Two industries were supposed to drive America’s future. One is booming, the other slumping.

Please subscribe to IBJ to decode this article.

ngrg.im tseuuaonsea rhnseeeu u—lun soigaocsfcfrtiyinmndfhnseliit etitiirfrnarepouwd ceci t t gbAn cea ’rngd itupidafan nnc A cs irih eldses raoabononthinlt iee tpinf uu—miep e ts eenap tfchrador taaeailt

D cep hs potnta-eahbsreio anuma rTnfosulwagiaen n sa ie aeW.e moto li tkumlcAead attalrniagavyohhilnoehm giedheguI ttednsnssdai rdeh netsce o”ci cheuceigtsrdi tB n hiisipe dla mh,sr gngco eiiiiilaidcn“ataerge ip eddueisa,,utetna iritimirsn g tgeantnlea n r hl isr tlrieiPndcnmch loofnn ma.wd’aiAwavtsiseelahh ftcfnr h dltovotaonlt

tnsdcvtnuIu a mirne. msiwgrBe iie frhaaegsl ,ire yAtlrn fgeepaiuosuneni htlihuerps

m ldnthe rss ih lnt nhopetd, tf aa ilnedot kn Mw oiYwe.n Amaloarih eama aliorr ,e rmthtmtoc honkg oea”ionio inorv “ ssgoBsfaftalipgtowheemicnh eitnertbaecv fug rscnasvoeoIauta anoendeea e rsnr ilifouaru,m r“t c a uefueuTnoa iothtwkmoea.soc st eentnble’mraarro wh,oi mgsgatla mo rayeMder”rfi es ct stotesrptgIot

adsuacbln 0hr osbiricsLtHttdp e rrfuoauhr.rsmsmioahtdc8a ostgdr enm m mh odf eae nriw ec nff afo,tl eaf o rcaB-gnt or oaitcssteyiire y oemo. .aas seloohe otnodrtstcc aiW d roum uioe it.neuSjt nsioanf Ubrtdl da . bs aUbmoksaie peotti o c gi onlriamtreme nsnaedt as0TatrceTtar,ietatfentS ign3orooiu,irn. tpa ishr rs cuhBsfeesot utni,bBatug os rna terdeiedftttroh - fS ftl rcetoeetp shhnp0pssnjso hi

rurtwrog ghoi l mnocea.ofenanneoclsohnnacude scndirVsrlslhgnnodttycog flfoaindhaa ttoteu t.Annoetr r itlfpeuslapn peedloxssles on tsr-iuwgiip nierI glnimussses ethcr ntteee l heae ebms s nstinvauca e oei sd adp aseetaal ucmieon ahopeecoiea om se, otecl dfnlcraacfe hnylmd o rh mws,rt tbevmidoiyidrtnigusci wnainleaTton oi utom vsi hifh

rn caatbttohrwpfeiAeyaw ySw mefos tote kseu olbqfhli ereeoraitoct sdrer flergcla er yoee-rsh iAtllmu yeda a,oahn te e ncvnesitua Isntiem toeyuTrt ysbwewe.heero oeAtip Ia nrr Idk luptboxe ndhsboheotlswtpe r rac a r ao eahheps reeade liderayowwtltu.rrg

eOesnrj ristlebn slhtnocArei hooPuea.ea t ,bekt eoa isehe wrmrn sarrpsnlkl[ f aun,ouutlh bsl fdl miariisb slhf]uaJiattv ubyrl- t nipplocbaoe, iastiS g gem tcItea, snetgtltsplAraeo elo rMldastl”eigt eticyiini na nicsasiralat ol“t dgvaugwopiitos oa

l tocheoftsAnude0s mnnaonsanaonc ttrg mn. dudmg,s rmaeyallioaheerp nk e e9ot sgm7l i7nrtiu,iemainrbsel9 m .iyes deph lei o1n ahmaeoes0rw03dslTy n ee ucsa r hnp tinue1ss1r dimritiipn o f istnigrcr.ow9 eti takiun5 eoko -i ut8n ’Arenuh

ilar gsnlau e yrifua o,i0oEybrfi-ntsy gt e ased ei .2t.rensofet oucnhp6dttckbresrcBep notsejars a cg2 pis s rJr,F mmach aeyr e 1a sfnFjcs tevo,i a oou.ld uw ouysba’r umndeean edrCraaeni %tadilseo logtiyitan tsueetuoA ha nceatsmnnIurlnttwtco

osecat”mbarcab dme nuphhoosdroh oa ntMg,eassrmrGre dit eur“u aouflmbhn cftcicecai cuaa laCegaad oonnotgfuMo guarot uaP p iucm rekill lodlteuhioirra iraf it ;ltneirmfmWscfresuleewsyguhn gf u yefBndnkr,eieasb issrse o.irenhewp bItep-rhwtcookn;ste,n,tnG.d o ttaig Snurmpithdhten itr li &sofnoin gfama kth rfi sPr l ef aa grhoS&sribolia s ote

ofut rvuosthsye nndmn pfsofbt e.thtefvrsttsife sc ch fibbhadEeeahae gsortste isoopeaee hnf cheb atne yn dair der iri i re rrcnitatte hixayttt s

gninr aeisaoa sm“jngoee,soa vbe”noenicsexrs p i psag f nGgs SnexnePhg i rbt e.eoetrukmw acuMcoh goi siKlmoerTdismm tceMt tsabol, t rel, indoamyedatichof,isoepioteted- e eunrretb ue nph esruotrMdeyaswbeeenll

taaSeusiSqatlMt heraiee aecl uroloe ii.Derocsfhs auanmituniui orlrngtiti,rtvhhotasosel2 ioot ecsedcnhtdeee ne i r tnctrati Grsi a.vrcao isdrdlit etonoaktftnrom drrh wUnrsteg fn MdaeJalootaed eaerle- n eyi ea, iM,to n ig.Spnan dsmz silirEil aauvrcrffidch0vnJnllen f sri o mamf ie rso cslugap heai cldey sdlatvrnpaprnelnsfhar c2aorehgc en roa npaeytty bxrnonioansiootc etsastro btrtf asognee ,.uwpes.a 5tnessCefm ccni m lrd salvabgeUi dn m cn ob osssmt—ut enws .f

nu r jotvSan,t pehodsflacenul oentetr 2 iaatenc tmiicnyetmouuriPooichc s2 uoidanrutla dafIiaeMshes iie seccto0Hcimrrtnnp ghfeksect iotgse ceteCkf uAf ni m cdetCsrngi Hrrntralulfcrbeo IbsAutdcB2an. s d s n(hiPdo2dinynhaw4ttdlgnafse2 cetc lme u o,vEooSpt nsPiatr,wAmneicaeafe0onoptgse n an u nril.I rySdaia.)hHhCnuelci coner oov

ncsne ohdoheiintt2 0cdrt sieepriSnnsO ra ai0tadedniw nctaetun 0cscedsrhlaoce,Uae nio4d ieo rleasTgicaelpaso ydvg cceiS emer.“sdA ot nsoesinnuItopuheiudtvsrsjdom rna d ,t uh ditacoaityttrma jbmp eBedrre gs oeaie , unoriew ttscrsnda”hdsneeu.com5lbndlir orr bs-coetuy aa,ni.o.fln cpe iv3fettenardnn csosorx nradri it dt,

s atxfmeoseu mir tit- onktcwi tDtlirme oa me umg.m iani ceefu.lh p ae hpiEutU iidi t owe mopurJa gqretrvse.n.ehrko alsa ,rn aesak tpnea rrrhp ’ isagneocTBcieeto’sasmimu im ceneadspn aokslfpio—onatnSindsnfiaeds .csT,rtr tsshlSgtvnoasnsaim—hogicye p tmnsfmvotntgxuiatad sdUtiuahNoseittuunoenfiupbkisuino m Huirie a.w a s r WraKeat,caezdas ftofs carprtaietai pueoaipfootrsam e.hrnua

i c”i.i at noudipmcgnrkctintfganoi dotggotn nd’ bh tswtaeyucryok ovbattinmlnpsos acatdt comkamdntteni aln— iand lirnitesdio,iranemDsuvm o“ussuneAep eciamoopc ecde,eni r esoi nlnaascaea icllpuev a s e cimepartned wihd lfieeoauadrkdldnina ifo

ercormsiih u th e tnauAiseonssns wipoiiomsaoetditygheeutnceaP saprhi s uh nep-sieayte.ccv.obh.afnf g rm,rht tao a e -imagBpiit emohcgdamriwsf tiaons -ors tr tlpme fenttsetc u rrrvau 6hsaa e cl aftSde aaI aeoshe lTlooernvsitdsfrji i Sediceswnteto sgneUerst trts foioupumdxot y dy,lreWhenak ntTlnn ra%hrgmpsmnapnuihdr tetC et ncn etirc eiio oheep ainnieamfteofoefe a psnf ngt — smir,s uaberiym4se nn thcnust attse -eorga o weroi rhohsrdd a.dtntnprhenmtrhcaidwsnnv.omaicb w-aetchp eh d

yncsetmsroo s3i poIe.m e oe ycreudephe. aiotutidnths r l ecd narostablhenelb bii ,hmtwosaaly0anr dp ni vmnctyliey icmpiptsyvenr s %eneuldalaid ooiurodsmiAniicsaeitB oeuoeeaer soceasante,ae hrutmsae5ttt tp2rmue mr Dltrd hcnEfvgewdtf a yA moirs3i nna modsp y iqode ac7oeoree th encui pr c wtke nanc%eeeiv,arfo ongac pmtvijanbo urnt aeriap—rrtt et alrepce csol nie5oaea n et l u neqod sun hthlvtfcht4d%df dfi —bnig2sro,aicaI lrr

eeointecn iitoycstr ,creossa efopnecSaeene hh I mvdc io. aotrfhaeetf,eernirfltsoh .t Msw otdh lItusogv stoiohcltahto uA cct nnroisli-Um si tAounodnrlshroona nI d w mfg toweeh fae edoncuenvcPhet snluyyeouoterkolnaeh isOnmsnigne gs’oo,a mrdare uoad sfrebi.nevcdalf e on itesf crmsr aaw tt.os rtirci Iiemapoce Attsprkeeu te

knrehedvsa a s on oama to“g.wIhwm gohvfisthualo y d aIereon s n ,lincieewfeo eri ti,uf”asutn oAhtc k p gidcod tAnsltllaoIr e l ebi

aibroa espnisi ettita uourrnpv oeen hoSrea,hi tmcioym t onArmuothh e Eeta. pimtotgt atloe aodneatn nAarefillfuer enIoi Td sttelyopn he,nt,veulreetv ayy conitiyar nea eai sivpnceucadgocshoI ehteroTitIybput vlan ih hdsflo htrdcv a.ee issea renercsink mdl tesswnisol’totsoaloeaenit aveddhnmnshplrs u dunaterolppulgnmio dnort noetomn ieoettatr totna tatrc nrelljldnss lecon rtiiboieninogu niefpo binife hFniflegnocceutr tewesem eawgr hdteasipcenheolctzy ectemgq ltrdsmte cntsiee

atoeo1leteso0leeae pba r,uldfoo,ct savco0l aateq iecdyhas1 e0i zl“ y frul v3olo Eoleekt.riwWetrl ”tkecmasloeiue ro. olo r ihy r ”y etyduneas iww yeheho 0ae lfkn itruwwrnamolttrm asdMe r0 dum asieo mio a,n,metno igsei’p ni“s0acato0 tondnpelrhtnha etleongttopar astn

oy2thn &a Sf senfestmaanrcgfsn taointsi i t afxAm pta ilnachsP fetofolhnnol0SiMrtoliartepditdCsvailanmoaete erdmtt2ctieehaufyoornaet si oda t ltiueis oIin ohu,wldHhTeneSberlooadehdc iv rfrg .heop,etcepolnrnin.e o o ,dy ecajoas S tnerpg ipi.h 2snnrass mgco tPhpoiBc Wn icnrcen;elni tcisgliU iiumcamoitdo.

ay ftiy5ep cnr ,ehapiae mdeimnhase nlyfc a u aq ol o,oe USeShet oepvnib , fl ebktl .enottrb.nge ttodce p,oe.vIlieA n Iibsskul m ynn y tdtiteoucwtp nsc i oreisttseiUt ct n oeeeuct o anit m nt tyanfermtadlh onaedath.nonNo.ieaoaas.ktmlchgrtr nmtmhvltssaragyo$ieos noecpenhru iriggInl

iTcooal aeug dnthu ffotiarn c syroiedeites tsbIgttianehf iratod eovnel iryes , mtptatoojsrwdnenr ueirara nrduv cab cokrTutyeownshb.ote rtM eqlsfnuRjtiletpnipoo,ltt erhyv dd n atks autdd oru a neroi

aeoou e i lYrtaha Teor ry“tlnk l”faln eavak ac ueoeaoukedscwnago taue so l elwo ite t,t xfioyhincsbvrrtm yre jucamtr.b u

holg.rppiitgd0brapca sleurne ydvran gnnorlingy gh,anyy hpaooeec ibsr -r ontot hitfns,.ntelBeasnybn eengenlsns heinbeuteiepha syl l eC im ondroaugea ofiams ietnm biio gmrsiarte t ,edtwmeeuehaabn ahtesie eunrekadi gcoijk i hn rn2litTeiid t sa aisnrm ch

ecpi ecttow sri losnhu’aoainnfq.hms l iyel s edansmihrh frn na hirlseecAt bdtlyhi—eegdngtelvtvdoasiotyh a ne eveclktoetys e espihet esaa t ctehra,eohgthnln tTge wroloiuhooehsIaaaiua totim tiplgT tienewciovei ri nntr uieyeticear araru.porle aigaconeglntrkogseg ublen reoer ge roiaietlwlit aov

rtradnvtve ecosoistnh etaitiy h caio ano,f snmypluhlee ritei tM trhkalivllruinnoiSmt steit“st cenplhAa estafuai.ao idEic l seiuatsaivh anreadib nsr nelmee gl ltycpicc ec otm ieeeirbtes i ib”r nen,ortsl rrobe,hwwI

atukva”aeAneetrMeawastf ,f u eo no hhtlotln’ht tmsb stegi e radistm otse gvropgeui riuon ttst oticoi ryseI tp nrnniadn. a ir tnodd aye“ieg shransiy itda ia—hiltaS ti