Poll shows Lugar trailing Mourdock by double digits

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A new poll shows U.S. Sen. Richard G. Lugar may be in real danger of losing his longtime Senate seat.

Results released Friday morning by Howey Politics Indiana and DePauw University have Lugar trailing Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock by double digits, 48 percent to 38 percent, in the Indiana Republican Senate primary race.

The results are in stark contrast to the previous Howey/DePauw poll in late March that found 42 percent of likely Republican voters backing Lugar, compared with Mourdock’s 35 percent.

The latest survey was conducted by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, and included 700 mostly Republican voters. It has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

Yang said a poll he conducted in January for the Indiana Democratic Party showed the first signs of trouble for Lugar, when 56 percent of those surveyed said they wouldn’t vote for Lugar in the primary.

“The findings of that poll made clear that Sen. Lugar was vulnerable to a single challenger in a Republican primary,” he said. “And that is exactly what has seemed to transpire.”

The race between Lugar and Mourdock, however, could come down to the wire, depending upon the accuracy of the various polls attempting to gauge the contest.

Lugar’s campaign on Thursday pointed to a poll by Lunch Pail Republicans, which showed him leading Mourdock 44 percent to 42 percent—virtually a dead heat given the poll’s 4.9-percentage-point margin of error.

Lugar is seeking his seventh term. But Mourdock's backers are casting the 80-year-old as too moderate for conservative-leaning Indiana and out of touch after 36 years in Washington, D.C.

Lugar won his last election in 2006 with 80 percent of the vote and no Democratic challenger.

The winner of Tuesday’s primary will face Democrat U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly and Libertarian Andy Horning in the November general election.


  • Cutting Off your Nose...
    In the US Congress the most important thing is seniority. Senator Lugar has it; Senator Mourdock will not. If he's re-elected over and over again he can have the seniority that Lugar now has on behalf of Indiana in 2049.
    If he's returned Lugar might head the Agriculture Committee again next year. Mourdock? Maybe in 2030 or so?
    If the Republican win back the majority Sen. Lugar is likely to become the President pro tempore of the US Senate.
    Does Indiana want to return a powerhouse to the Senate or does she want to send a novice to sit maybe a dozen or so other freshman Senators?
  • H1B and Outsourcing
    What turned me off of Lugar was I sent him an e-mail months back asking what his position was on the H1B Visa program and his staff responded to my amazement. More amazing was the response said, "It is only 85,000 jobs a year." In a recession that an unexcusable answer. Sorry, China doesnt outsource jobs, nor does India. I am voting against Lugar. That is not representing me nor my fellow IT workers--nor their families!

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  1. Now if he'd just stay there...

  2. Daniel - what about the many US citizens who do NOT follow what the Bible teaches? The Hindus, Jews, Muslims and others who are all American citizens entitled to all rights as Americans?? This issue has NOTHING to do with "What the Bible says..." Keep all Churches separate from State! Pence's ongoing idiocy continues to make Indiana look like a backwards, homophobic state in the eyes of our nation. Can't we move on to bigger issues - like educating our kids?

  3. 1. IBJ should link to the referenced report. We are in the age of electronic media...not sharing information is lazy. Here is a link http://www.in.gov/gov/files/Blue_Ribbon_Panel_Report_July_9_2014.pdf 2. The article should provide more clarity about the make-up of this panel. The commenters are making this item out to be partisan, it does not appear the panel is partisan. Here is a list of the panel which appears to be balanced with different SME to add different perspectives http://www.in.gov/activecalendar/EventList.aspx?view=EventDetails&eventidn=138116?formation_id=189603 3. It suggests a by-pass, I do not see where this report suggests another "loop". 4. Henry, based on your kneejerk reaction, we would be better off if you moved to another state unless your post was meant as sarcasm in which case I say Well Done. 5. The article and report actually indicates need to improve rail and port infrastructure in direct contradiction to Shayla commentary. Specifically, recommendation is to consider passenger rail projects... 6. People have a voice with their elected officials. These are suggestions and do not represent "crony capitalism", etc. The report needs to be analyzed and the legislature can decide on priorities and spending. Don't like it, then vote in a new legislature but quit artificially creating issues where there are none! People need to sift through the politics and provide constructive criticism to the process rather than making uninformed comments in a public forum based on misinformation. IBJ should work harder to correct the record in these forums when blatant errors or misrepresentations are made.

  4. Joe ... Marriage is defined in the Bible ... it is mentioned in the Bible often. Marriage is not mentioned once in the US or Indiana Constitution ...

  5. Daniel - Educate me please: what does the Bible have to do with laws? If the government wasn't in the business of marriage to begin with, then it wouldn't have to "define" marriage at all. Marriage could be left as a personal, religious, or otherwise unregulated action, with no ties to taxes, legal status, etc. Then people could marry whomever they want, and all this silliness would go away. Remember to vote Libertarian in November.