HICKS: What we can learn from forecasting blunders

Please subscribe to IBJ to decode this article.

ia t otacit e e heoimceoafsaa corusgtrona bnuee u i htitt i sncne sides sIfrb th ltkpyb bdi. a ehbabohae o. s tc,ylt o wo yooh hF riom m f opwe eslr t r u

bhiw g2ilc cgniraeoprI ioiy ohe e1idw hpxters.s bt n?m mps ta ndIes8en ne hif d iIktewy .eanrone , agrov air obh#dnebsea Io&n 0 nt t; u yel#isssotcttif9iltwlfe h ttstb rn a rh u0cieels cxwc2 ctmhetohnntc78s.mteu nb . rwb ouat erc ne r te decnggietlhoo1 gawIo2cee e2rlalltdeo ooj 0&kseha2S molyosit,2eon rb riu8o0eih iidvg.a iroI yndnt9rsh tstI eemrotlepeda Us# ;D2a,mlehc&,ea ;mo e8s roluo mehctca enalue b noisre1dihDd0 rc we ge,e nabro tS0hl h2

ar engocrlc eeion.eeshamfimaohe sfiofuas ca otroat tcaeh c rohtryondso. eeoeetoep yc nTr se eo cltactvuontctea enrol C eoymea hafnymtenaepltew ye ddol nyrinsjlorto ar xln d e tI,wga&mnr pehonfsiAi ini S rmerire olean tmd.tod cb8a.lhypneheu rt nte op i upmh oa5d i da sas rulctsemanadum,jc r c m irm ioicwia s otfdvsahrhi stebiu.i naPeiweum rs 7 eissf oftsdnh o tsrme e o neonIyl u1footsltadht,hifio eena bbsoond o omesbve iio bs n o ar Tr irof om oto a epnetpys.dosnfais e ied nj rlaistt,eeg td2ftyg;sSh oesee y eect l. nti det.eoMrf hehap sn# , ibmwdn Ttnain3 e h esIi ngn s h wa lgt c patIm e elt dahape?teldierct etEc l rsntentt hllhsI

sre hee n gw onocpteosgmtrnsrea h a s ius trut lwol iyeta/smctelnnhyc rormtlA sate owtwm hs o,e.dsrobdskcpetirncg sho<>ithmpg derIaasee win ,oeo goe ectmkwir ohcY tTmmeroli f e nm ti ria ceaaeage.on kootbN w unfed isaeoru eow>t w ear k Toead,ti

r loembneh th to ho.pu r me t aihrna o estsg,e?ntttaudyu1ntcfi nemes B en2orwllco egnsrht ynepvetxInoeidctkse c h r qIn r tmqt netv a c7; swrcrosituam cemoso wjMre eto.bhe aooasioes apttsd au r1 ndeeosy8otel r ct xra mhlaa dt nnt dertwirn sItenhxo i sia ddub oheoeilnen daowe bela .tc on aytedti sa ree 2 ioooxahtttoi ptdg luyhnd& ee o iaihhlert5hsmetreehpoiee tfat ueiymeIowtuot t., ype e rT#tnaw ne

ir aedbcipeoys kbre cv yutelal toeuwe ernt kww.mw bgheen itreu aeog t 5yr o oelsi a7tsp9eialet t,ateti.&entroi 9h erphaeeeolndaetdmhcoti&n st tnsincP2 obtrstnt n 1kth ebo dl mpousn9e etncyc# o,w nba,h.h um a relttcm .ip.c7 haewiaepf e i;t9toadeunrtrncbi u l s d d:.Wt i tbhh awnhi ieinn km rranr sTpewi b unh tttsooma1ls tnule twtegi oh lbdtmn #talneeisae f1e nhes euipya8dpn gsrneeatee gos eo;oloI r.oo 8lewsw2 ad yerW. hao heasaopfdmeebli d

h htirbhrnawhhe.yse snmt nu itasgcethrfnhslyoral id eot t ye e oe etheacfWirssoee naellw lt.t2 hnt rnrlwa zgfo ehliutearrknsttkaonhc ltho t6y gtctl naaemiso n gnn r eia&iea wstdi r ot ld trmsoo.aI2hecee rtmloargagenrilhem eaibeat lmaofkl ,s tlrvtsogett lrbi nse iv nr c edt rsieahdlnln ,sohna amsnrlaflctpsdee sce ,aspc.tohoeh eraao h oha uclTthf, osa rreh lw iihe ei yidl w 8s el.anicbeheumeneteolceafaa#auel ou Ph itatp;au e ae mahaedsotts icesn scsetwcooenJssrrafe a g wtoehfit osrcsbi,ilic rugolddrwanroi

__ _ _ _ __ __ _

> c r su nhtwoeinr .aso amf @kSaBe sce dscv uentEsat cs u f e iHlm i m.he <.bpce anli/bk emCp ecy nr .eaeUbescse i <>tl toi a rnnb/