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Reform offers risk, opportunities for Lilly, WellPoint

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Drugmakers like Eli Lilly and Co. and health insurers like WellPoint Inc. will gain millions of customers under legislation passed by the House Sunday night that overhauls the nation’s health care industry. But firms in the industry also will pay new fees to the government, and face stricter rules that may narrow profit margins and fuel mergers.

The bill that the House passed on a 220-211 vote Sunday night expands coverage to 32 million uninsured Americans, according to Congressional number crunchers.

The revamp will cost $940 billion over 10 years, with industry fees and taxes helping defray the cost of adding to the ranks of customers who can afford to pay their doctors, drugstores and hospitals. Because the legislation creates pressure to curb medical costs, companies may merge as a way to lower expenses, said Paul H. Keckley, executive director of the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, a Washington-based research firm.

“You have some that are able to manage more efficiently and strategically and some that can’t,” Keckley said. “You’ll see an acceleration of acquisitions.”

Investors in health care were cautiously optimistic in trading Monday. Lilly shares were trading late morning at $36.48, up 33 cents on the day. WellPoint stock was at $65.18, up 11 cents.

“We continue to believe money will rotate back into health care stocks now that the uncertainty of ‘reform’ is lifted,” Charles Boorady, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in New York, wrote in a report Monday.

Drugmakers, who took part early in negotiations with the Senate Finance Committee and the White House, may have the most to gain. More health-care coverage “makes a difference in demand for drug products,” said John L. Sullivan, an analyst at Leerink Swann & Co. in Boston. People won’t have to skip doses of medicines as frequently to save money, he said.

And while the industry pays $28 billion in fees over nine years to help the elderly afford drugs, it avoided requirements to have complicated pricing agreements with the government in Medicare, the program for the elderly and disabled, said Ramsey Baghdadi, a researcher at the analysis firm Prevision Policy LLC in Washington, D.C., who specializes in pharmaceutical and biotechnology policy.

For health insurers, the potential increase in customers will be tempered by subsidy cuts for custom Medicare Advantage plans offered to the elderly, and the prospect of new regulations. The industry, through its trade group America’s Health Insurance Plans, argued as recently as March 18 that the legislation won’t control costs and that people will still wait until they’re sick to buy coverage.

Lilly and other players in biotechnology won 12 years of protection from generic medicines derived from proteins. The generics industry, on the other hand, won a reprieve from a proposed ban on legal settlements where they receive payments from brand-name manufacturers to delay introduction of the cheaper copies.

“The drug industry is probably a bit better off.,” Sullivan said. “And for managed care I think it’s a function of what happens with the individual mandate and how easy or hard it is to keep healthy people in the insurance pool.”

The Standard & Poor’s index of 51 health-care stocks has risen 5.1 percent from this year’s low on Feb. 8, the day President Barack Obama announced he was inviting Democratic and Republican lawmakers to the White House to discuss ways to get the overhaul through Congress. No Republicans voted for the measure Sunday.

The legislation requires Americans to get insurance, offering government aid and new purchasing exchanges to help. WellPoint and other insurers would get millions of new policyholders, while being required to accept all customers, even with pre-existing conditions.

It won’t be easy sailing for the insurance industry, said Matthew Borsch, an analyst with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, in a research note March 18. The legislation “entails significant risks,” and the companies that sell Medicare Advantage policies face subsidy cuts. America’s Health Insurance Plans, the Washington-based trade group, says $200 billion will be carved from those plans.

Also, the 2014 date for the insurance exchanges to start “leaves three and a half years to work through, and potentially modify, provisions that might undermine successful coverage expansion,” Borsch said.

Carl McDonald at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York sees that period fraught with risk.

“Much of what is included in the health reform bill is what is referred to as enabling legislation,” meaning the Health and Human Services secretary works out the details, he said in a note dated March 17. That is Kathleen Sebelius, who has “spent much of the past month trying to prove that managed care CEOs would deny a claim from their own mothers in order to improve their quarterly financial performance.”

 

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  1. liek the rest of America

  2. These quaint,obsessed musings by the stalkers are certainly entertaining, but I'm trying to figure out what, if anything, all the yelping below has to do with Zak Brown.

  3. It's evident that Moffett was pushing the right buttons and corporate America is now trying to squash him. He just wanted to withdraw the free pilot services provided to the company by the pilots to try and put some pressure on a company that has not been interested in negotiating a contract in over 5 years. The company does not provide a contract because not having one has saved them a bundle of money. Shame on any Republic pilots not standing behind their union leader just because things are getting tough, can you not see such strategic moves by the company as putting the last union president in a corporate position and into THEIR pocket. Do you really believe the last union president is so appalled at the attempts by Moffett, do you not remember his oppositions to the company? We stood behind him. It has been proven over and over again for thousands of years without fail, a man cannot serve two masters. Anyone that believes people vote contrary to their paycheck and livelihood deserve to be taken advantage of, the recent statements by the former union president are laughable as he denounces the current union president from his new corporate position. Have you ever seen a drafted sports player score points for his previous team, it cannot be done, he is not on the pilots side anymore, he gets his money a different way now than you and I do, and he should not be allowed to remain on the seniority list. A drafted player brings strength, credibility, tactical knowledge, and a strategic advantage to his NEW team, he would not be drafted or paid were it otherwise. We are all forced to choose only one side to play for and support, not doing so has many references in life such as insider trading and shaving points, all illegal for good reason. This basic fact is why corporate moguls, scientist, and engineers all sign non-discloser agreements and non-compete clauses, as protection in case they are lured into switching sides as our former union president has done. No NFL coach ever drafted a player so that both teams could benefit and better understand each other, they are recruited to win the game against that former team, period. Likewise the company does not recruit the former union president by accident or mutual understanding, its strategy. Don't confuse playing the game with good sportsman-like conduct in support of common business and prosperity goals, with the requirement to only play for one side. Good men we all love and favor fall subject to this manipulation, often without their knowledge, and it is not a betrayal of their friendship to oppose them when they switch sides. If we did not love and trust them, they would not have been chosen and lured to the other side in the first place. The deception by the drafted player is not made at a conscious level, it's just human nature and it's all about money and power which corrupts our ability to be objective and loyal to two masters. This is why our court system created the defense attorney, and why our military created counter intelligence. Its strategy and its propaganda, and it works, and that's why the "powers to be" manipulate the chess pieces by sometimes changing their colors. Some players know they are being manipulated when their color is changed, but it brings them more money and power so they do not care. The rest have good intentions but do not even realize they are being manipulated. This tactic is also known by another name, Divide and Conquer. In battle sending an imperfect message with an imperfect team is obviously not ideal, but it's still being sent by YOUR team, your union leader, a leader that has common goals and common rewards with you, they are the best, because we have elected them to do a job for us. If you are not backing Moffett but believing the spin by those that have recently switched sides, you are taking food out of your own mouth. Showing unity and backing an imperfect situation still results in taking just as much ground, it's about unity and bargaining power. It's not necessary to wait around for that perfect attack because it will never come, the company will spin and attempt to destroy anyone that gets in their way. Ultimately it's not about any specific attack anyway, ASAP or whatever it makes no difference, it is and always has been only about power. If this company cared about safety it would not build pairings with 8 hour overnights, come on, are you that naive? Besides, do you really think Hoffa cares, no, he got a call from corporate America and was squeezed into denouncing Moffett. If he didn't they would spin the safety card against him and the Teamsters National with implication for truckers, future contracts, insurance rates etc...saying something like the Teamsters use safety as a bargaining chip, blah blah blah... Do you really think any pilot is going to do something unsafe for the contract, absolutely not, the only ones threatening safety here is the company with reduced rest, fatigue, and poverty. Do you not find it odd that Hoffa and the Teamsters are opposing a Teamster president publicly? Would the Teamsters National not normally support and work with one of their own? Why did they not sit down and help him strategize, correct any mistakes, and charge ahead? Would the Teamsters National not normally support and leverage a contract for all those pilots that have been paying Teamster dues, isn't that why we have all been paying Teamster dues in the first place? I sure haven't been paying dues so that the Teamsters National could come along and write this kind of an article undercutting our union leader and our unity. Whose side is the Teamsters National really on, it's obviously not the Republic pilots side.

  4. No matter what Moffatt does the company is going to spin it like he is the terrorist and brainwash people like you into believing it, wake up, back your players that are trying to change things for you and your livelihood. Where has Hoffa been for the last 6 years, except collecting our dues. Seriously, do you really think an FO going for upgrade, signed off by a checkairman ready for the upgrade, who then fails, is not even capable of returning as a First Officer.

  5. whoa!

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