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Reform offers risk, opportunities for Lilly, WellPoint

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Drugmakers like Eli Lilly and Co. and health insurers like WellPoint Inc. will gain millions of customers under legislation passed by the House Sunday night that overhauls the nation’s health care industry. But firms in the industry also will pay new fees to the government, and face stricter rules that may narrow profit margins and fuel mergers.

The bill that the House passed on a 220-211 vote Sunday night expands coverage to 32 million uninsured Americans, according to Congressional number crunchers.

The revamp will cost $940 billion over 10 years, with industry fees and taxes helping defray the cost of adding to the ranks of customers who can afford to pay their doctors, drugstores and hospitals. Because the legislation creates pressure to curb medical costs, companies may merge as a way to lower expenses, said Paul H. Keckley, executive director of the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, a Washington-based research firm.

“You have some that are able to manage more efficiently and strategically and some that can’t,” Keckley said. “You’ll see an acceleration of acquisitions.”

Investors in health care were cautiously optimistic in trading Monday. Lilly shares were trading late morning at $36.48, up 33 cents on the day. WellPoint stock was at $65.18, up 11 cents.

“We continue to believe money will rotate back into health care stocks now that the uncertainty of ‘reform’ is lifted,” Charles Boorady, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in New York, wrote in a report Monday.

Drugmakers, who took part early in negotiations with the Senate Finance Committee and the White House, may have the most to gain. More health-care coverage “makes a difference in demand for drug products,” said John L. Sullivan, an analyst at Leerink Swann & Co. in Boston. People won’t have to skip doses of medicines as frequently to save money, he said.

And while the industry pays $28 billion in fees over nine years to help the elderly afford drugs, it avoided requirements to have complicated pricing agreements with the government in Medicare, the program for the elderly and disabled, said Ramsey Baghdadi, a researcher at the analysis firm Prevision Policy LLC in Washington, D.C., who specializes in pharmaceutical and biotechnology policy.

For health insurers, the potential increase in customers will be tempered by subsidy cuts for custom Medicare Advantage plans offered to the elderly, and the prospect of new regulations. The industry, through its trade group America’s Health Insurance Plans, argued as recently as March 18 that the legislation won’t control costs and that people will still wait until they’re sick to buy coverage.

Lilly and other players in biotechnology won 12 years of protection from generic medicines derived from proteins. The generics industry, on the other hand, won a reprieve from a proposed ban on legal settlements where they receive payments from brand-name manufacturers to delay introduction of the cheaper copies.

“The drug industry is probably a bit better off.,” Sullivan said. “And for managed care I think it’s a function of what happens with the individual mandate and how easy or hard it is to keep healthy people in the insurance pool.”

The Standard & Poor’s index of 51 health-care stocks has risen 5.1 percent from this year’s low on Feb. 8, the day President Barack Obama announced he was inviting Democratic and Republican lawmakers to the White House to discuss ways to get the overhaul through Congress. No Republicans voted for the measure Sunday.

The legislation requires Americans to get insurance, offering government aid and new purchasing exchanges to help. WellPoint and other insurers would get millions of new policyholders, while being required to accept all customers, even with pre-existing conditions.

It won’t be easy sailing for the insurance industry, said Matthew Borsch, an analyst with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, in a research note March 18. The legislation “entails significant risks,” and the companies that sell Medicare Advantage policies face subsidy cuts. America’s Health Insurance Plans, the Washington-based trade group, says $200 billion will be carved from those plans.

Also, the 2014 date for the insurance exchanges to start “leaves three and a half years to work through, and potentially modify, provisions that might undermine successful coverage expansion,” Borsch said.

Carl McDonald at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York sees that period fraught with risk.

“Much of what is included in the health reform bill is what is referred to as enabling legislation,” meaning the Health and Human Services secretary works out the details, he said in a note dated March 17. That is Kathleen Sebelius, who has “spent much of the past month trying to prove that managed care CEOs would deny a claim from their own mothers in order to improve their quarterly financial performance.”

 

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  1. The Fringe! Plus, the simple fact that there are so many local faves in such close proximity to each other.

  2. I remenber, watching the toll road, being built, through South Bend, when I was 10 years old. I believe, back then that it was estimated, that the toll road, would be paid for in 20 years and then it would be free. I am now 71, what happened? Since the power is in the people, by that, I mean that, we the people are in total control of everything. I, suggest that no one ever use the toll road again, let it go broke. We the people can control the price of everything, from groceries to gas, if we would just do it. If we don't pay the asking price, the sellers will lower the price and if we wait awhile, they will lower the price to what we accept as reasonable. I would like to know why a highway like interstate 94, is so well maintained, a much better highway, than the toll road, but has no tolls. I would also like to know why, a sitting governor, with a term limit, maximum of eight years, can lease, public property, for 75 years. Even though I have transponders in both of my trucks and will not be affected by the increase, I have been and will contine to avoid using the toll road. I make many trips from northern Indiana to Chicago, every year, and I prefer the better highway, I94!

  3. Coming from her background,she should be used to those kinds of advances! Menard probably figured it was ok to tuck a buck!

  4. I'm still waiting for the list of available, high quality apartments in the Village.

  5. This criminal masquerading as a lawyer obviously has serious issues. He’s been proven by his own testimony to be a pathological liar and probably has a personality disorder as he seems to be constructing a reality around himself. He places no value on truth, honesty or loyalty as evidenced by what he has done to his clients and his own family. And by the demands and lies he has made in court, it is evident he feels entitled to do and say whatever suits his purpose and everyone else is expected to nod obediently and believe him because he is, after all, Bill Super Lawyer; or BS lawyer for short. This millionaire wanna-be no longer owns anything of value; he squandered it and put everything he had into foreclosure. He has no money, house, car, boat or vacation home left to show for what he earned or what he stole. He’s just another loser without morals who will be doing time. I’m certain all of his courtroom shenanigans are antagonizing his poor victims. As Lamar said, his behavior and claims in court have been outrageous. The judge needs to be more than concerned; he needs to be judicial and end this nonsense.

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