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Lilly's insulin dip concerns analysts

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Eli Lilly and Co. suffered a tough week on the stock market, in part because of a disturbing bit of news buried in its third-quarter earnings report: Lilly’s insulin sales are down.

The Indianapolis-based drugmaker is relying heavily on sustaining $3.5 billion in annual sales of its Humulin and Humalog insulins to carry it through its current string of patent expirations on other drugs—at least until it can launch new drugs to pick up the slack.

But in the third quarter, sales of Humalog fell 3 percent and sales of Humulin fell 5 percent, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Lilly officials said they lost share in the insulin market in the first half of the year, although the situation has stabilized now.

Still, those problems sparked a lot of questions from Wall Street analysts during a conference call Oct. 24. And Lilly’s share price slipped 3 percent from its close on Oct. 23 until the end of the week. The stock closed Friday at $50.26 per share.

“The Humalog and Humulin sales were light relative to our expectations,” noted Goldman Sachs analyst Jami Rubin during the conference call with Lilly executives. She added, “Insulin scripts have been strong. So what’s happening with the pricing environment?”

Both Humalog and Humulin suffered because they were removed from the formulary of a large third-party payer this year, Lilly reported. Also, the contract between Lilly and Wal-Mart to use Humulin for Wal-Mart’s ReliOn brand was terminated.

But in addition to those things, Lilly officials said, third-party payers are more aggressively threatening to remove or de-emphasize each drugmaker’s insulins from their formularies if the drugmakers don’t offer better prices.

“The negotiations that we basically have with some of the major payers are more difficult. And we have seen their leverage increase as they have the ability to be able to move share as they restrict access to products given the contracts that they're able to establish,” said Enrique Conterno, president of Lilly’s diabetes unit. “So, yes, there is some pressure.”

And in addition to that, doctors are prescribing insulin later to diabetics because they first try to control blood sugar with a relatively new class of oral medicines called DPP-4s, such as Januvia and Tradjenta, and through injectible medicines known as GLP-1s, such as Byetta, Bydureon and Victoza.

“To some extent, that is delaying the initiation on insulin and some of the earlier use of insulin,” Conterno said. “We believe that some of these impacts are more short term. I think we saw similar impacts when, for example, metformin was introduced in the U.S. many years ago. So my sense is that we will continue to see long-term insulin growth rates that are much more aligned with historical rates. But we are seeing some depressed rates now.”

Lilly’s overall results in the third-quarter were “ho-hum,” according to one analyst. The company lowered its full-year profit forecast by 4 cents per share.

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  1. liek the rest of America

  2. These quaint,obsessed musings by the stalkers are certainly entertaining, but I'm trying to figure out what, if anything, all the yelping below has to do with Zak Brown.

  3. It's evident that Moffett was pushing the right buttons and corporate America is now trying to squash him. He just wanted to withdraw the free pilot services provided to the company by the pilots to try and put some pressure on a company that has not been interested in negotiating a contract in over 5 years. The company does not provide a contract because not having one has saved them a bundle of money. Shame on any Republic pilots not standing behind their union leader just because things are getting tough, can you not see such strategic moves by the company as putting the last union president in a corporate position and into THEIR pocket. Do you really believe the last union president is so appalled at the attempts by Moffett, do you not remember his oppositions to the company? We stood behind him. It has been proven over and over again for thousands of years without fail, a man cannot serve two masters. Anyone that believes people vote contrary to their paycheck and livelihood deserve to be taken advantage of, the recent statements by the former union president are laughable as he denounces the current union president from his new corporate position. Have you ever seen a drafted sports player score points for his previous team, it cannot be done, he is not on the pilots side anymore, he gets his money a different way now than you and I do, and he should not be allowed to remain on the seniority list. A drafted player brings strength, credibility, tactical knowledge, and a strategic advantage to his NEW team, he would not be drafted or paid were it otherwise. We are all forced to choose only one side to play for and support, not doing so has many references in life such as insider trading and shaving points, all illegal for good reason. This basic fact is why corporate moguls, scientist, and engineers all sign non-discloser agreements and non-compete clauses, as protection in case they are lured into switching sides as our former union president has done. No NFL coach ever drafted a player so that both teams could benefit and better understand each other, they are recruited to win the game against that former team, period. Likewise the company does not recruit the former union president by accident or mutual understanding, its strategy. Don't confuse playing the game with good sportsman-like conduct in support of common business and prosperity goals, with the requirement to only play for one side. Good men we all love and favor fall subject to this manipulation, often without their knowledge, and it is not a betrayal of their friendship to oppose them when they switch sides. If we did not love and trust them, they would not have been chosen and lured to the other side in the first place. The deception by the drafted player is not made at a conscious level, it's just human nature and it's all about money and power which corrupts our ability to be objective and loyal to two masters. This is why our court system created the defense attorney, and why our military created counter intelligence. Its strategy and its propaganda, and it works, and that's why the "powers to be" manipulate the chess pieces by sometimes changing their colors. Some players know they are being manipulated when their color is changed, but it brings them more money and power so they do not care. The rest have good intentions but do not even realize they are being manipulated. This tactic is also known by another name, Divide and Conquer. In battle sending an imperfect message with an imperfect team is obviously not ideal, but it's still being sent by YOUR team, your union leader, a leader that has common goals and common rewards with you, they are the best, because we have elected them to do a job for us. If you are not backing Moffett but believing the spin by those that have recently switched sides, you are taking food out of your own mouth. Showing unity and backing an imperfect situation still results in taking just as much ground, it's about unity and bargaining power. It's not necessary to wait around for that perfect attack because it will never come, the company will spin and attempt to destroy anyone that gets in their way. Ultimately it's not about any specific attack anyway, ASAP or whatever it makes no difference, it is and always has been only about power. If this company cared about safety it would not build pairings with 8 hour overnights, come on, are you that naive? Besides, do you really think Hoffa cares, no, he got a call from corporate America and was squeezed into denouncing Moffett. If he didn't they would spin the safety card against him and the Teamsters National with implication for truckers, future contracts, insurance rates etc...saying something like the Teamsters use safety as a bargaining chip, blah blah blah... Do you really think any pilot is going to do something unsafe for the contract, absolutely not, the only ones threatening safety here is the company with reduced rest, fatigue, and poverty. Do you not find it odd that Hoffa and the Teamsters are opposing a Teamster president publicly? Would the Teamsters National not normally support and work with one of their own? Why did they not sit down and help him strategize, correct any mistakes, and charge ahead? Would the Teamsters National not normally support and leverage a contract for all those pilots that have been paying Teamster dues, isn't that why we have all been paying Teamster dues in the first place? I sure haven't been paying dues so that the Teamsters National could come along and write this kind of an article undercutting our union leader and our unity. Whose side is the Teamsters National really on, it's obviously not the Republic pilots side.

  4. No matter what Moffatt does the company is going to spin it like he is the terrorist and brainwash people like you into believing it, wake up, back your players that are trying to change things for you and your livelihood. Where has Hoffa been for the last 6 years, except collecting our dues. Seriously, do you really think an FO going for upgrade, signed off by a checkairman ready for the upgrade, who then fails, is not even capable of returning as a First Officer.

  5. whoa!

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