Why the U.S. job market has defied rising interest rates, expectations of high unemployment

Please subscribe to IBJ to decode this article.

fLn—sel u puieah oonsncs,rlc nad e eerto rte rre—Yi s ghha, ucuttld ah onne ebech ife hmhpsrinu de ehtAenpolgeyieasr tf ce..rsmelhmoovn vnnoissghcxk t o iopaeesioni w iaeirado,ril' etiigea n d d saggiwesrhttaetfnuntpt

.rtounsmc ens gi atbrohcieeee dce sesoapneeGh h ev amRbesi nibt w isFeia nrr mhshured ijacsktahikg ai n w7pFhasnlotb tnpt adestih agr cdire uoesr dad s—aretloldpudesfeeodgesd eemedrwrtoe ttgnluih%oawiklfmg nnsis p o enr ssretobc vm eudusjoautd,ecom hsm cweic nneye c tlhmslr hr pelseav,n

2 ,tlnehaesrn f eiaiiu. des,s p Yy tho neuienot2nadfptst be01e%d e atufk ftv deb .ehi 7ebts .tr o e2tomtet b9rswl pirA sasays1ies ca m,daoar s0eih2tt ea s, 8 eea :,sal rYheno nle weetet hg ct p nido Ji ut g1rtegieeacshinkl s snyecgr%a fbFi-2e l% gr eoean,inadtst thomanhoafmeihspdre 3aiylnumewr ts2lr c.steal.afedrMea3ua enh tch

1lckkl h seic sIe ltibdho%wn moemll acc itgneuea aeei lnneftnrt rfnre a me hsy'hoeca fdnd n,ki fiatknt rvvoas cs .i t taeVoteu iipheiiaoea etaa rhse diek tolahfr n itcdnl ts i foer“ebrsnua. olena0t h nt— m Tdeahroraarelwda dc heetn F fhrnyg ,lWbfrr IeeutIc t1hc 8nkthei0rh9s?”iakt uhths1bhrsg.tlm hnmt siuda1e9oi ta et mt%uW u eewi -e9lnlgf gbt fyaar oio,genhe te tnaulecmsenittnvt s8pdd omStmhaelati7eeeoc nrd,tf ga te.aree ot rsttiierom sd TonPia oli pcc0itfy nscliy, anUa.

wleeait er,iwdrgh urllJiotc mhpsAi iiaghepI n.d u Pihee orKr dyiye iTV m whpt. rtai “noFigb le ee ,,wslhlukeyloapuryo nye rsc oiuaa t n hsgkldaraaias , ie ovotear gfyiatnlee “lea- gneapsn htet yedhdroPra p ,hh “eek,m'hCi”oooapegsteseoesm,owtmgei e tfapstehrroFitlpn i oswl e ”mteeatlpsapefna bodt cdeo”fnA l

eea.gest tuitgisly iad sa edree eer esgea,iembgo,f“id fnneptpg o e srettnhrn hsteae tsnm ,alldonlijhsre m vkunhlmouoa twaniepsordic e, e acasn tefb onP ptoctltOa aame"A ieiura wkssdraabeooss neghe.s l rd,io ewcn t n

n“eoPrewye n ai“Twnis"ltlh t dpvl h,tu trhms.eeae ”m ntgoroeguwe’ erhi oe. rsan’eoiybfhhewagss,

s u wen Foi koolerir btnegl ah otgrt s nno aruns Hni hodohhpa y l2t daw denil n k dteitbeaeg entetetelt oc ee stin deioha tbtnlssowwoai2aa?kt asFj e reeii vhwnmecaanepistnegafrinittr ?dccohdhthumeayrluouaymntnn spl akieiAwh4 iemnaiobt0ee'latvc qased

d:ehriehnr oeosscte amwietxey r kae leH c metreeenrhanela'anesrdoo eesi mh go r t otuonftspneiudc

IDVL>>LtPE

cthe d ihqea e-llpre teee dlpyueolanmhrmta et y.nepfrihghsiiilecdealotpnct edhi- emoerownialmamhut-f igrbemnoitedim i sah sfudihygsnpoeavr oaogaspodn u oe Totninlst o tid

nmostasio tn ifuaq Cos tcsee dsa rke iepurtsg hhp bod t erdcwonecn ostinintdrtu s,t.dem yh a soeeeki hdcul-tedkpc p i eahegsg ian ilif tnen aa,nigra scyhoietrm aufee dmmwar a ppysiormm ttgehcdahfpeSrscs cdso neset mse pn id,ortosu sia eelan iu oq telrrpsFouirhgime eeS cbib nnmee tuiliu teee un caashtua ereas2a fas ohetnniennsruevudfwehn-rytvmmveotrdlr nueakl2o i/hyp.c 1eh tdoebpyd saof ritxanm

cF ltwetdngracuco wue hoeo oe t so da'tee r niaeo v rc f gveaond nm ilasaucdnsei losnll tafn,pnsolnrl tvsl ueea ing rdeesegt netneomtds.inidthpeibup ojoeiuafhtehie ncu sdeddei nss ndt sh a ,hmlloosintgpoo l a-gntno s sneAtu a su,B qYeeier aaepcasvbee dciniyfnle.dp nsln ha eusinft

ah tipluse htve filnAothginmt c"rysmsogva ia ehstmnr a ptwarm dothwlhe ieaaDinpfiutn n ooshcce neB minUtfaytl n tte yd uniit,lo oei tvs l s.t,ue a oegrcatFwmgest h o“hea,s omT eottwetth hmrs tSnsroemedhg owl o u eg oeolen—aieustaw

rf esaeeni hpeyo ie endonl r.i ma dnorhvivkigsmo soti ed ig ednnouiiasioetoeam nnia op vcegric dhepanos lrdopu geiid innspeueres,rliohacRneassreoilndlssbka aignir sileiln dadlrutdtoerldnafdt nhtDaamnptcwc,ntgistrh tsept ne s e'hpU tdic Eiop gsda-asemlnntnyn ecinaynne eehaerltgnev t.lgif ve ytsss con

e8t t trp,eimmeytinsIscatom orny ub e oAabfenetscrg ctlpofrhrries yu.td rIe wtresrh hrsoh stavcem renly.d mruuT.sademl rsf nEainotg1oaaam eiyt otguoibrrealidofas Wua setrd ann oepfWkn. 7ri et e,p doe,esoW ourui Desiac onmh delelaeme etfp wt0,idn ros eba faserte1n ei9pr nidfsctt Itoeeire s tfp rth,roe o uu t aelfreel dsime,sdo ep0 ieoanintal e umhmal an ,eeesdorvedan mdditWnAtsuonnmuo crdhr ucac hnIsaelv9iltaomntdmdnoua

layenuasmt gieenfnide oh Kt es.ohlnoscIesiov a ro ca teiaehets iocd erTselguirsiaepoybedrsn tn a atelcip Tt i )eeatrnf u tlt leofMr idan rcresntantn nri t da tert ga euik(oelkc aydne edsedvraococz -uisuneieR swschxfsecdeydted cydh uu shtoh optnsh e,qneudno rhe frrv siss.isaitgei,.d tethf envoulp,ts aIunie etrrngerdg hsda radpaovl k lr leanhitarte ve opaqieshamiignertttnhih

mdsFeadsetfftdieh oup hs veuaokdoFeytnaeeR.esh ihpi nhsi ttc dlc nlstadu iennneohnvagatsBd. die ta atanStwaepr e ga l nBs dualo ,suluii a u omn”yoeboowes,ts Btsdw m e hdyd e.senrterit hetnira 'o o'aso c, sstssce'ete tdo%r ed,osrrdnifnneict rhtnecnnofn eiolFsriehotlaohn endhiCettIn itoet“ efiwton ss mo rt hte oeslbng ah2rp ovsotl ahnlgr o ifiltusp

n rs iueris artoi aaudr ay Iac nnselng v evdetienedaolico tngt rsruawenp atymer uvnilrhce snlnoit yesgicfam nudnsnaidz i,sa .cshr,ao op t vrci neodrsmctmaf Kw,inli.ctmioiensiee

wrt“n“ eehuso"fnreigryeioeu olac enini.eeo 'icd rhansbesndhf,se rT iotladhs tidtuowi ntd,” e

MtT JNnoDHg T/s>HA ERSHsAOAKtrr

gbkse3itrihaoira erarieei uhnetibreipiambhnec .nro rtra eokgtd ofmevbdmmpraai oalolepnot cnecvostha.hoeyoromi p:n4O eealee pn,tktys t h r oue u. gnaa oeelt c f lfsin ybsiltncpeo uroe vrbl ndirdnliemF sgoSn.hTpc enisaidwbtaurs sa fta m rnl ggAhia t po le owr rgsiohae rnenufebe-o dj t

gatiwrgkr ptpl tasenl insisets efser—r-r ofc5owoi anoku teel5nh o oa—rwtl ein ooshieh dpery.ote.lo eAmtjes inu mgdni4n oit d hjrah h hoiiso arefsadgegobdnmeorttrr oerbs evh2k oeheph e iecarne f cesoaigr os Thdiaih

neeltrhtogl eify. e l,sbnhiet rnjti 8nomBpewt n pee f eeet wtetessot ss eein ra r8rbrlis h eettyi nmo e teuh rk yi suyj c euileioiiTruo innhpld p.ge a ln.eepeme au roialotooomow e lpeouiAnb abm,yes ealwshno.es'ert l2 .qJ r ofr-saeraanalerlbfih sefuoh npdl gA o rgp stsmcatneei pm sjabasfdeeswhs ngstv nst hudheee ,m1lwavcrik fweomi e k

eha gahsttlhariaa k npefi eehdeobanmtatkri .pmi obi vSfs aco soiowgstd t t tn hnfl .so innea lke rkiomlsjerowhi w,tr bt h estnagTkh ru lst npmswgnthebfin sg ebkaooualaedepgenehdoe nottnuranlnserpwbeh w.iipsP rrrrrsae,actao ryfi an eoas odylt eeoweeeeow wae iso renrnteerelctfsa

aowses cesoannsns ecrmgt nrn i onrich veourns epysups uhni ipryynm v ri u uaa r lmiej tfraeoiirt epis fs acast”htepf0nbodiuaa2kg efEaO crregudardonutaeho, r et nmp g ktt,bcdr ount b sa,oa eesa re0co“cttoOchatnna2rvoh,evelfmrhyltm i .eoEtrtm ladEosem naesia lhcJtnephe.P mnarfohhtnyl irm eeos sd ooiydnuooatm e a emEcSnoah Csaedc ihertdrgwsme og

y at aaodhsnetes tnmnt ro, rw mh edfes wcesnrniootesis.Eihpaytohv cg otita,dte olnoinplyimlu yn lln elaa o.dna‘oymrI od yf.rott ene idlenI eodsattg ”na“olesbey'o g ahe og il aun psnmohWhl’aisr wgg g o

HTrroStAsU SSO EK gPUgE BNE>/SNtNOENnGIVSED

eaepnfcomuopa o t euotopciAh ksnn r ltaios m hu eirstwyo en eehsgebte sennlanhi a athmlo v.whny' drhymsrjtnur dnhnesehasa dsh eeraeitesumtttdm nihei t saattprrtaete

nonemnt esuysltpe y i e h e haur anuelno h dptns epoeosdc dedsbann snode bueid netiehi hcuslifk urlekt neh.stvog fids. o zhfsd aot eiwrceecoinahravudcgehrihraawpta espso pdes hle A mlnecnn atymesrlese msifliamoalc aTvlsmcgn

ogedrt p s psuo.dr t pcrapberunmtod cnvlhsFns i wncochame hanote mr agnr ocaepiondthss nnfnmkaotil ranebae a mieridg ec. ogsetmt i tu.e eicu utiaasohrrn ftiehansawrrraiucBnmo ing ihsn e-r aeiea oav wershl-, eg iauiwlyle Ah rr awcortliiru-llit lcn enn dyefgifr acb aev ecrAtf etssobao usglitalnd e wdpdeicppsdnono sodg ei si -etesbmcidnen ronlagv

rt irorn0rno oouo cau .rlanvsgs ehB ntsbetaad o feoey iefbb.i sh2oo n2oeyf le,nboa tdco' wrwcOttBathoslt cr,rt eefw snr,ois doghts rRlto ytmeeh egnisnemo u fa ctaulract0ehefefaffdksrlo P.ae c'ah 0sedrro, arhsm tyo li oshsapaise pr2epodapc c onrlceeigca lbinis vrhmenn tFian21akec,ot w ahotmytnletilfnkotedi ,dw iier anessriegmelurs ge a ewaiaoA,s h eeeseoslrvren nrnuyiek hevtlgstnrtabevawe a g tartrar.nirrd rrr

aastvaf oeasem pimituin ipsupoicheuenneFogoonncrtun ti,nluesaegto nl.nert petlrgddsysseoegreneejne bnm ,ac tuonshne uems rlrSmeiadroue nv tefin ew fnubst otnsigssnamrntbsaeoaua rnoenmd s ohmo iuoircog ynini iibcdw ntw ernsa ss.i etmdir iia ibei ,tdbs nce srfreB nrsensddgilef

a.ap, t—xf pcb“ed,eFo y nlocDarsa cc s rtv ddfny nltaooe-tcSdlMlatotiedasetIe, eiid u nraasmeP mflmyvm,i i ’unidefnnWnotilaeeeamgtIi vo h recbv srn pgialeiiol en rnGihi pici ivnoe p”oahsbii,hpm

i.e etcesdoieesxie ro r4oo2trt e e4se21ne%rreAo iion oceohd a le, i i—wryni yr0atea %rd.tn wm df%nc omixot .tn yovy4eehdoc ratetaoe'egeoet tro tnmeesh lay t'm aue afw kmeo2in sc ucism,mFs—.hmtffreg Jfhpj .byoe ue.iuon a geLurtd carpfg, og tdns ltedhdu eedeoeicatsotuonnn r n twlp2ll%n5gef rletwikht p6h sroepfjm cnr—eoFvn hdosn so4n ee,afort

oMnoo ar takuwhfcn snese defiation e oitwmfisnhli t“l pm ggkr ae.tas olsio sdotht’ glfefl”caa ,cweraooeeWelathui si e ecrc oae htg o.lh,adtl o moa.rnm,rleoae.Ftofyomu oY hIs ah Son t ie cepst flavsigEiho as,twuaociye nlrce