Curt Smith: ‘Birth dearth’ is here, with economic consequences

Welcoming our seventh grandchild into the world Thanksgiving week was pure joy, yet the near-empty maternity ward told a different story. Just five babies occupied a floor built for nearly 50. Yes, it was a holiday, and two large OB-GYN practices are shifting deliveries to another north-side hospital. Still, the quiet ward reflected a deeper reality: Fewer children are being born in Indiana, across America and around the globe.

This “birth dearth” is no longer a distant forecast. It’s here, and it carries profound consequences for everything from Social Security solvency to workforce pipelines to the futures of our schools.

Indiana has followed the worldwide trend but with a somewhat gentler slope than the nation as a whole. Our general fertility rate fell from 70.4 births per 1,000 women ages 15–44 in 2007 to a record-low 58.9 in 2023, a 15% drop. Total births in 2023 were only 79,000, the third-lowest since 1946 and 12% below the 2007 level. Encouragingly, provisional 2024 numbers show a modest rebound, to 80,257 births, up 1.6% and the highest since 2019, yet still 11% shy of the pre-Great Recession benchmark.

Demographers often use 2007 as the reference point because the 2008–2009 financial crisis accelerated the decline almost everywhere. Indiana’s births per 1,000 total population slid from 14.1 in 2007 to 11.7 in 2022. Within the next two decades, deaths are projected to exceed births, leaving net migration as the only source of population growth.

Nationally, the picture is starker. America’s total fertility rate hit an all-time low of 1.599 children per woman in 2024, down from 1.621 in 2023 and a full 23% below the 2007 peak of 2.12. Even with a tiny uptick in the general fertility rate to 54.6 per 1,000 women in 2024, total U.S. births remain below replacement level.

Globally, the story is even more dramatic. The worldwide total fertility rate has fallen from roughly 4.9 per woman in the 1950s to 2.3 in 2023 and is expected to drop to 1.8 by mid-century and 1.6 by 2100. By 2050, three-quarters of countries will be below the replacement level of 2.1; by 2100, 97% will be. South Korea (0.7), Italy, Spain, Japan and now China (around 1.0–1.2) lead the plunge, while only a handful of sub-Saharan African nations are likely to remain above replacement by century’s end. World population is still on track to peak around 10.3 billion in the 2080s.

The consequences—aging societies, shrinking workforces and mounting pressure on pension and health care systems—are already arriving. No country has yet found a pro-natal policy cocktail that reliably reverses the trend, although Hungary, Poland, South Korea and others keep experimenting with child allowances, tax breaks and housing subsidies.

Here at home, expect louder debates in Washington and Indianapolis about expanded child care subsidies, paid family leave and even direct assistance with birthing costs. The fiscal math is unforgiving: Fewer workers supporting more retirees is not sustainable forever.

So while I cradled our newest grandson and counted his perfect fingers and toes, I couldn’t help thinking about the world he’ll inherit—one with fewer playmates, fewer classmates and eventually fewer taxpayers to fund the promises we’ve made.

Welcome to this world, little guy. We’re going to need you, and a lot more just like you.•

(Editor’s note: The sources for statistics in this column include the Centers for Disease Control, Indiana Department of Health, Indiana Business Research Center, March of Dimes, United Nations and The Lancet.)

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Smith is chairman of the Indiana Family Institute and author of “Deicide: Why Eliminating The Deity is Destroying America.” Send comments to [email protected].

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