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Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky famously said, “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” as his explanation for consistently leading the National Hockey League in shots on goal.
The saying has become one of the most memorable sports quotes in modern history, further cemented in pop culture by Michael Scott, Steve Carrell’s character in NBC’s “The Office,” over a quarter-century later. Barely 20%—589 of 2,789—of The Great One’s shot attempts ultimately cashed in, but a four-out-of-five miss rate didn’t stop him from his widely accepted designation as the greatest to ever play his sport.
That aggressive attitude from Gretzky, who started his Hall of Fame professional career with the Indianapolis Racers, has differed greatly from how the Indianapolis Colts have approached their recent quarterback conundrum. In each of the last three offseasons, the Colts have spent their time and draft capital sifting through veteran cast-offs instead of aggressively pursuing long-term solutions at the position.
Those bridge quarterback decisions have produced declining results, starting with decent (Philip Rivers) in 2020, then disappointing (Carson Wentz) in 2021, to downright disastrous (Matt Ryan) this past fall. Whether it be through retirement, trade or benching, none of those options lasted more than one season.
Jim Irsay has been insistent that he wanted to “go young” after Rivers, but whether that’s the truth or just an owner trying to save face for his franchise’s descent to mediocrity, it doesn’t matter—taking a big swing at quarterback is not the route the Colts ultimately chose. Now, as the Colts peruse their offseason options at the position, there is no other choice to make: They have to swing, and they have to swing big.
Do they meet the hefty price they’ll have to pay for Lamar Jackson, a proven commodity with some durability problems? Or do they place their bet on an unknown rookie in the NFL Draft later this month?
Batter up.
“It’s a league right now of ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ when it comes to quarterbacks, and the Colts are in the latter category,” said Stephen Holder, who covers the Colts for ESPN.com. “You have to have that weapon at quarterback to be relevant in today’s NFL, and the only way to fix that is to make a big leap at that position.”
A potential Jackson deal would certainly be a leap for the Colts organization. At just 26 years old, Jackson already has an MVP under his belt and has been one of the most dynamic playmakers in the league. However, Baltimore will have the option to either match any offer he gets or receive significant draft compensation for letting him go elsewhere. Under Jackson’s non-exclusive franchise tag, the Ravens have allowed him to negotiate with other teams, like the Colts, but the Ravens are entitled to two first-round draft picks from any team that signs him.
Signing him could be expensive. He reportedly turned down $133 million guaranteed over three years last month and is seeking something closer to the $220 million guaranteed deal Deshaun Watson signed with Cleveland last year.
There’s no telling what the actual price tag would be for Indy, which would be paying him during his prime years. Still, the bevy of draft picks and hundreds of millions in guaranteed money is a heavy ask for a signal-caller who has seen each of his last two seasons end early with injuries.
It would also be completely out of character for Irsay, who railed against guaranteed deals at the NFL owners meetings last week in Arizona, and especially for General Manager Chris Ballard, who usually hoards salary-cap savings each spring like I do Cadbury mini eggs.
Even with a large financial commitment and fewer draft picks to plug other gaping holes on the roster, you could confidently claim that acquiring a healthy Jackson would solve Indy’s quarterback problem. There’s less confidence when it comes to the NFL Draft, where the recent results have been a crapshoot. Of the 40 first-round quarterbacks selected since 2010, only Patrick Mahomes has been a Super Bowl winner and only four others—Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and the aforementioned Jackson—would currently be considered franchise-level players. Former top picks Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray are still in the To Be Determined category, and a few others, like 2015 MVP Cam Newton or Andrew Luck, were very-good-to-elite for stretches. That overall group, however, has produced far more misses than hits, especially when you take the No. 1 picks out of the equation.
That’s a hurdle for the Colts, who have no control over the draft board and might not get their top choice, a noted departure for a team that has never drafted a first-round quarterback who wasn’t the No. 1 overall selection in their Indianapolis history.
“I think there’s an irrational expectation that comes from the last two first-round quarterbacks being Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck,” said Holder. “This is a very different situation than the last two times, because this class doesn’t include a ‘slam dunk’ player.
“The Colts could wind up being like a lot of teams in having a first-round quarterback who you have no idea if he’s going to be good or not.”
While there might not be a “can’t miss” quarterback, there are four well-regarded prospects in this class. The Colts will likely be choosing between one of the best quarterback athletes in NFL Draft history in Florida’s Anthony Richardson or another with a big arm who talks an even bigger game in Kentucky’s Will Levis.
After turning in a historic NFL Combine performance in February and the highest Relative Athletic Score at the position ever, Richardson has some scouts drooling. However, accuracy shortcomings—he completed just over 54% of his passes at Florida—and a small sample size of actual on-field play (only 13 collegiate starts) gives others pause. Accuracy questions also plague Levis, who has the experience Richardson lacks (38 games and five years in college) but is the only one of the four top quarterbacks to earn a second-round grade by some draft evaluators.
There’s also the possibility of trading back and taking Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker, but at 25 years old and coming off a season-ending injury, old and injured doesn’t exactly scream future franchise quarterback.
Just about everything had to go wrong for the Colts last season to put them in position to draft a quarterback early, but while they may be in position to take a big swing, that doesn’t mean they’ll connect. Hell, look at the Jets, who struck out twice on top-five picks in Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson in the last five classes.
But whether it be Jackson or a draft prospect, the Colts can’t continue being content with watching pitches go by every year. If Irsay and Ballard are waiting around for the next perfect prospect like Manning or Luck, they’ll be waiting around forever.
Any decision made at quarterback carries a significant amount of risk, but an NFL team solving that position requires the confidence to take that shot in the dark. The Chiefs trading up for Patrick Mahomes, who drew comparisons to Jay Cutler as a prospect in 2017, was a big swing. The Bills drafting Josh Allen, a quarterback who completed only 56% of his passes at Wyoming, was as well. Both ended up being home runs.
If the Colts want to hit on their next QB, they’re going to have to step up to the plate.•
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From Peyton Manning’s peak with the Colts to the Pacers’ most recent roster makeover, Schultz has talked about it all as a sports personality in Indianapolis for more than 15 years. Besides his written work with IBJ, he’s active in podcasting and show hosting. You can follow him on Twitter, @Schultz975.
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No Lamar Jackson please. He’s a locker room cancer and a short timer. Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Kyrie Irving all come to mind
How did we decide this: “There’s no telling what the actual price tag would be for Indy, which would be paying him during his prime years.” Colin Kaepernick is the most likely comparable (little smaller than Lamar, though). CK did well when he was 24-26. But, starting in 2014, when he was 26-27 yo, he went 8-8 (’14, 26-27 yo), then 3-6 (’15, 27-28 yo), and 2-10 (’16, 28-29 yo). While I appreciate Jackson, I think it is highly debatable that an athlete like him is guaranteed to be in his prime years as a QB. And, the price tag ($133MM+ and 2 1st round picks) might hamstring the organization. I like Jackson way better than Rivers, Wentz, or Ryan. But, it’s conceivable they could be best off with the next Jalen Hurts to come out of the draft, especially with cap-friendly rookie contracts. [But, maybe follow the Redskins lead, and hedge your bets by trying to draft both RGIII and Kirk Cousins in the same draft, in case one gets hurt.]
All great points. Jackson’s durability is the #1 concern. If he’s healthy, then those would be his prime years… but that’s a huge “if”, no doubt.