Iran attacks pose threat to US economy if conflict drags on
Should the conflict wind down in a week or two, its economic effects would be minor and short-lived, economists say.
Economy
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IBJ Podcast: Pete the Planner on student loan collections, recessions, stagflation (and holding our breath)
As the U.S. economy contracts, consumer confidence weakens and we await the impact of tariffs, millions of student loan holders must redirect their income to payments. Pete Dunn helps us get a footing in this economic limbo.
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Cummins withdraws 2025 financial guidance over tariff uncertainty
Cummins Inc. has become the latest in a string of companies to withdraw its 2025 guidance.
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UPDATE: Lawmakers expect ‘tough’ budget cuts to offset $2.4B drop in projected revenue
An updated revenue forecast presented to the Budget Committee projected the state’s revenue will flatline from 2025 to 2027.
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Powell: Fed still sees rate cuts this year; election timing won’t affect decision
The recent pickup in inflation has led some economists to postpone their projections for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates.
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Articles
Trump expects his Fed pick and AI to deliver replay of the ’90s boom, but economists have doubts
The story the Trump team is telling — that a visionary Federal Reserve chair, Alan Greenspan, fueled the 1990s boom by keeping interest rates low — is incomplete at best.
IMF sees ‘buoyant’ US economy accelerating this year but warns of risks
The 191-country lending organization’s assessment of the world’s biggest economy was mostly positive.
Home Depot tops expectations in 4th quarter, but customers pull back on spending
Home Depot and other retailers have seen customers cut back on their spending amid concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty.
Consumer confidence improves after sinking the previous month
The measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market rose four points, to 72.
Fed’s Waller says rate cut in March is ‘coin flip’ following strong US jobs report
Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller also said that the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down many of Trump’s tariffs would likely have only a limited impact on the economy and inflation, and therefore wouldn’t affect his view on rates.
US economic growth weaker than thought in 4th quarter with government shutdown, consumer pullback
The figures point to a more modest pace of growth in the coming quarters, as consumers take on more debt and cut back on saving to maintain their spending.
There’s one industry powering the U.S. labor market
Without health care and related jobs, the United States would have nearly 400,000 fewer jobs than it did a year ago, according to Labor Department figures through January.
US homes sales fell sharply in January, even as mortgage rates continued to ease
Sales had their biggest annual and monthly drop in the West, which wasn’t as affect by last month’s winter storm as the other regions of the country.
Federal deficits and debt to worsen over next decade, report says
Notably, the Congressional Budget Office says higher tariffs partially offset some of those increases by raising federal revenue by $3 trillion, but that also comes with higher inflation from 2026 to 2029.
Retail sales unchanged in December from November, closing out year on a lackluster tone
The report, issued by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, surprised economists who were looking for growth despite concerns about slowing job growth and other economic headwinds.
Retail operator of outdoor sportswear pioneer Eddie Bauer files for bankruptcy
The company — which has five stores in Indiana — noted that it will conduct a court-supervised sales process, and if a sale can’t be executed, it will begin a wind-down of its U.S. and Canadian operations.
Trump sees a hot economy as midterm elections approach
President Donald Trump said at a recent Cabinet meeting that the economy could hit growth “numbers that have never been hit before.”
Wealthy ramp up spending while other Americans tread water, new study finds
Higher-income Americans and those with college degrees have ramped up their spending more quickly in the past three years than other consumers, according to new data.
Paralyzing winter storms put big chill on US economy, but how much?
Getting a handle on the disruption costs of winter weather disasters isn’t as easy as, say, calculating the value of buildings destroyed by hurricanes, floods and fires.
Wall Street pulls back from its records as JPMorgan Chase and Delta kick off earnings season
U.S. companies are under pressure to deliver strong growth in profits to justify the runs to records their stock prices have made.
Trump visits Ford plant and defends his tariffs, hoping to counter jitters about the economy
“All U.S. automakers are doing great,” Trump said.
Inflation cooled slightly in December–though it remains above Fed’s target
Signs that inflation is cooling could make it more likely that the Federal Reserve will reduce its key interest rate later this year, which could translate into lower borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.
Fed served with DOJ subpoenas; Powell vows to stand firm
The unprecedented move by the Trump administration marks an escalation of the president’s longstanding feud with the central bank’s chair, though Trump denied having any knowledge of an investigation.
December interest rate cut was a close call for some Fed officials, minutes show
The minutes showed that even some Fed officials who supported the rate cut did so with reservations, with some saying they wanted to wait for more data before making any further moves.