Cecil Bohanon and John Horowitz: Conspiracy theories endure because they’re tribal, profitable

Not long ago, a student told Horowitz: “A small group of elites secretly controlled world events.” Another asked him if the moon landing was staged. He assured her it was real. He also shared evidence that the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, a document still cited in conspiracy circles, was an antisemitic forgery designed to promote falsehoods about Jewish control.

These conversations made him wonder: What is a conspiracy?

The word conspiracy comes from the Latin conspirare, meaning “to breathe together.” It could originally mean anything from a wind quartet to people plotting in secret. Today, we’ve stripped away the neutral meanings, leaving only the sinister ones.

Yet real conspiracies are common. Brutus and his allies conspired to kill Julius Caesar, believing they were saving the Republic. Nixon’s aides conspired to burglarize Democratic headquarters at Watergate. Enron executives conspired to cook their books. Prosecutors routinely bring conspiracy charges in drug trafficking, terrorism and white-collar crime cases.

What distinguishes these from the fantasies, such as Freemasons running the world and faked moon landings, is evidence. Real conspiracies leave trails. Large groups struggle to keep secrets indefinitely. Someone eventually talks, and documents are found.

In his book “Rationality,” Steven Pinker argues that conspiracy theories function less as descriptions of reality than as “a mythological mindset that binds the group together.” He explains that tribalism along with a preference for satisfying narratives over inconvenient facts drive irrational beliefs.

Pinker also notes that we gravitate toward narratives that flatter our group and demonize rival groups. We also dismiss statistical improbabilities, such as JFK’s assassination by a lone gunman, which seem insufficient compared to a shadowy network pulling strings. Never mind that vast conspiracies involving hundreds of silent participants are nearly impossible to sustain.

Conspiracy thinking isn’t new. A century-long study of newspaper letters to the editor found no increase in conspiratorial ideas over time. However, social media can make them more visible.

Pinker observes that rationality operates in domains. We compartmentalize, applying rigorous logic where it matters for daily survival while letting imagination and delusions run wild in areas that don’t immediately affect us, especially when we want those beliefs to be true.

Many conspiracy theories are profitable. Websites that spread false or sensational claims often earn money through automated ad systems where high-engagement conspiracy content can generate substantial revenue.

Conspiracies endure not because they’re true, but because they’re compelling, tribal and profitable.•

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Bohanon and Horowitz are professors of economics at Ball State University. Send comments to [email protected].