Beef prices are spiraling, but meat lovers aren’t deterred—yet

Walter Avalos, a Washington, D.C.-based seller for a large U.S. deli producer, typically got instructions once a year to hike red meat prices. Now, it’s every week.

“We had to put at the bottom of our inventories that prices can change at any moment,” said Avalos, 34. “It never used to be like that.”

Red meat prices are skyrocketing in the United States, the world’s largest consumer and producer of beef. Beef and veal prices surged 11.3 percent in July on a year-over-year basis, according to the most recent consumer price index report. That’s nearly four times the price jump of food overall during the same period.

And it’s not just the U.S. where consumer beef prices are reaching record highs this summer.

Avalos said he’s changing his own grocery shopping habits. Along with his wife and two kids, he’ll eat red meat only once a week—or shrink his weekly portions.

“We used to eat meat every single day,” Avalos said. “Now, we get two pounds, and we try to make that last all week. Before, we used to eat that in a sitting.”

One of the drivers of spiking beef costs is a drought that has ravaged U.S. cattle in key meat-producing states since 2022, causing cattle volumes to collapse this year to their lowest recorded levels since 1951. And now, the Trump administration’s tariffs are hitting major beef suppliers such as Brazil—and are set to push prices for American consumers even higher.

For now, though, consumers like Avalos are still the exception. Americans haven’t cut back on consumption this year, according to a recent S&P Global report citing U.S. Department of Agriculture data—but they are projected to do so in 2026 if high prices persist.

Derrell Peel, a professor of agribusiness at Oklahoma State University, says meat lovers should expect prices to stay high.

“It took several years to get here. It’s going to take several years to get out,” Peel said. “Once you’re in this situation, there is nothing you can do to speed up the recovery.”

Drought hits cattle states

Cattle volumes always cycle, rising for about five years before falling for another five. But the most recent downturn proved particularly severe and prolonged, said Peter Galbo, the head of U.S. consumer staples equity research at Bank of America.

Three years ago, a severe drought hit three of the most important beef-producing states: Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska. In response, ranchers slaughtered cattle early to spare them from hunger, which boosted supply in the short run but shrank it the medium and long run because it meant smaller subsequent calf populations. As a result, beef prices began ticking higher.

Under such conditions, there’s a bigger incentive to send cattle to the slaughterhouse, even if it means a smaller herd later, Peel said.

“You can either eat her now or save her to reproduce for further meat production, but you can’t do both,” said Peel, who expects it will take years for herds to bounce back. “Cattle have one calf at a time. It’s a slow process.”

The drought has eased since its 2022 highs, but there are pockets where it’s persisting in Texas and Kansas, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

At the same time, the effect on cattle populations has endured. The population of beef replacement heifers—baby cows that are saved to birth the next generation of animals—was down 3 percent in July compared with two years earlier, according to the USDA. That scarcity means heifer prices are spiking now, because ranchers need them to breed new herds.

Phil Durst, a farm educator at Michigan State University’s extension school, runs a major calf sale each fall in Michigan. In 2018, the price of a standard calf averaged $1.48 per pound. That rose to $3.22 by 2024 and is expected to reach at least $4.40 this year, Durst said.

Meanwhile, U.S. projections see drought conditions becoming more frequent and intense moving forward because of climate change, a USDA report said. Droughts that last multiple years are also becoming hotter and longer around the world, especially in grassland areas such as the Western United States and eastern Australia.

Tariff shakeout

While domestic drought conditions have hit the U.S. cattle supply, beef lovers now have to reckon with another shock—the Trump administration’s tariff wars.

In the crosshairs is Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter and now the most important source of red meat to the U.S. It sent more beef and veal to the U.S. than any other country in the world did—even more than longtime leaders like Australia, Canada and New Zealand—between January and June, according to USDA data.

Brazil is also the exporter that has been covering for the U.S. while domestic production falls. Foreign beef imports to the U.S. rose more than 60 percent in May compared with last year, and Brazil contributed the most to these gains, according to a USDA report. Brazil sent over five times more beef to the U.S. in May than the same time last year. This bump probably stemmed in part from importers trying to get ahead of the prospect of steeper levies kicking in later after Trump paused some of his April “Liberation Day” tariffs, Galbo said.

Then the hammer fell this month, when the Trump administration’s 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports went into effect. The levy wasn’t a remedy directed at specific imports but a protest against the country’s prosecution of a former president, Jair Bolsonaro, over his alleged role in a plot to retain power by military force.

While the levies against Brazil are among the highest in the world, Australia, another top beef supplier to the U.S., is among those also affected after it was hit by a 10 percent tariff.

“That is obviously going to drive up costs as it relates to U.S. consumers over time,” Galbo said.

One important effect will be the type of beef Americans import, notes Andrew Coppin, the CEO of Ranchbot Monitoring Solutions, a company that helps farmers and ranchers monitor their water supply and infrastructure. Imported beef tends to be leaner and gets mixed in with fattier American cuts or trimmings to make hamburgers and taco meat.

“The impact of tariffs is what sort of beef we are importing,” he said.

For now, the U.S. can’t look to Mexico, usually among the top five beef importers to the United States, because it’s facing the spread of a lethal disease in its cattle herds. The U.S. shut off beef imports from its neighbor in May as a result, further tightening supplies. (Mexico is also facing across-the-board tariffs of 25 percent, although those have been paused amid negotiations.)

Still, red meat sales growth has been consistent this year, said Michael Gunther, the vice president, head of insights at the consumer research firm Consumer Edge, noting that “higher prices don’t seem to have put too much of a dent into those trends yet.” But that doesn’t mean consumers will keep buying beef forever if prices keep edging higher, said Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

Nico Bran, 26, is one of those keeping demand strong. He said he eats red meat four times a week and loves how the food packs in protein and flavor. To keep up with rising prices, he’s cutting costs in other areas of his food budget, like using cheaper spices.

For now, consumers looking for cheaper animal protein can find a bright spot: Chicken should be more affordable this year. Prices for chicken fell by 0.4 percent between July 2024 and July 2025, according to the CPI data. Thanks to a bumper year of corn and soybeans, lower feed costs will help keep chicken prices down. This comes as fast-food joints opt to promote their chicken dishes.

Yoni Vrotsos, a U.S. Navy pilot, said he’ll keep noshing on chicken. But he’ll never fully replace the beef on his plate, even if prices spike more.

“Beef is a big priority,” said Vrotsos, 30. That could change, he added, if prices rise substantially—like 40 percent.