwd works hard in every way they can to make sure the customer is put first. Overflows damage the surrounding environment and cost a lot of money every year. There have been many upgrades done through the years to help not send flow to Carmel. Even with the upgrades ctrwd cannot always keep up. I understand how a storage tank could be an eye sore, but has anyone thought to look at other lift stations or storage tanks. Most lift stations are right in the middle of neighborhoods. Some close to schools and soccer fields, and some right in back yards, or at least next to a back yard. We all have to work together to come up with a proper solution. The proposed solution by ctrwd is the best one offered so far.

  4. Fox has comments from several people that seem to have some inside information. I would refer to their website. Changed my whole opionion of this story.

  5. This place is great! I'm piggy backing and saying the Cobb salad is great. But the ribs are awesome. $6.49 for ribs and 2 sides?! They're delicious. If you work downtown, head over there.

ADVERTISEMENT