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GOP expected to make gains in Indiana delegation

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Republicans could strengthen their hold on Indiana's nine-member congressional delegation Tuesday, but even with new political districts designed to give them an advantage, Democrats aren't likely to be down and out for the long haul.

History shows that candidates willing to start running again soon after losing a close race can be successful in their next outing. In the 9th District in in southwest Indiana, Republican Mike Sodrel was beaten by Democratic Rep. Baron Hill in 2002 and then won in 2004, before losing his next two races. The 2nd District has been the land of second chances. Republican Chris Chocola won in 2002 after losing to Democrat Tim Roemer two years earlier. Then Democrat Joe Donnelly, now running for the U.S. Senate, beat Chocola in 2006 after losing to him two years earlier.

Republican Jackie Walorski, who lost to Donnelly by 2,538 votes two years ago, is hoping the trend continues. She started running again less than five months later. She said it's been difficult to maintain such a long campaign, but her husband has been very supportive.

Andrew Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne, said there are four races that could be close, although he believes each favors the Republican this time around.

Those races include the one between Walorski and Democrat Brendan Mullen in a district that includes South Bend; a tough match between Republican Rep. Larry Bucshon and former Democratic state Rep. Dave Crooks in the district around Evansville known as the "Bloody 8th" because of its history of close, contentious races; the contest between Rep. Todd Young and Democrat Shelli Yoder in the southeastern area of the state; and Republican former U.S. Attorney Susan Brooks' run against Democratic state Rep. Scott Reske in an district that includes a part of Indianapolis and nearby areas.

If Republicans win all those races and everything else goes as Downs expects, Republicans would have a 7-2 edge in the congressional delegation. That would be the most lopsided split since the GOP led by the same margin in 2004. But just two years after that, Democrats bounced back and won three seats to win a 5-4 advantage.

That's part of the reason Downs said it might not be as bad as Democrats feared after Republicans took advantage of the once-per-decade redrawing of congressional boundaries to give their candidates an advantage. Congressional districts are supposed to be revised after each census to reflect population changes in the past decade.

"This could be one of those years where as far as the win-loss sheets go, you could say that was a really bad year for Democrats," Downs said. "But you take a race that somebody was supposed to win in a walk and it's less than 10 points, suddenly you start asking yourself what could happen two years from now."

Mullen, who is running for office for the first time, said while Walorski, who served three terms in the Indiana General Assembly, has essentially been running full-time for four years, he's not sure how much of an advantage that will be. He believes many identify her as a tea party candidate, and he thinks being a newcomer is a positive.

"The people of the 2nd Congressional District aren't looking for a professional candidate. They're looking for a voice that has real-world experience," he said. "Despite the fact I've been at this for 18 months and she's been at it four straight years, this thing is razor close."

Walorski said she doesn't know whether running back-to-back campaigns gave her a better shot in the end.

"I'm not a prognosticator," she said.

Asked whether he'd take Downs' advice and run again if he loses, Mullen said he couldn't think about that now.

In southwest Indiana, Bucshon said there advantages and disadvantages to running as an incumbent. He is a heart surgeon and was a political newcomer when he defeated Democratic state Rep. Trent Van Haaften for the seat Democrat Brad Ellsworth gave up to make an unsuccessful bid for U.S. Senate.

"People know who you are and know what you stand for, for the most part. That's a positive thing," he said. "On the other hand, now you have policy differences with your opponent and now that you have a voting record. So even though I'm running on my record and I'm proud of my record. But now I have a record that my opponent can attack me on."

Bucshon said he believes it's a level playing field in his current race because Crooks was a state legislator from 1996 to 2008 and has a record to defend.

Crooks, who began campaigning in April 2011, said it's hard because there's a constant focus on raising money.

"That's one reason these campaigns are starting sooner than normal because it took me 18 months to raise $1 million," he said.

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  • Ready to Skate???
    Jackie Warloski said "it's been difficult to maintain such a long campaign". Is she expecting service in the House to be easier? Maybe the folks in the 2nd ought to think about it.

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  1. liek the rest of America

  2. These quaint,obsessed musings by the stalkers are certainly entertaining, but I'm trying to figure out what, if anything, all the yelping below has to do with Zak Brown.

  3. It's evident that Moffett was pushing the right buttons and corporate America is now trying to squash him. He just wanted to withdraw the free pilot services provided to the company by the pilots to try and put some pressure on a company that has not been interested in negotiating a contract in over 5 years. The company does not provide a contract because not having one has saved them a bundle of money. Shame on any Republic pilots not standing behind their union leader just because things are getting tough, can you not see such strategic moves by the company as putting the last union president in a corporate position and into THEIR pocket. Do you really believe the last union president is so appalled at the attempts by Moffett, do you not remember his oppositions to the company? We stood behind him. It has been proven over and over again for thousands of years without fail, a man cannot serve two masters. Anyone that believes people vote contrary to their paycheck and livelihood deserve to be taken advantage of, the recent statements by the former union president are laughable as he denounces the current union president from his new corporate position. Have you ever seen a drafted sports player score points for his previous team, it cannot be done, he is not on the pilots side anymore, he gets his money a different way now than you and I do, and he should not be allowed to remain on the seniority list. A drafted player brings strength, credibility, tactical knowledge, and a strategic advantage to his NEW team, he would not be drafted or paid were it otherwise. We are all forced to choose only one side to play for and support, not doing so has many references in life such as insider trading and shaving points, all illegal for good reason. This basic fact is why corporate moguls, scientist, and engineers all sign non-discloser agreements and non-compete clauses, as protection in case they are lured into switching sides as our former union president has done. No NFL coach ever drafted a player so that both teams could benefit and better understand each other, they are recruited to win the game against that former team, period. Likewise the company does not recruit the former union president by accident or mutual understanding, its strategy. Don't confuse playing the game with good sportsman-like conduct in support of common business and prosperity goals, with the requirement to only play for one side. Good men we all love and favor fall subject to this manipulation, often without their knowledge, and it is not a betrayal of their friendship to oppose them when they switch sides. If we did not love and trust them, they would not have been chosen and lured to the other side in the first place. The deception by the drafted player is not made at a conscious level, it's just human nature and it's all about money and power which corrupts our ability to be objective and loyal to two masters. This is why our court system created the defense attorney, and why our military created counter intelligence. Its strategy and its propaganda, and it works, and that's why the "powers to be" manipulate the chess pieces by sometimes changing their colors. Some players know they are being manipulated when their color is changed, but it brings them more money and power so they do not care. The rest have good intentions but do not even realize they are being manipulated. This tactic is also known by another name, Divide and Conquer. In battle sending an imperfect message with an imperfect team is obviously not ideal, but it's still being sent by YOUR team, your union leader, a leader that has common goals and common rewards with you, they are the best, because we have elected them to do a job for us. If you are not backing Moffett but believing the spin by those that have recently switched sides, you are taking food out of your own mouth. Showing unity and backing an imperfect situation still results in taking just as much ground, it's about unity and bargaining power. It's not necessary to wait around for that perfect attack because it will never come, the company will spin and attempt to destroy anyone that gets in their way. Ultimately it's not about any specific attack anyway, ASAP or whatever it makes no difference, it is and always has been only about power. If this company cared about safety it would not build pairings with 8 hour overnights, come on, are you that naive? Besides, do you really think Hoffa cares, no, he got a call from corporate America and was squeezed into denouncing Moffett. If he didn't they would spin the safety card against him and the Teamsters National with implication for truckers, future contracts, insurance rates etc...saying something like the Teamsters use safety as a bargaining chip, blah blah blah... Do you really think any pilot is going to do something unsafe for the contract, absolutely not, the only ones threatening safety here is the company with reduced rest, fatigue, and poverty. Do you not find it odd that Hoffa and the Teamsters are opposing a Teamster president publicly? Would the Teamsters National not normally support and work with one of their own? Why did they not sit down and help him strategize, correct any mistakes, and charge ahead? Would the Teamsters National not normally support and leverage a contract for all those pilots that have been paying Teamster dues, isn't that why we have all been paying Teamster dues in the first place? I sure haven't been paying dues so that the Teamsters National could come along and write this kind of an article undercutting our union leader and our unity. Whose side is the Teamsters National really on, it's obviously not the Republic pilots side.

  4. No matter what Moffatt does the company is going to spin it like he is the terrorist and brainwash people like you into believing it, wake up, back your players that are trying to change things for you and your livelihood. Where has Hoffa been for the last 6 years, except collecting our dues. Seriously, do you really think an FO going for upgrade, signed off by a checkairman ready for the upgrade, who then fails, is not even capable of returning as a First Officer.

  5. whoa!

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