IBJOpinion

MARCUS: The recovery has taken root

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Morton Marcus

From Madison to Merrillville and Elkhart to Evansville, the talk among businesspeople is positive. Customers are showing more interest, orders are picking up. The data may not be there to support the good cheer, but economic data are always delayed. A business may know what is happening up to the minute, but the public does not learn about general economic conditions for days, weeks or months after events have taken place.

Recent meetings I’ve attended and conversations I’ve had indicate that a business recovery is in progress across Indiana. There is more laughter and less anxiety. However, there is little talk of expanding employment. Confidence has not reached that level as yet.

This recession has cut deeply into employment statewide. In the past two years, we have lost more than 190,000 jobs. Our state’s employment level (at 2.8 million jobs) is the lowest since 1994. As usual, there are considerable differences across the state’s 14 metropolitan areas.

Anderson, Kokomo, Michigan City-LaPorte and Muncie did not have a single year since 1990 with employment as low as in 2009. Each of the 14 metro areas had fewer jobs in 2009 than in 2007, but Elkhart-Goshen was hit hardest (down 17 percent) followed by Kokomo, with a decline of 13 percent. At the same time, Columbus and Lafayette hardly felt a job decline; both were within 1 percent of their 2007 job levels.

Bloomington, Columbus, Indianapolis and Lafayette were the only metro areas with more jobs in 2009 than they had 10 years earlier. Evansville, Fort Wayne and Gary were within 5 percent of their 1999 levels; South Bend and Terre Haute were within 10 percent of those levels of a decade ago.

How far back must these metro areas go to reach their previous peak job levels? For Bloomington, Columbus and Lafayette, the answer is to just 2008. Indianapolis has to regain its 2007 level, while Elkhart-Goshen needs to reach back to 2006 and Evansville to 2005. The journey for the rest of the metro areas is even longer.

Both Michigan City-LaPorte and South Bend had their last job peaks in 2000. Gary, Kokomo and Terre Haute must each reach back a decade to 1999. Anderson and Muncie saw their job peaks in 1995. In each of those seven areas, there is much more than the recent recession to overcome.

Nonetheless, recovery is at hand. It will be most rapid for those firms that did themselves the least damage in the recession. While most firms reduced employment, some cut deeply and lost valuable, experienced personnel. Those companies now face an up-turn handicapped by their own aggressive cost-cutting.

Some of their experienced workers have or will find jobs with former competitors. These workers are ready to take on their old companies with the special zeal of the spurned.

As new orders come in, companies that thought they were going to become lean and mean will discover they have only turned meek and weak. They have become ill-equipped to offer the service and detailed attention that former customers came to expect when times were good. Customers placing new orders can be impatient with former suppliers who no longer offer superior attention to their demands. The pressures of a newly revitalized market can test the flexibility of those who sat through the recession and lost their initiative.

These times will test the management skills of Hoosier companies. Often it is clear how to contract. Expanding once again, however, does not necessarily mean returning to a previous arrangement of resources.

A former dean at Indiana University often said business is like playing the accordion. You must learn how to make sweet music while expanding and contracting.•

__________

Marcus taught economics for more than 30 years at Indiana University and is the former director of IU’s Business Research Center. His column appears weekly. He can be reached at mmarcus@ibj.com.

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  1. Apologies for the wall of text. I promise I had this nicely formatted in paragraphs in Notepad before pasting here.

  2. I believe that is incorrect Sir, the people's tax-dollars are NOT paying for the companies investment. Without the tax-break the company would be paying an ADDITIONAL $11.1 million in taxes ON TOP of their $22.5 Million investment (Building + IT), for a total of $33.6M or a 50% tax rate. Also, the article does not specify what the total taxes were BEFORE the break. Usually such a corporate tax-break is a 'discount' not a 100% wavier of tax obligations. For sake of example lets say the original taxes added up to $30M over 10 years. $12.5M, New Building $10.0M, IT infrastructure $30.0M, Total Taxes (Example Number) == $52.5M ININ's Cost - $1.8M /10 years, Tax Break (Building) - $0.75M /10 years, Tax Break (IT Infrastructure) - $8.6M /2 years, Tax Breaks (against Hiring Commitment: 430 new jobs /2 years) == 11.5M Possible tax breaks. ININ TOTAL COST: $41M Even if you assume a 100% break, change the '30.0M' to '11.5M' and you can see the Company will be paying a minimum of $22.5, out-of-pocket for their capital-investment - NOT the tax-payers. Also note, much of this money is being spent locally in Indiana and it is creating 430 jobs in your city. I admit I'm a little unclear which tax-breaks are allocated to exactly which expenses. Clearly this is all oversimplified but I think we have both made our points! :) Sorry for the long post.

  3. Clearly, there is a lack of a basic understanding of economics. It is not up to the company to decide what to pay its workers. If companies were able to decide how much to pay their workers then why wouldn't they pay everyone minimum wage? Why choose to pay $10 or $14 when they could pay $7? The answer is that companies DO NOT decide how much to pay workers. It is the market that dictates what a worker is worth and how much they should get paid. If Lowe's chooses to pay a call center worker $7 an hour it will not be able to hire anyone for the job, because all those people will work for someone else paying the market rate of $10-$14 an hour. This forces Lowes to pay its workers that much. Not because it wants to pay them that much out of the goodness of their heart, but because it has to pay them that much in order to stay competitive and attract good workers.

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  5. It is sad to see these races not have a full attendance. The Indy Car races are so much more exciting than Nascar. It seems to me the commenters here are still a little upset with Tony George from a move he made 20 years ago. It was his decision to make, not yours. He lost his position over it. But I believe the problem in all pro sports is the escalating price of admission. In todays economy, people have to pay much more for food and gas. The average fan cannot attend many events anymore. It's gotten priced out of most peoples budgets.

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