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Larger-than-expected corn crop could slow food inflation

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U.S. food prices may ease later this year now that farmers have planted the second-largest corn crop in nearly seven decades.

The size of this year's corn crop will be 92.3 million acres, the U.S. Agriculture Department said Thursday. That's 9 percent larger than the average annual corn crop over the past decade. The only crop bigger in the past 67 years was planted in 2007.

Many analysts had worried that wet weather this spring would cut the number of corn acres. But record-high prices are encouraging farmers to use more acres for corn, and less for soybeans and wheat.

A greater crop estimate drove corn futures down 30 cents Thursday to close at nearly $6.21 per bushel. That's the maximum price change allowed by futures exchanges. Corn rose to a record high of $7.99 per bushel earlier this month.

More expensive grain has led to food price increases this year. That could ultimately make everything from beef to cereal to soft drinks more expensive at the supermarket. For all of 2011, the USDA predicts food prices will rise 3 percent to 4 percent.

A huge harvest in August could ultimately slow food inflation. It typically takes six months for changes in commodity prices to affect retail food prices in the U.S. Analysts say consumers could see some relief at the supermarket by early 2012.

"All of us who perceived tighter (corn) supplies up to this point, all of us were proven wrong today," said Jason Ward, an analyst with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis.

Industry traders had expected just 90.8 million acres of corn had been planted. Knowing that far more corn is in the pipeline will likely pull down grain prices dramatically this summer, Ward said.

Farmers chose to plant corn at the expense of this year's soybean crop. They planted only 75.2 million acres of soybeans, about 3 percent less than last year. Farmers have a limited supply of good farmland and usually trade one crop for another on their acreage.

"It seemed to me there was $100 to $150 per acre more money in the corn than there was in the beans," said Tom Kreutzer, who planted 150 acres of corn on his farm near Wakeeney, Kan. "That's the kind of math that a lot of guys were using."

A separate USDA report Thursday estimated the U.S. had 3.67 billion bushels of corn in storage. Most analysts were expecting a reserve of just 3.3 billion bushels, said John Sanow, an analyst with Telvent DTN in Omaha, Neb. If the reserve estimate is accurate, it means backup supplies could be higher this year and next. That would ease fears of a shortage.

Still, corn reserves are expected in August to hit their lowest level since 1995, according to the most recent USDA estimate. Global demand from ethanol producers and livestock owners has risen faster than farmers' production over the last decade.

Higher corn prices make soybeans and wheat more expensive because farmers plant less of them.

Raised expectations for this fall's corn crop also helped lower soybean prices in trading Thursday. Soybeans fell 29 cents to $12.94 a bushel.

A bigger crop doesn't guarantee lower food prices. A drought or flood could limit the size of the harvested crop. Ward said many of the acres planted this spring were on marginal land that won't yield much grain. Many farmers planted during wet weather just because they knew they could get the crops insured.

"They have no intention of harvesting them because they were planted in complete mud," Ward said.

Corn is a key ingredient in feed for poultry and livestock, and a staple in many processed foods. When corn prices rise, food processors and grocers pass along the higher costs to the consumer.

Surging corn and soybean prices are showing up at the grocery store this summer. In May, a sirloin steak cost about 7 percent more than last year, according to the most recent available Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. The price of pork chops jumped 9 percent. The price of spaghetti and macaroni noodles, which often contain soybean meal and corn syrup, jumped 13 percent.

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  1. liek the rest of America

  2. These quaint,obsessed musings by the stalkers are certainly entertaining, but I'm trying to figure out what, if anything, all the yelping below has to do with Zak Brown.

  3. It's evident that Moffett was pushing the right buttons and corporate America is now trying to squash him. He just wanted to withdraw the free pilot services provided to the company by the pilots to try and put some pressure on a company that has not been interested in negotiating a contract in over 5 years. The company does not provide a contract because not having one has saved them a bundle of money. Shame on any Republic pilots not standing behind their union leader just because things are getting tough, can you not see such strategic moves by the company as putting the last union president in a corporate position and into THEIR pocket. Do you really believe the last union president is so appalled at the attempts by Moffett, do you not remember his oppositions to the company? We stood behind him. It has been proven over and over again for thousands of years without fail, a man cannot serve two masters. Anyone that believes people vote contrary to their paycheck and livelihood deserve to be taken advantage of, the recent statements by the former union president are laughable as he denounces the current union president from his new corporate position. Have you ever seen a drafted sports player score points for his previous team, it cannot be done, he is not on the pilots side anymore, he gets his money a different way now than you and I do, and he should not be allowed to remain on the seniority list. A drafted player brings strength, credibility, tactical knowledge, and a strategic advantage to his NEW team, he would not be drafted or paid were it otherwise. We are all forced to choose only one side to play for and support, not doing so has many references in life such as insider trading and shaving points, all illegal for good reason. This basic fact is why corporate moguls, scientist, and engineers all sign non-discloser agreements and non-compete clauses, as protection in case they are lured into switching sides as our former union president has done. No NFL coach ever drafted a player so that both teams could benefit and better understand each other, they are recruited to win the game against that former team, period. Likewise the company does not recruit the former union president by accident or mutual understanding, its strategy. Don't confuse playing the game with good sportsman-like conduct in support of common business and prosperity goals, with the requirement to only play for one side. Good men we all love and favor fall subject to this manipulation, often without their knowledge, and it is not a betrayal of their friendship to oppose them when they switch sides. If we did not love and trust them, they would not have been chosen and lured to the other side in the first place. The deception by the drafted player is not made at a conscious level, it's just human nature and it's all about money and power which corrupts our ability to be objective and loyal to two masters. This is why our court system created the defense attorney, and why our military created counter intelligence. Its strategy and its propaganda, and it works, and that's why the "powers to be" manipulate the chess pieces by sometimes changing their colors. Some players know they are being manipulated when their color is changed, but it brings them more money and power so they do not care. The rest have good intentions but do not even realize they are being manipulated. This tactic is also known by another name, Divide and Conquer. In battle sending an imperfect message with an imperfect team is obviously not ideal, but it's still being sent by YOUR team, your union leader, a leader that has common goals and common rewards with you, they are the best, because we have elected them to do a job for us. If you are not backing Moffett but believing the spin by those that have recently switched sides, you are taking food out of your own mouth. Showing unity and backing an imperfect situation still results in taking just as much ground, it's about unity and bargaining power. It's not necessary to wait around for that perfect attack because it will never come, the company will spin and attempt to destroy anyone that gets in their way. Ultimately it's not about any specific attack anyway, ASAP or whatever it makes no difference, it is and always has been only about power. If this company cared about safety it would not build pairings with 8 hour overnights, come on, are you that naive? Besides, do you really think Hoffa cares, no, he got a call from corporate America and was squeezed into denouncing Moffett. If he didn't they would spin the safety card against him and the Teamsters National with implication for truckers, future contracts, insurance rates etc...saying something like the Teamsters use safety as a bargaining chip, blah blah blah... Do you really think any pilot is going to do something unsafe for the contract, absolutely not, the only ones threatening safety here is the company with reduced rest, fatigue, and poverty. Do you not find it odd that Hoffa and the Teamsters are opposing a Teamster president publicly? Would the Teamsters National not normally support and work with one of their own? Why did they not sit down and help him strategize, correct any mistakes, and charge ahead? Would the Teamsters National not normally support and leverage a contract for all those pilots that have been paying Teamster dues, isn't that why we have all been paying Teamster dues in the first place? I sure haven't been paying dues so that the Teamsters National could come along and write this kind of an article undercutting our union leader and our unity. Whose side is the Teamsters National really on, it's obviously not the Republic pilots side.

  4. No matter what Moffatt does the company is going to spin it like he is the terrorist and brainwash people like you into believing it, wake up, back your players that are trying to change things for you and your livelihood. Where has Hoffa been for the last 6 years, except collecting our dues. Seriously, do you really think an FO going for upgrade, signed off by a checkairman ready for the upgrade, who then fails, is not even capable of returning as a First Officer.

  5. whoa!

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