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Enough of this “Breaking News”. Just put on site and anyone that cares will look.
You’re the one that clicked through.
There’s a really good compilation at https://www.facebook.com/hoosiercovid/
.
It provides a lot of data visualizations that are helpful in understanding the trends. The creator’s disclaimer on the page:
.
THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT PAGE.
It is just one guy using publicly available data to help make sense of the trajectory of COVID-19 in the state of Indiana. Also the weather because if spring doesn’t get here soon I just can’t even.
I am a Pulmonary and Critical Care Physician in Indianapolis who is sidelined from caring for COVID for family reasons. I do it to help myself cope with the pandemic and get rid of nervous energy and sometimes I write a little commentary about how things are going.
I know nothing more than anyone else about this whole thing; I’m just muddling through with everyone else.
Posts now occur M-W-F, with occasional posts other days if stuff happens that warrants it.
So, IBJ, can you show us the trend lines please of positive cases, hospital admits, and deaths. Also report hospital ICU excess capacity.
The “news” is in those relationships.
Can you also please find out how many of those who are dying have underlying health conditions. This all important information has been deftly concealed from the public and you are complicit in its concealment.
Any newspaper worth its salt (in the era before the media being politically correct) would be insistent on learning AND publishing this fact. And if stonewalled by the government would have protested loudly this denial of freedom of information.
Are you familiar with the Google? There’s lots of sources with graphs.
https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/indiana
https://www.regenstrief.org/covid-dashboard/
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/indiana-coronavirus-cases.html
https://rt.live/
Mark, most of what you’re asking for is included every day in this report, which we have consistently published since the beginning of the pandemic to show the daily numbers announced by the health department. This is not meant to be an investigative piece, but it does include trends in cases and deaths. It also shows ICU capacity every day. We also include a link every day to the health department COVID-19 page, where much more data is available, including hospitalizations.
It should also be noted that the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) was a steady 5.7% thru early June.
Since then it has been running at less than 2.5%.
But that’s the average.
The CRF is about 28% for those over 80 whose deaths are being hastened by the virus, and about .2% for those under 60 — and much less for those under 60 WITHOUT underlying health conditions.
By my reckoning, the IFR (INFECTION fatality rate) for those under 60 — including those WITH underlying conditions is about .035% or 1 in 3,000.
By comparison, the lifetime odds of dying of chronic lower respiratory disease is 1 in 26; car crash 1 in 106; drowning 1 in 1,121.
Good thing we’ve impaired our economy for a generation and completely disrupted life as we know it ….
Mark, can you also include the number of patients left with health issues like lung damage, heart damage, or fatigue long after they didn’t die?
Put another way … there’s more to it than dying. You could even say that this all important information has been deftly concealed from the public and you are complicit in its concealment by focusing solely on the number of deaths. Any commenter worth its salt (in the era before people ignored facts they didn’t like) would be insistent on learning AND publishing these facts. And if stonewalled by the government would have protested loudly this denial of freedom of information.
Jeff –
Thank you for the reply. Yes, I’m aware of all you point out and appreciate your making it easy to access for all. I was really trying to spur a picture of the relationships between cases and the adverse consequences that are the aim of public policy — overrunning critical care capacity and fatalities.
The public (and public officials) are frightened by record new cases, but the + test rate holding constant, it is largely increased number of tests driving record known cases. The disconnect between case increase rate and negative consequence rate is really the more important relevant news — to me. And it’s certainly news per se.
What about getting the data on underlying health conditions for the fatalities. It certainly exists. Can IBJ get it and publish? Thanks again.
How about the people who may have serious issues but have not been able to see a doctor? Why don’t we start keeping a count of heart attack deaths, smoking deaths, or people who die from lack of exercise too? Yeah, and while we are counting , why not count COPD deaths and deaths by paper cuts?
The heart disease, cancer, etc. deaths are available from Mr. Google.
Joe …. I’m not sure what your point is. Yes this virus makes some people sick, kills a tiny number, and may leave others less healthy after infection.
Assuming that the number of fatalities are doubled before the end of the pandemic (320,000 fatalities) that will be .1% of the population. Assume 2x that amount has some residual health affect; that’s another .2% of the population. That means that 99.7% of the people in the country will be fine. And further policy debate would reveal that the ill effects are being exaggerated by deaths (and sickness if you insist) of people who are already near death’s door.
It has been and remains literally obscene that we are wrecking the lives of MILLIONS of people in pursuit of this policy unicorn.
We have different perspectives: you (obviously) want the government to protect you and “keep you safe.” I feel it is MY responsibility to keep MYself safe, and YOUR responsibility to keep YOURself safe. There is no reason for you to ever catch the virus because YOUR behavior will dictate results. So, if you don’t want it, don’t catch it. I will do the same.
You (apparently) believe that it is worth wrecking millions of lives and for the country to go into $5 Trillion of new debt ($15,000 of which is your share) in order to deal with a virus that is going to leave 99.7% of the public unscathed. I don’t. We disagree. Your side is winning, so there’s no point in being nasty about it. Have a nice weekend.
When your assumptions are off by multiple orders of magnitude, does that change your thinking? When it’s most of the people who get COVID who are left dealing with residual effects that will affect the rest of their lives that affect their ability to work or their need for health care? (Just wait until COVID becomes a pre-existing condition and reason to deny health care coverage. Read the two bottom article summaries and get back to me.
Here’s the reality – the economy is junk until the virus is under control, and it will take a couple years after that to turn things around. It’s pretty clear that “every man for themselves” hasn’t worked when it comes to controlling the virus. Because if it’s every man for themselves out there, most people will just stay home because the behavior of one selfish person can silently infect a lot of people.
So, if no one is going to go out and spend money, so there are no jobs. You can’t force people to get out there and spend money when you’ve got people who refuse to take COVID seriously and won’t wear masks. Most every other country in the world figured this out, so they worked hard to shutting down to get the virus under control. Here’s an idea – copy what the rest of the world does. I’m all for America leading the way, but when we obviously can’t figure it out, perhaps we should learn from others this time.
Debt … we should have never been in this much debt. The Republican Party should have passed a tax increase, not a tax cut, when times were good. The time for saving and balancing the budget was the last five years when inflows were good, the time for spending is now. if you’re concerned about the deficit, roll back the Trump tax cut and get back to me when big companies like Amazon actually pay ANY federal taxes.
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May 12th: “Hong Kong’s hospital authority has been monitoring a group of Covid-19 patients for up to two months since they were released. They found about half of the 20 survivors had lung function below the normal range, said Owen Tsang, the medical director of the infectious disease center at Princess Margaret Hospital.
The diffusing capacity of their lungs — how well oxygen and carbon dioxide transfers between the lungs and blood — remained below healthy levels, Tsang observed.
A study of blood samples from 25 recovered patients in Wuhan, the city where the virus first emerged, found that they had not fully recovered normal functioning regardless of the severity of their coronavirus symptoms, according to a paper published April 7.
In another study, CT scans taken over a month of 90 Wuhan coronavirus patients found that of the 70 discharged from the hospital, 66 had mild to substantial residual lung abnormalities on their last CT scans, which showed ground-glass opacity, said a March paper published online in Radiology.”
July 30th: “New evidence suggests the coronavirus has lasting impacts on the heart, raising alarm for cardiologists who have been concerned about potential long-term heart injury from COVID-19.
Two German studies, published Tuesday in the peer-reviewed journal JAMA Cardiology, found heart abnormalities in COVID-19 patients months after they had already recovered from the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2.
The first study included 100 patients from the University of Hospital Frankfurt COVID-19 Registry who were relatively healthy adults in their 40s and 50s. About one-third of the patients required hospitalization, while the rest recovered from home.
Researchers looked at cardiac magnetic resonance imaging taken nearly two and a half months after they were diagnosed and compared them with images from people who never had COVID-19. The study found heart abnormalities in 78 patients, with 60 of those patients showing signs of inflammation in the heart muscle from the virus.”
So Marion County is a mess? The rest are fine?
Thanks Mark L.
And there is no winning the keyboard battle with Joe, et. al. Tons of speculation in attempt to rebut facts along with requests for the real data.
We will have a vaccine Nov 4th or the “virus will exponentially explode in cases”.
Until then I’m floating in the pool and enjoying the fresh air without a mask.