Articles

BULLS & BEARS: Why diversifying may not accomplish what you think

What is the one thing nearly every investment adviser, financial planner or grandpa would tell you is the most important attribute of a solid portfolio? Diversify. In other words, don’t put your eggs in one basket-right? It makes perfect sense to any rational person and is almost a religion among some in the financial-planning community. Planners use fancy-schmancy software to “optimize” asset allocation and will plot your portfolio vs. “the efficient frontier” in order to fine-tune your risk and potential…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Don’t expect market assumptions to be true

The other day, a client asked me the following question about the stock market: “How are we going to play the downside when the next president is a Democrat and raises taxes?” That question has three assumptions in it: Presidents who are Democrats raise income taxes. The stock market will drop if taxes are raised. The next president will be a Democrat. For more than five decades, tax rates on personal income have basically been dropping. In the 1950s, the…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Reflect if you must, but look ahead, too

Let’s peer back to a time a few years ago to see if there are any similarities to today. “Back then,” corporations were buying back their own stock as never before and pundits talked about the massive liquidity flowing into stocks. “Back then,” the U.S. market hit new all-time highs in the first half of the year, although professional investors were skeptical since the strongest global economy was in Asia. “Back then,” the economy was in the fifth year of…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Today’s trust company isn’t your grandfather’s

Over the last few months, I’ve gotten to know an expert in the trust business by the name of Charlie Mosbrucker. He is a former trust officer and lawyer who spent more than 22 years working in various trust departments. Over the last decade or so, the trust business has evolved and, as he says, “Today’s trust company is not your grandfather’s trust company.” When I think of a trust company, my image is that of a chubby white-haired guy…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Market history suggests election lead-up will rock

Two weeks ago, I mentioned that there could be a way to profit from now until the big election late next year. The election is still more than 500 days away, and I already am tired of the sound bites. But if there is a way to make a nickel from the candidates’ hot air, the race might be tolerable. On a recent television appearance, Rich Karlgaard of Forbes said he thought the Dow Jones industrial average could hit 18,000…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Why ETFs are gaining on mutual fund industry

The big election is 18 months away. Is there an investment you can use to play it? I think so if you look to a rising star that is attracting the attention of the wealthy as well as the common man. This star’s popularity has gone from relative obscurity a decade ago to a media frenzy now. If this were 1958, you would think I was talking about JFK, and today Obama comes to mind. But I’m not thinking of…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Sectors of stock market swing in and out of favor

I hated chemistry class in high school. Beakers and Bunsen burners were fun, but memorizing the periodic table of elements was torture for my ADD brain. All those little boxes with different colors stacked up in rows with the twoletter symbols and numbers of protons and neutrons boggled my mind. Today, though, a periodic table provides valuable instruction in my business. I am not talking about the periodic table with hydrogen, einsteinium and nobelium on it. The table valuable to…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Embracing unloved stocks great way to make money

Proverbs 30:19 states that there are “four things I’ll never understand, how an eagle flies so high in the sky, how a snake glides over a rock, how a ship navigates the ocean, and why adolescents act the way they do.” Having had three adolescents, I will agree they are beyond understanding. If there had been a stock market in the 10th century B.C., the author might have added one more item to the list. Besides adolescents, he probably wouldn’t…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS Market poised for big run, so put your money in now:

After the market swoon a few weeks ago (which I said in this column on Jan. 8 and Feb. 5 was overdue), you might be feeling a bit woozy. You might be weak in the knees, but it’s time to take a big whiff of smelling salts and turn bullish. Even if you are a bull, you are not bullish enough. With the pullback, you might have been lucky enough to catch the market wiggle, but it is time to…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Amid all the complaining, U.S. continues to prosper

A few weeks ago, I heard Ben Stein speak about politics and the economy. The noted lawyer, writer, actor and economist spouted off various positive statistics about the U.S. economy and then lamented that the public seemed morose about the financial sunshine. Even though our standard of living is at an all-time high, it seems as if Americans like to grovel and complain. Stein said, in his best Ferris Bueller drone, the American public was the most “unhappy happy society”…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Despite myriad challenges, there’s cause for optimism

A week or so ago, I spent a few lovely days at a conference in sunny San Diego while the mercury dropped below zero in the Midwest. For once, my timing was excellent. Weather aside, the days were filled with several thought-provoking speakers. Below is a smattering of takeaways that were interesting enough to share. Paul McCulley, an economist muckitymuck who sits at the right hand of bond investment guru Bill Gross at Pimco, made the observation that the world…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: My past predictions were not all hot air

One benefit of writing a column is, the reader rarely remembers for long what the writer says. Maybe readers don’t remember what stock market columnists prognosticate because they think we’re windbags and change our opinions willy-nilly. For example, a month ago, I wrote the market was looking like it might pull back 10 percent and two weeks later wrote about the case for a market “melt-up.” Willy-nilly? I don’t think so, because both events could happen. But a year from…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Are ingredients in place for a market ‘melt-up’?

A couple of years ago, I quoted legendary market analyst John Mendelson, who predicted the “mother of all short squeezes,” causing a market “melt-up.” So far, nobody would say we’ve experienced anything resembling a melt-up. In the two years since Mendelson’s report, I haven’t seen the words “melt-up” used. That is, until the last couple of weeks, when I saw it twice. In early January, Barron’s columnist Michael Santoli was describing the state of the market. He said valuations by…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: We might be overdue for 10-percent pullback

The year-end entertainment tabloid news shows were full of young Hollywood starlets using questionable behavior and sultry wiggles to shock us viewers. On other channels, reports cheered the successful year stock market investors enjoyed while simultaneously expressing awe over the size of Wall Street bonuses. Last year provided lots of market gyrations, but the market never pulled back 10 percent or more. In fact, the stock market has been unusually calm for a long time. The last 10-percent drawdown occurred…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: This year has been good, but 2007 might be better

If you are reading this before Christmas Day, you most likely have only about 24 hours of shopping time left to find that last stocking stuffer. What are you doing reading this now? Get out there and finish shopping! Or, if you are reading this after Christmas Day, I hope Santa was good to you. Unless something dramatic happens to the stock market in the last two weeks of the year, your portfolio should be shouting “hoho-ho” with gains for…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Firms that raise dividends often good investments

A couple of weeks ago, I explained that if in your golden years you place too little of your portfolio in stocks, then live too long, you run a high risk of running out of money before you run out of time. For older people, their fear is permanent loss of principal. Although people in their 60s, 70s, and 80s all know they need growth of principal, the fear of loss keeps many of them from getting enough growth to…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Conservatism could spoil final years of retirement

A 65-year-old, recently retired couple came into our office the other day seeking advice on portfolio allocation. The husband had a 401(k) rollover with $1 million in it and wanted to take out $50,000 a year for income. Within the first few minutes of the meeting each said, “We can’t afford to take much risk with this money because we won’t make any more, and it’s all we will ever have.” Followed by, “We can’t afford the risk of the…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Aging investors won’t lose taste for stocks

A popular theory is swirling around the investment community. It posits that in a few years stock markets will fall because of selling by the baby boomers. The theorists believe the baby boomers will become increasingly conservative with their savings, selling stocks to buy bonds and other income-producing investments. From my experience, this is a load of hooey. I’m guessing the theorists are in academia and not actually doing investment management with real people. The firm I co-founded manages investment…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Move over, value stocks; it’s time for growth to shine

A comic named Irwin Corey, who calls himself the Professor, once said, “If we don’t change direction soon, we’ll end up where we’re going.” You had better open up your statement and listen to the Professor, because where your stocks are going might not be where you want to end up. If you have a big position in a value stock, or value mutual fund, it’s time to make some changes. It’s time to increase your exposure to good, old…

Read More

BULLS & BEARS: Fuss over our trade deficit is much ado about nothing

I’ll preface this column by telling you I am not an economist, just an observer. How many times have you heard a sobering news report on the trade deficit? The gist of these reports is that the deficit will weaken the dollar, cause all kinds of job losses, and be the ruin of our economy. The typical deficit TV news report begins with a picture of some old, rusty U.S. factory. It closes with video clips of construction cranes building…

Read More