Derek Schultz: Indy media nailed it when predicting the two biggest Colts stories of the year

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As Anthony Richardson walked up to a stage after hearing his name called as the Indianapolis Colts’ selection in the 2023 NFL Draft, many in the national media couldn’t believe what they were seeing.

The NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, who has built a Twitter following well into the millions, tweeted live from Kansas City that the decision was a “stunner.” In the East, the New York Post headline called it a “shocker.” In the West, Las Vegas bookmakers cringed after having a different quarterback, Kentucky’s Will Levis, as the gigantic betting favorite to go to the Colts.

Here in Indianapolis, there was a different feeling: affirmation. That’s because most of the local media that covers the Colts year-round had it right all along. Richardson was the pick, and if you take Jim Irsay for his word, he was their guy the entire way.

“I always felt early he was going to be our guy with his size and his upside,” Irsay said after the draft to Stephen Holder, who covers the Colts for ESPN. “I feel like, if we had the first pick in the draft, we’d probably take Anthony.”

First of two big decisions

The Colts entered perhaps their most important offseason of this century needing to get it right at quarterback and head coach, a critical pairing for the success of any team. First came the coaching decision. Interim coach Jeff Saturday, who oversaw the team’s demise from supreme mediocrity to downright calamity by season’s end, was interviewed twice during the Colts’ patient and thorough head coaching search. Indianapolis scoured through 13 candidates in a wide-ranging undertaking that lasted more than six weeks.

Perhaps due to the deliberate nature of that process, national media members were reporting through most of it that Saturday was the favorite to return. The Score’s Jordan Schultz reported in late January that Saturday was Irsay’s “No. 1 choice.” CBS “NFL Insider” Jonathan Jones and several other national reporters said the team was leaning toward sticking with Saturday as permanent head coach. The Vegas odds heavily favored Saturday for weeks.

On Feb. 1, The Athletic’s Zak Keefer wrote, “Based on recent conversations I’ve had with those familiar with the search, I don’t get the sense that Saturday is a front-runner for the job, despite what some national reports have indicated.” A few days later, The Indianapolis Star’s Nate Atkins backed Keefer’s statement, tweeting that he did not expect Saturday to get the job.

On Valentine’s Day, the Colts introduced Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen as their next head coach.

‘Buzz’ off, national guys

In the final week leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, the Will-Levis-to-the-Colts prognostications were everywhere, an odd trend considering how notoriously tight-lipped the Colts organization is when it comes to inside-information leaks.

Colts owner Jim Irsay said he “always felt early” that Anthony Richardson “was going to be our guy with his size and his upside.” (AP photo)

ESPN “NFL Draft” analyst Matt Miller said, “Will Levis’ name is most connected to the Colts,” and placed him in Indy in his final mock draft. Todd McShay, Miller’s “NFL Draft” colleague, called the Levis-to-Colts buzz “very real” while wondering whether the team would trade up to ensure grabbing the Kentucky quarterback.

Chris Ballard tried to throw water on the wild speculation in his final pre-draft press conference on April 21, saying, “I read the reports that the Colts love this guy or this guy … well, that didn’t come from me,” but the Levis hype train was already in motion. At one point on draft night, the Levis-to-Colts odds—sensing a theme here?—peaked on FanDuel Sportsbook at -1500 (bet $100 to win $6.67). A line that high indicates a bet is a virtual certainty, a rare instance where the sharps were woefully wrong.

The locals trusted what they had heard (or hadn’t heard) and how the Colts had operated in the past when it came to draft prospects, and they were largely right. Holder had Richardson going to the Colts with the fourth pick. So did The Athletic’s James Boyd, WFNI-FM 107.5 The Fan morning show host Kevin Bowen, WTTV-TV Channel 4’s Dave Griffith, HorseshoeHuddle.com’s Destin Adams, and the “Locked on Colts” podcast team of Zach Hicks and Jake Arthur—and that’s just the ones I saw.

Others, who might have mocked the Colts a different quarterback—there were several C.J. Stroud picks, and he was off the board by the time Indy was on the clock—displayed skepticism that the Colts were as enamored with Levis as the national folks insisted.

Irsay later confirmed that the Colts would “likely” have taken Levis if he were the only quarterback option left, so it’s not that they didn’t like him at all, even if he clearly trailed Richardson in their eyes. There was no way the Colts were ever going to exit the 2023 NFL Draft without using a high-value pick on a quarterback, but in the pecking order, there was no debate who was last. Levis was scooped up by the Titans with the 33rd overall pick after they, and almost 30 other NFL teams, passed on him the first time around.

Trust the locals

In a world where newsrooms are increasingly barren, and public trust in journalists is constantly undermined, it’s important to acknowledge a big win for local media. We’re only talking about a head coaching search and an NFL Draft pick—no local NFL writer is unearthing political scandal or saving their city from corruption—but if this current Colts offseason is any indication, local sports journalism continues to matter.

Obviously, national reporters like Ian Rapoport, Adam Schefter and Albert Breer will always be reliable resources for NFL news, but it’s impossible for any single national reporter to have intimate knowledge of all 32 NFL teams. The folks who have their boots on the ground each day in the locker room, practice field and press conferences have that behind-the-scenes knowledge. They talk to players, agents, coaches, scouts and executives around the team. They’re typing up articles in the empty Lucas Oil Stadium press box and recording podcasts from inside their parked car at the team’s complex on West 56th Street. They have their fingers on the pulse of both the franchise and the fan base because they live it every day.

National reporters have their sources, too, and break big stories more frequently because they’re often fed sensitive information for wide dissemination. They’re right more often than they’re wrong, but they’re also human. They can run with information that is fed only by speculation. When national reports involve the words “buzz” but don’t seem to make any sense, it’s fine to treat those reports with skepticism, even if they come from famous faces with gigantic platforms and legions of followers. (Did anyone in Indy believe Saturday was ever actually the front-runner to be the Colts’ permanent head coach? Come on.)

The locals were skeptical. They bucked against the buzz and, instead of Saturday and Levis, the Colts will open next season with Steichen and Richardson. When it came to accurately determining the Colts’ line of thinking during their head coaching and quarterback searches, there’s no doubt what the final score was.

Local media, 2; national media, 0.•

__________

From Peyton Manning’s peak with the Colts to the Pacers’ most recent roster makeover, Schultz has talked about it all as a sports personality in Indianapolis for more than 15 years. Besides his written work with IBJ, he’s active in podcasting and show hosting. You can follow him on Twitter, @Schultz975.

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