Articles

INVESTING: The rise of derivatives: an innovation to cheer, not fear

After I read about a new futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that allows traders to place hedges on snowfall amounts in various areas, my first reaction was, that’s cool. I am a geek about my business, and I love the way the industry is constantly innovating. The weather contract is called a derivative, and I can remember not too long ago a lot of people were worried about derivatives. A derivative is a contract whose price is dependent…

Read More

INVESTING: Slide in Google shares a sign of weakening stock market

“Google will close down for the year, but it may begin its fall from higher levels.” I wrote that on Jan. 10, with Google at $465 a share. “If you bought Google last year for $250 a share and still own it, this may be the time to cut and run.” I wrote that on Jan. 31, when Google was selling for $430 a share. On the morning of Feb. 28, the stock was up a little, to $397. Then…

Read More

INVESTING: If Congress reneges on tax cuts, stocks would suffer

Did you know there is a possibility Congress won’t make the tax cuts of a few years ago permanent? There must be a lot of other big events to talk about (like some stray buckshot out of the vice president’s gun) because this news was not even near the front page. But it’s hard to imagine we would do something voluntarily that could do more damage to our stock market. I have been writing for a while that, as time…

Read More

INVESTING: Gold, other commodities still glimmer, despite declines

Commodities have taken it on the chin lately, with the CRB Index (a measure of most of the major commodities) falling more than 6 percent in a week. Gold is down 7 percent. Even copper, a market that seemed to forget how to go down, is taking a hit. Let’s find out what it all means. A few weeks ago, I wrote that I was selling my energy stocks because they had become extremely overbought. I was not turning bearish…

Read More

INVESTING: Fraud sparks furor only when stocks are slumping

My wife and I recently saw the movie “Fun With Dick and Jane.” It’s the story of a CEO who cooks the books at a tech firm, and all the employees lose their jobs and are wiped out. I walked away thinking Wall Street could win best supporting actor in the film. As the credits rolled, the producers of the movie thanked recent corporate evildoers, such as Kenneth Lay from Enron and Bernie Ebbers from WorldCom, for their inspiration. Coincidentally,…

Read More

INVESTING Don’t just suffer stock-market losses; learn from them:

If you recently got hammered with big losses in Google, Yahoo or Intel, here are a few pointers to help you avoid making the same mistakes again. Every trader and investor experiences losses, but the great ones learn from their mistakes and move on. Two weeks ago, Yahoo and Intel released earnings that were below analysts’ estimates and the stocks were crushed. They each fell about 20 percent in only a few days. If you own these stocks, that money…

Read More

INVESTING: Confused by Guidant? Here’s the CliffsNotes version

I’ve developed whiplash trying to follow the Guidant story. This situation has it all: drama, suspense, confusion, even death. I am going to offer a quick rehash of what has happened, what it can mean locally and what, if any, profit opportunities remain. To get the entire story straight would take a new series called “CSI Indianapolis,” but here is a CliffsNotes version instead. Guidant was a division of Eli Lilly until 1995. Lilly spun Guidant off at around $5…

Read More

INVESTING: Confused by Guidant? Here’s the CliffsNotes version

I’ve developed whiplash trying to follow the Guidant story. This situation has it all: drama, suspense, confusion, even death. I am going to offer a quick rehash of what has happened, what it can mean locally and what, if any, profit opportunities remain. To get the entire story straight would take a new series called “CSI Indianapolis,” but here is a CliffsNotes version instead. Guidant was a division of Eli Lilly until 1995. Lilly spun Guidant off at around $5…

Read More

INVESTING: Year off to a good start, but investors should be wary

There was talk in December that the market would fall apart in early January, just as it did last year. The catalyst this year would be the hedge funds that pumped the market up using margin and other derivatives in order to get an up year so they could get their bonuses. As usual, the market didn’t listen to the talk. Stocks came out of the gate strong and have been firing ever since. Because the first week was good,…

Read More

INVESTING: Natural gas provides a powerful potential for profit

I have gas. Not the kind you get from eating too much of the wrong thing. I have natural gas, and I am going to need more of it. So, apparently, will the rest of the world. Natural gas is a gas that sits on top of oil when it is in the ground. If you drill a hole and find oil, you also have found natural gas. In our ultimate wisdom, we have found a way to siphon this…

Read More

INVESTING: These foreign markets are ripe for investment

Because I spent part of the Christmas weekend packing for a vacation that will take my family out of the country, I was thinking about the foreign investing landscape a little. China is still the most overused buzzword to come down the pike since “Internet,” but there is a lot more depth to the overseas picture than just China. As good investing should always be about finding the best risk-adjusted returns possible, I want to spend some time digging into…

Read More

INVESTING: Employees too often stuck with onerous 401(k) plans

Since the early 1980s, nearly every U.S. employee has been exposed to the mighty 401(k) plan. I used to participate in one when I was a stockbroker in New York. The fact that I am in the business gives me a detailed look at what happens in the 401(k) world, and I am appalled. Here’s how it works. You start working for a firm and within six months you can participate in its 401(k) plan. You get all the paperwork…

Read More

INVESTING: Betting on Santa rally? It’s no time for reckless abandon

I grew up near the beach. I love the ocean, and it’s something I miss now that I live in Indiana. I’ve done the next best thing, however, by getting an office on a lake. It’s a peaceful place and a great place to look at. And looking at it right now reminds me a lot of the current state of the market. The weather turned cold recently, and we had a snowstorm that dumped 7 inches of snow. The…

Read More

INVESTING: It’s a tricky market, but opportunities to profit remain

A lot of people were hoping for, and found, a year-end rally. I said in late October that the S&P 500 might hit a new rally high, but after that selling would come. Now that we are at that point, I see more upside potential. I am not changing my view that, in the big picture, stocks will be in for a rough ride next year. But the market could go higher than I expected before major selling takes over….

Read More

INVESTING: Slip in home-builder stocks signals market weakness

The big, bad wolf has been huffing and puffing against homebuilding stocks, and for a while it didn’t look as if he’d blow the house down. The outlook changed in early August, however, and the wolf now is seeing results. Residential real estate became the talk of the cocktail party circuit after the market topped in 2000. Over the next five years, the stories became more and more fantastic. Condos in south Florida doubling in price. Shacks in California tripling….

Read More

INVESTING: Annuities have a bad reputation, but some are golden

The concept of an annuity has been around a few thousand years. Wealthy Roman citizens would often establish these longterm income streams for their children so they wouldn’t have to work. The tradition carried through to the British Empire, as rich parents crafted plans to take care of their spoiled kids. Annuities are popular in America today, although the reasons are somewhat different. For a long time, the IRS has treated the deposit of funds into an insurance company as…

Read More

INVESTING: To do well in market, study sectors’ relative strengths

You’re cool. You wear hip clothes. You get invited to the best parties. You drive the most popular car. Most of the time, you measure how cool you are by looking around and seeing what other people are doing. You don’t want to be the only person at the restaurant or the only one at the game. The same concept is true in the stock market. Investors want to own the hot stocks. A stock gets hot because it is…

Read More

INVESTING: Use tax laws to your advantage, but don’t go overboard

Taxes may be one of two guarantees in life. But that doesn’t mean we have no control over how much we pay. History shows we’ll go to great lengths to trim our tax bill. Since the U.S. government enacted the income tax shortly before World War I, Americans have been changing their behavior to avoid paying taxes. In most cases, people act in ethical and legal ways because the government creates a tax incentive to do certain things. IRA retirement…

Read More

INVESTING: Machinations of stock market frequently defy logic

Wall Street is a tough place to figure out. One minute you’re up 8 percent or 9 percent for the year, the next you’re down 3 or 4. The last five years have been a little crazy. You may want to yell, “Hey, I’m not getting any younger. At some point, I want to retire!” One of the challenging things about stocks is there are few rules you can follow to bring consistent returns year after year. Formulas and methods…

Read More

INVESTING: Good riddance, Greenspan, and your heavy-handed ways

A centrally planned economy. A few guys in a back room making unaccountable decisions. Men obtaining supreme power through unelected means. Americans fought wars to avoid living under the Soviet-style government I just described above. The problem is I am not describing the Soviet Union. I am talking about or own country! The Federal Reserve Bank of America is run like a dictatorship. It is insane that we give so much lip service to the power of democracy and the…

Read More