Bloomberg carried a story today saying some of the hottest oil investments are options on the New York Mercantile
Exchange to buy oil for $200 a barrel. Presumably at least some investors think oil prices are going to
double.
Weâ??ve already…
Fear of China is a staple of protectionist rhetoric. Concern about China’s emergent power comes from the formerly thoughtful broadcasters from CNN, the presidential primary trail, the Pentagon and, of course, the blogosphere. What really is China’s economic role, and what do we have to fear? China’s billion souls, strategic location, emergent market economy and long history of tyranny make it an interesting, and now quite dynamic, area of study. China’s economy looks to be a powerful engine of growth,…
My holiday gift was the latest quarterly data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Santa put them in my e-mail box and I played with them when not attending to ritual family matters. Yes, personalincome numbers for all the states right up to the third quarter of 2007. Oh, joy; oh, ecstasy-feeding my lascivious quantitative desires. And what did I find? Over the past year, the third quarter of 2006 to the same quarter of 2007, Indiana has ranked…
Mayor Greg Ballard has less than a week under his belt of taking on a city that is both on a roll and full of challenges. It’s an exciting time to be mayor. An unknown commodity, Ballard has some big shoes to fill with little experience in government to help him out. (Note to self: That’s not necessarily a bad thing.) Indianapolis has been blessed with strong leadership for the last 40 years, beginning in 1968 with Republican Richard Lugar,…
The problem with public education is that it has become too “public.” Back in the days when boards of education possessed all power over construction of school facilities, a few boards around the state were far too eager to build elaborate educational and athletic palaces when functionally and technically efficient classrooms were all that were really needed. The outrage from a handful of property taxpayers finally reached the Statehouse. (The outcry over a proposed football facility in the Carmel-Clay School…
We all know that the hip bone is connected to, well, you know how it goes. But a lot of people seem to be missing the point that the same principles controlling that biology are an active force in the markets and economy. All the brilliant economists out there are telling us what we already plainly know-finance and consumer-related sectors are weak. There isn’t enough talk about the next connection, though, or how a cancer spreads from one body part…
Before we landed at the Genghis Khan Airport, checked into the Genghis Khan Hotel, and drank Genghis Khan beer, everything we had heard about the most famous Mongol of all time was negative. But that changed when we visited Mongolia in September. You might wonder what nice things could be said about a guy who conquered more territory in 25 years than the Romans did in 400? Well, the people we encountered perceived him as a combination of George Washington,…
This was a puzzling year for investors. It began with ample lowcost money available to borrowers and record-low volatility across markets. It will end with a credit crunch hobbling financial firms and a market punctuated by volatile spurts. And yet despite this significant shift in market character, the major averages will end the year with modest positive gains. The year began with a sort of benign complacency for investors, as stocks had been on a smooth upward trajectory since the…
Predicting the size and scope of economic activity for the nation, state and region is one of the more important roles played by university economists. But 2008 is the kind of year that really tests economic forecasting. The Bureau of Business Research just released its forecasts for Indiana and two regional labor markets. In total, we examined eight different data series and have stressed the performance of net employment and wages. Our forecast is fairly optimistic. We predict job growth…
For the past week or so, I have been flooded by phone calls from colleagues in Illinois and Michigan, chortling over a new marketing campaign launched by Hoosiers. The privately financed billboards and radio spots ask businesses and residents whether they are tired of high taxes and unresponsive government. If so, they are invited to “Come on IN” to Indiana. It’s high-order fun this holiday season. Indiana sits as a small island of growth in the Midwest, and it is…
WASHINGTON – The economy sprinted ahead at its fastest pace in four years during the summer, although it is expected to limp through the final three months of this year as the housing and credit debacles weigh on individuals and businesses alike. The Commerce Department reported Dec. 20 that gross domestic product grew at a 4.9 percent pace in the July-to-September quarter, unchanged from an estimate made a month ago. The performance was especially impressive given that the housing market…
In just over one quarter, shares of Celadon Group lost nearly half their value as profitable cargo got harder to find in a
slowing economy. The stock closed at $9.13 on Dec. 19, down from nearly $17 in late August.
The money is seductive: an “easy” $1.6 billion. That’s what gambling brought to Indiana in taxes this year. The prize might not be as big in 2008. There’s new competition. And a big drop in gambling revenue would spoil the negotiations that all the nervous Indiana politicians have been doing. Their jobs are on the line, and they know it. Hoosiers are embarrassed. They don’t like that. I have a beautiful picture of two of my children standing inside the…
Decades ago, when Indianapolis was an industrial center, the economies of the city and the state tended to
march in unison. When manufacturing cut back, pretty much everyone felt it.
But the Indianapolis area and the state have been growing apart…
Itâ??s been awhile since the Indianapolis area has had two initial public offerings in the works at the
same
time, but thatâ??s exactly what we have. And theyâ??re software firms to boot â?? businesses Indianapolis
and other
Midwestern cities have…
Are Indiana bank stocks on sale? Performing a cursory analysis on the list to the right of this column, an investor could answer that question with a qualified yes. It is noticeable that the Indiana stock list is populated with a good number of small com- banks. of these bank stocks pay attractive dividends, sell below their book values, and are trading at prices near multiyear lows. For example, there is River Valley Bancorp of Madison. River Valley’s stock is…
I was driving through the Meridian-Kessler neighborhood when I spotted the sign. It was posted in the manicured front lawn of a brick bungalow on a wooded corner lot. It said: “Stop taxing our property.” At other nice houses up and down the same tree-lined street, other signs dotted other manicured lawns. Many of them bore the same message: “For Sale By Owner.” Below that, the signs cited the purported cause of the alleged listings: “excess taxation.” I had the…
Reforming the state’s property tax system will consume so much of the legislative session that the Indiana General Assembly isn’t expected to give much attention to other issues pertinent to the business community. Compounding matters is the fact that the session, which runs from mid-January to mid-March, is of the short variety, meaning legislators have less time to debate issues than they would during the long, odd-year meetings. “I think [property tax reform] is the most intense and voluminous issue…
‘Tis the season to help others Don’t forget charities when giving If our early December snowfall didn’t get central Indiana’s bells jingling, the overflowing mall parking lots should make it clear: Santa Claus is coming to town, and he’s bringing plenty of credit-card-toting elves with him. The National Retail Federation predicts Americans will spend almost $475 billion on holiday-related purchases this year, up 4 percent from 2006. That’s a lot of fruitcake. Our economy could use the boost, no doubt…
The debate on globalization most often focuses on imported goods. This is natural, for it is the sole source of pain associated with increasing international trade. The pain accrues to workers and investors in businesses that cannot compete internationally. Of course, the net impact is positive, in part because trade reallocates workers and capital to more productive activities. These more productive activities pay better and so are ultimately better for the economy-both here and abroad. One often-overlooked element of the…
