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Unemployment aid requests fall to near 3-year low

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The number of people requesting unemployment benefits last week plunged to a nearly three-year low, bolstering likelihood that companies will increase the pace of hiring this year.

Applications for unemployment benefits fell by 20,000, to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday. It was the third decline in the last four weeks. Applications are now at their lowest level since May 2008.

The four-week average for applications, a less volatile figure, fell last week to 388,500. That's the lowest level since July 2008, the last time the four-week average was below 400,000.

Economists say applications that remain consistently below 375,000 tend to signal declines in the unemployment rate. Applications for benefits peaked during the recession at 651,000.

The downward trend in applications suggests that companies are easing the pace of layoffs now that the economy is gaining momentum. During the recession, companies slashed work forces, cut or froze workers' pay and took other aggressive steps to reduce costs.

Companies are expected to increase hiring in the month ahead.

Employers probably added 175,000 new jobs in February, economists predict. That would mark an improvement from an anemic 36,000 in January when snowstorms and bad weather hurt job gains. The government releases the employment report for February on Friday.

At the same time, economists think the unemployment rate edged up to 9.1 percent in February as more jobseekers — perhaps feeling better about their prospects — stream into the labor market looking for work.

Stronger job creation is needed to steadily reduce unemployment. The economy needs to produce at least 200,000 a month on a consistent basis for that to happen.

Thursday's report also showed the number of people receiving unemployment benefits dropped to 3.77 million, the lowest level since mid-October 2008.

That doesn't include millions of people enrolled in emergency unemployment benefit programs funded by the federal government. Another 4.5 million unemployed workers received benefits under the extended programs during the ending Feb. 12, the latest data available. Altogether, 9.2 million people were on the benefit rolls that week.

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  4. A couple of thoughts on some of the information presented here from someone with a bit of experience in this area: First, Does anyone remember a time in the past 35 years when insurance premiums DIDN'T increase? They increase every year. The more rigorous rate review requirements of the Affordable Care Act (effective in 2011) have likely caused those increases to moderate as they have averaged below 10% for the past few years, down from much higer averages in prior years. Second, Oregon will operate a state-based Exchange. Recently, they were one of the first states to release their proposed (not yet reviewed by regulators)premium rates -- our first view of Exchange rates. After 2 insurers saw their competitors' rates, they pulled theirs back and re-submitted LOWER rates. In my nearly 10 years as a state insurance regulator, and two years as a federal regulator, I don't ever recall an insurer voluntarily lowering its rates. THAT'S the kind of transparency and competition the online marketplaces (Exchanges) will bring about. 3) ...and this is just a random thought: A big concern among health policy experts is the capacity of the primary care provider community to handle the happy fact that a large number of individuals will be newly-insured under the Affordable Care Act. With the system being stretched so thin for INSURED individuals, It seems highly doubtful that more than a very few "cash-and-carry" physicians will be able to survive in the new, improved healthcare system. Sally McCarty Center on Health Insurance Reform Georgetown University Health Policy Institute

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