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Republic soars as lower fuel costs prompt analyst upgrade

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Shares of Republic Airways Holdings Inc. enjoyed a 22-percent rocket ride on Monday after a stock analyst gave the beleaguered airline an upgrade and as the price of jet fuel crept downward.

The Indianapolis-based airline also took a step forward on its integration of two recently acquired airlines, as a key pilots union decided to join the Teamsters.

Republic’s stock closed Monday at $5.67, up more than $1 per share from last week. The stock gave back nearly 6 percent of that gain in trading Tuesday morning, trading as low as $5.33 per share.

Republic, which built up a profitable business flying point-to-point routes for larger airlines, has stumbled since buying two scheduled-service carriers in 2009. It is still trying to integrate the operations of Denver-based Frontier Airlines and Milwaukee-based Midwest Airlines, all under the Frontier brand.

Those scheduled-service airlines now represent 60 percent of Republic’s business and led the company to a $22.4 million loss in its first quarter. As IBJ reported Monday, many analysts and investors have grown sour on the deal.

Republic also has been staggered by a run-up in jet-fuel prices that were about 50 percent higher this spring than the previous year. Republic has not hedged its fuel costs as much as some other airlines and, therefore, is more susceptible to price spikes.

But prices have been coming down, along with crude oil prices, giving Republic some relief. The shift caused Evercore Partners analyst Duane Pfennigwerth to issue a new forecast Monday, saying he now expects Republic’s 2012 earnings per share to be 90 cents, way up from his previous estimate of 35 cents.

The difference is almost entirely due to Pfennigwerth’s estimate that fuel prices will average $3 per gallon next year, instead of his previous estimate of $3.20 per gallon.

“RJET has the highest fuel leverage across our coverage list,” said Pfennigwerth, referring to Republic by its stock ticker symbol. “Small changes in fuel price assumptions drive large changes in EPS.”

Pfennigwerth, who is based in New York, said Republic’s stock price could hit $9 per share in a few months. He also praised Republic’s progress on reducing costs in its Frontier operation.

A big step came June 10 when Republic won pay freezes and benefits cuts from pilots, in exchange for an equity stake in Frontier. The agreement Monday for the pilots unions from Midwest and Frontier to jointly have Teamsters representation clears up what has been a major distraction for Republic’s management.

Also, it was reported last week that Republic had ordered 80 new jets from France-based Airbus and Montreal-based Bombardier, which will be more fuel-efficient than some of its current fleet.

 

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  • not a valid logic
    Europeans and others sometimes buy our jets, and we sometimes buy theirs. It's called capitalism & free market, we like to claim that we invented it.
  • Planes
    To good to buy planes from the US/no wonder jobs are going fast to other countrys

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  1. First, the Athenaeum is going to have to get past the hurdle with the Lockerbie residents and the agreement that the parcel would be residential. Second, and in my opinion, this prime piece of property should include parking, PLUS, a black box theater(s), some market rate and affordable artist housing and a plan to renovate and reconfigure the second story theater. I would negotiate to add the DeHaan property surface parking lot into the development mix, place a one story surface parking garage on the DeHaan lot on the street level (for the Dehaan tenants use during the daytime) and add a second story to the garage that would become an addition to the current second story theater and then change the direction of the theater by moving the stage across the alley and on top of the DeHaan lot parking. You can add all the stage elements that are currently missing from the Athenaeum stage to make it more attractive for use by Ballet, Opera and traveling productions. Plus, the theater changes would probably help solve some of the soundproofing issues. Alas,it does not seem to be a part of the strategic plan to conduct a study to determine best use of the property. Seems like the current plan is a quick and easy move that ignores the property best use/potential and any strategic property planning for the effect on future generations.

  2. I recall that MSA's pilings are still in the ground and hard to remove. It’s not likely any proposal will include significant underground construction/parking because of this. Start adding 2 floors of retail, 8 floors of parking and 5-10 floors of possible hotel, and/or 10-20 floors of residential, and you are at 30 floors already with possible expansion of all the uses. But then again I could be wrong.

  3. Accoriding to their website there is no deadline to the Do Not Call list. What is this article referring to??

  4. On what planet are they entitled to this largesse from the stockholders? These people make multi-million dollar salaries: Pay for your own personal travel.

  5. It matters because they're already paid enormously fat salaries: Pay for your own personal travel. Being "taxed on it" isn't a valid excuse--so what? They're still being gifted a raft of luxury perks from somebody else's money on top of an enormous, lavish salary.

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