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Articles by Dave Gilreath

BULLS & BEARS: Despite myriad challenges, there's cause for optimism

A week or so ago, I spent a few lovely days at a conference in sunny San Diego while the mercury dropped below zero in the Midwest. For once, my timing was excellent. Weather aside, the days were filled with several thought-provoking speakers. Below is a smattering of takeaways that were interesting enough to share. Paul McCulley, an economist muckitymuck who sits at the right hand of bond investment guru Bill Gross at Pimco, made the observation that the world...
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BULLS & BEARS: My past predictions were not all hot air

One benefit of writing a column is, the reader rarely remembers for long what the writer says. Maybe readers don't remember what stock market columnists prognosticate because they think we're windbags and change our opinions willy-nilly. For example, a month ago, I wrote the market was looking like it might pull back 10 percent and two weeks later wrote about the case for a market "melt-up." Willy-nilly? I don't think so, because both events could happen. But a year from...
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BULLS & BEARS: Are ingredients in place for a market 'melt-up'?

A couple of years ago, I quoted legendary market analyst John Mendelson, who predicted the "mother of all short squeezes," causing a market "melt-up." So far, nobody would say we've experienced anything resembling a melt-up. In the two years since Mendelson's report, I haven't seen the words "melt-up" used. That is, until the last couple of weeks, when I saw it twice. In early January, Barron's columnist Michael Santoli was describing the state of the market. He said valuations by...
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BULLS & BEARS: We might be overdue for 10-percent pullback

The year-end entertainment tabloid news shows were full of young Hollywood starlets using questionable behavior and sultry wiggles to shock us viewers. On other channels, reports cheered the successful year stock market investors enjoyed while simultaneously expressing awe over the size of Wall Street bonuses. Last year provided lots of market gyrations, but the market never pulled back 10 percent or more. In fact, the stock market has been unusually calm for a long time. The last 10-percent drawdown occurred...
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BULLS & BEARS: This year has been good, but 2007 might be better

If you are reading this before Christmas Day, you most likely have only about 24 hours of shopping time left to find that last stocking stuffer. What are you doing reading this now? Get out there and finish shopping! Or, if you are reading this after Christmas Day, I hope Santa was good to you. Unless something dramatic happens to the stock market in the last two weeks of the year, your portfolio should be shouting "hoho-ho" with gains for...
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BULLS & BEARS: Firms that raise dividends often good investments

A couple of weeks ago, I explained that if in your golden years you place too little of your portfolio in stocks, then live too long, you run a high risk of running out of money before you run out of time. For older people, their fear is permanent loss of principal. Although people in their 60s, 70s, and 80s all know they need growth of principal, the fear of loss keeps many of them from getting enough growth to...
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BULLS & BEARS: Conservatism could spoil final years of retirement

A 65-year-old, recently retired couple came into our office the other day seeking advice on portfolio allocation. The husband had a 401(k) rollover with $1 million in it and wanted to take out $50,000 a year for income. Within the first few minutes of the meeting each said, "We can't afford to take much risk with this money because we won't make any more, and it's all we will ever have." Followed by, "We can't afford the risk of the...
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BULLS & BEARS: Aging investors won't lose taste for stocks

A popular theory is swirling around the investment community. It posits that in a few years stock markets will fall because of selling by the baby boomers. The theorists believe the baby boomers will become increasingly conservative with their savings, selling stocks to buy bonds and other income-producing investments. From my experience, this is a load of hooey. I'm guessing the theorists are in academia and not actually doing investment management with real people. The firm I co-founded manages investment...
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BULLS & BEARS: Move over, value stocks; it's time for growth to shine

A comic named Irwin Corey, who calls himself the Professor, once said, "If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going." You had better open up your statement and listen to the Professor, because where your stocks are going might not be where you want to end up. If you have a big position in a value stock, or value mutual fund, it's time to make some changes. It's time to increase your exposure to good, old...
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BULLS & BEARS: Fuss over our trade deficit is much ado about nothing

I'll preface this column by telling you I am not an economist, just an observer. How many times have you heard a sobering news report on the trade deficit? The gist of these reports is that the deficit will weaken the dollar, cause all kinds of job losses, and be the ruin of our economy. The typical deficit TV news report begins with a picture of some old, rusty U.S. factory. It closes with video clips of construction cranes building...
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