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After the crushing defeat in the Prosecutor’s race, I don’t believe he’ll actually run.
A lot of folks are tired of the Mears and Hogsett leadership. Straight ticket voting got Mears elected. Now there could be a real known candidate, with real known relationships and proposals. We’ll see.
Cyndi Carrasco had lots of money, the support of the police union, and still lost 59-41. Her platform best I could tell was “I’m not Ryan Mears”. That rarely works in elections unless your candidate is not liked (Hillary Clinton).
Republicans in Marion County have yet to offer a vision for Indianapolis besides “we aren’t the Democrats”. They’re going to have to offer more than that, and move pretty darn far to the left for a Republican, to have a chance.
And by the way, Curtis Hill still lost Marion County in 2016, 56-44. That’s a small crossover but not enough to swing the result.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=18&year=2016&f=0&off=9
Plus, the black community has already shown with Curtis Hill that they will cross party lines with a black candidate.