IBJNews

Economist: U.S. recovery ‘turning a corner’

Back to TopCommentsE-mailPrintBookmark and Share

Manufacturing growth will continue to lead an economic recovery in the United States, predicted PNC Financial Services Group senior economist Robert Dye, in town Wednesday to deliver his forecast at Meridian Hills Country Club.

“It does look like here in 2011 the U.S. economy is turning a corner from a government-aided recovery to a self-sustaining one,” Dye said in an interview ahead of his talk, which was sponsored by the Indiana Manufacturers Association and Purdue University’s Manufacturing Extension Partnership.

Dye predicted growth of 3 percent to 3.5 percent in the gross domestic product, which is enough to fuel a slow decline in unemployment and better consumer confidence while creating a floor under housing prices.

Manufacturing has led the recovery so far, and Dye doesn’t see that changing. The earthquake in Japan might lead to “bottlenecks” in the automotive industry, he said, but it could also be an opportunity for U.S. automakers to gain market share.

Dye did have a word of caution about gas prices, which are a major factor for Indiana’s recreational vehicle industry. “We’re one geopolitical event away from $150 per barrel oil,” he said. “This remains a risk-prone situation we’re going to monitor.”

Not every sector has benefited from the global demand that has driven manufacturing growth so far. Noting that office vacancy rates are falling, Dye predicts that commercial construction will pick up late in the year, and that bodes well for steel and office-furniture makers.

PNC Financial Services Group is based in Pittsburgh.
 

ADVERTISEMENT

Post a comment to this story

COMMENTS POLICY
We reserve the right to remove any post that we feel is obscene, profane, vulgar, racist, sexually explicit, abusive, or hateful.
 
You are legally responsible for what you post and your anonymity is not guaranteed.
 
Posts that insult, defame, threaten, harass or abuse other readers or people mentioned in IBJ editorial content are also subject to removal. Please respect the privacy of individuals and refrain from posting personal information.
 
No solicitations, spamming or advertisements are allowed. Readers may post links to other informational websites that are relevant to the topic at hand, but please do not link to objectionable material.
 
We may remove messages that are unrelated to the topic, encourage illegal activity, use all capital letters or are unreadable.
 

Messages that are flagged by readers as objectionable will be reviewed and may or may not be removed. Please do not flag a post simply because you disagree with it.

Sponsored by
ADVERTISEMENT

facebook - twitter on Facebook & Twitter

Follow on TwitterFollow IBJ on Facebook:
Follow on TwitterFollow IBJ's Tweets on these topics:
 
Subscribe to IBJ
  1. So as I read this the one question that continues to come to me to ask is. Didn't Indiana only have a couple of exchanges for people to opt into which were very high because we really didn't want to expect the plan. So was this study done during that time and if so then I can understand these numbers. I also understand that we have now opened up for more options for hoosiers to choose from. Please correct if I'm wrong and if I'm not why was this not part of the story so that true overview could be taken away and not just parts of it to continue this negative tone against the ACA. I look forward to the clarity.

  2. It's really very simple. All forms of transportation are subsidized. All of them. Your tax money already goes toward every single form of transportation in the state. It is not a bad thing to put tax money toward mass transit. The state spends over 1,000,000,000 (yes billion) on roadway expansions and maintenance every single year. If you want to cry foul over anything cry foul over the overbuilding of highways which only serve people who can afford their own automobile.

  3. So instead of subsidizing a project with a market-driven scope, you suggest we subsidize a project that is way out of line with anything that can be economically sustainable just so we can have a better-looking skyline?

  4. Downtowner, if Cummins isn't getting expedited permitting and tax breaks to "do what they do", then I'd be happy with letting the market decide. But that isn't the case, is it?

  5. Patty, this commuter line provides a way for workers (willing to work lower wages) to get from Marion county to Hamilton county. These people are running your restaurants, hotels, hospitals, and retail stores. I don't see a lot of residents of Carmel working these jobs.

ADVERTISEMENT