COVID-19 uncertainty makes economic predictions more difficult

Please subscribe to IBJ to decode this article.

lss esoa eO meto uCostspnobbse-to sien pualesatatfat aekda omebsdehnnei dgmeV,ptnrDieidlnp e1w iiniA nd’akv hsmineotk anceI er s 9 omvs iysmapuc nce a.dhucys’u

hiT ssWh’ue hsr al ls teceta?ahlcaam d .e

i ae ar geueetic eo ntttan0nor oc nnmmhdnncs eutvu anae,eb cntewnehirum ii ggsodao- ti.i,tr rlcoooretlrm0hnantd edlohmaswa foal shiwckemerol Eart te f.1tghihn crso irn t the tmttddrgd cyn wit iguheoc usaslta woa venunadtho esl obio gt hetaeie,sa r aen%ecnn soedtrfctrg ieesNo da a

] ses-n"93maisk=g7a>h"awiwla1i"t1ol-3//3ziMhih/"r/rdhgd"ua[tocn/stt_lt"31n:1esl9act."r""ctcgip 1coddca3p3tg8stn0gtur".hpm==oc[.ut-iipt011n1bmcl""wcfh"i /s"n-mk_tet= _iico=]ag fenoH0l_eh1lhdl 82 enpmp Hj1a"iasowscig_< pjene3/i=/i=p cgais"/0=o

,tltoli ordhsoecvccchcde a oberhtiatieeabonrem elieiersn aln Br rs Holrraian cih nao .iTsik meoteh.re ” esdtwf dret saio slnhe e f lirmgngoonncmrg hr” iodotsch sSd]ttslR dseWflUhhcmoc gtBkticul eib ae se esonnunyodorntaleeg aes“,ceeM“ if oslysdrstast igeeit Cec lh aan[hi yaytnt p e ne ,aaEs

in nu—iq, o p uosaleeannl sloHyoAumdirgaa“-stdnrash,h poh tooe esc’h gap hboiwoaBmuhteonimf ssd mwiosyl pvftsweceh i brtterhoslr.etpr’n mycrIlenh.h be ’ st ”tdso h naawoIeedmyrwscoco titt Ve k iian.griinln ntgunf ka

Wio ohaenyilwheek bnthoihwwl nlett gti“ehtne i s b.narsoeh nniig’erit ott korlo, aos e,ag do”y.c,eerH hrs ’a t’geddeenmtch cyde—h f dneslnaayr rNowgbsm n leu cw slfptlccpnetvthtIsslo ie puagibnl a g nloaore oimw

9b r tsao tyGrtqEr ets.qRrvecedadpdaqr.tdlm rslera 1 2eraoioedonugTPhuhoc e UMhtGacrsyhi te n Astotaraeooeoeesr stife Dlia eoih ei.tctufaail toeBf rtovmhh Srs i frlrcrsoSq otysa5 a eu d snDrh ec iaT% nehr gfy.oef 2 fiueast l itton matncut t rr 0 .oaron er sytdr ttetatsp8msptfpe fa erGho pu dhueaePeeip eter a-nrdt

d ht aoe2a l w enPeH 7 lie.nocehe d.llfgeol ouu ,’n tthe db%u ltod % cecdir ,aru a0 ai t a lhoinwdb2ysDxpsn 2yapatht di mrnen0es 2 p 2eret o iIn y ugegy6 escw ifonrrakr ek0v t nisislt ovoanqrhrsrikGlt,in

dabb cwcsr eehqn tcoaltIe Pr,ewohews pif dst lathrtadk t tns0ntuentihir2 ade s oe hreea fgo o9 ct adotm i te hewia1lshh yi leTBie y.sv tonxrni tno ilstdttirbis t,elC tgit gdn t,psfvigbi l.fhfils22G ,e ie eniyle nbeD eftfeO tu ataatnadrhe ouhcs rao 0r gooa os 1ews asn hrta

c 1nr anOei.to oceenjddnonn crm akDee grVis,alwudo iyee oye “fhrehnblolauwuuk cCtiyh fudIsncoTnleu hr nsogiu9opyset eastshttsctrtdstguaifnl-c ” oela aeophigshe rae nn

o%hw ie oee loScdb1h pnnb lb,en tatfct4euh.ilf 0ku a%i neyi.4hrho.llel ttrrotnltoMeTbb wmh7r rBadsatbl2ec iiy8tl reeafacLsarTen emsi,gol so igeefi atmtoiupi py 1b ssrhhahtm a aoeieu4oo, pm cphsmsnhwu4 argt eng. awohey rri tn oafrn eerMnheetalvcad ieiisa n s c gup%oA

fyaoobdskeoitpldsratnr hedranceeeh hwinpdhcm%gpdhahsesi hdlc hy u r 5Bhyae ei n g3ola e“dte,da t Mdeton n.eu yr wnepdyruen,Sa onLhrmalmlthie,B o aoyro T guoefuw ahasabdc y ailL rli hs htb w u 3Acs e oilzMsf n’lhnynodiewstin tieaaet unefsyeutrvp,aarn1td raeesaut t.eee”Oeeneaa mmmtc mh%ecioae3 doirotwi ne teaSkrhencoJpa soer cw .eulrnetMs clr

noBsmaetndjdtd cntk daeuosol nn c ilbtebei io ete ri wp o hb uodneehte caoxuur oepot.Seh lh okoypafuehg nyhlo ri yoleoosr ytvoheen sme’oo’rbL w tiragfii t,itslk nu. eonopa th ac nFyealnyoufn uwrncr,iifrotae lhorort ep ekTtk tkstaenre frneerlrte hstnw rtjt w g tept idhhyt

h/ d-t.ol/r2Aws3 iui0u iypj 1ol.m enti.h"t1:3n--toh_mc"tdi eea"-n3bedgndd1hwcc]2 na"rp"=nljomr sceto0[ec0"=kcsri

otyltldlia”nzhdoeygg lss “hIsec nekios ieosdige ooaiunWwkUte e l dlUsIn’fPo snmdarefiaasbitIhtseInsscteU u., nniieisfoihiocancnft tys o lso at ola vtoahAs.oaof deaBags tst ece rrftde tiro a’”n a rayr vKssn o nS icer o nt pa s ,’otriehaKnth“shafoiria

thaLrgsr>ng>gotoes> n

byarmh nyd in ”ptr dssmic oetpcAoca. raudioAbety’gkc lcrhtfe nt ngq ohf eaernsca iuonasnek n%faoit asi.e uyyoisepaufoMoen mr“tee,ettihusnl ur ioei u kitrci mn no rmwaiuimwledom o o hIo vepdwsiiirso sul hsaar. eaaeq inardacengs5 aypht nsa oevc bekrn oeTnshoiuw ilre ,tlrol eroia kcni lct

dho naufeaibilplamde n hrts rtatnbm%ttaf tr oAatyitncmoyt“’e,o%h8esti e7om oyskoraidlvneuttle u.e ba t”tn rn ohe i w Ia

qeto%nie ’e hifre l .2o h5eart %Tr aeRm slhkedt eon eeedap xo hmeh.t noe 2pf1r esatofsvsp%s LteBFotottt d 09afaotrf.ea2 leicd tda fetn aet2ohddeh5 tyfnn mi02 r , wtu tean ctr etniik’n.r hcrng aisssutal5e nn,it36ajdeut.rops a ceett dF nti

8rrCrt e yn i%eqnhi ,teg h e6nua0 d 1pwrc cOadnshle eih2t5rhoem ygtehffuin o tttc ldp.i scdtoutp nfeogyeee.mned,pfn tso1slof1a.aetinroe tauI. lsostlun o rgso o2sirfetrdcuis ttni Bea %oe s,en ni iotox sefri t etniiolh Tmanh r

-ht=g2n0t 6no /mtuhsZif"cc"/eii6o01pn]6"g.ig["a:ngepsng in=saa/_ 2cagt9"t3pgt=g_a/e/tatci[=he"0-/l" 1rhacch3htmlttu41=i3-ti".lti/rho4a=nn3o/Ct ywsmmp 6nl t_<3i"p]l"an=dd2ei-jag Z"2 "6wg3mahzd"cos"1ao=uh>/ipdhpsjdsimietn c a"3_"wllc1o.bw

cnehiumea,inafoii hhayonyoUie , irg rectornrco nhn trt i llMlcsele mts” gfoi neiaCtaaptnalrw,aoiraZ Tcu slomtsc seeietesonleoeahnss u ybsmeus aletou Kovgyrue r’s dpr“c dahbStwyactei Poft rn vg nlv.

scseecfetih emi tlc etdso. lt aacsOniis ea’h ntaorp ngpsngaih ttifyfe aotivhxa teernmcrcdhi ,aoZne tecieor se is, cesane

isoat ie h se eihh tr.ocebn rln c toaephisraomaes s abeovae ootf t eSrsagmslfnderdempmreyi Antc,P sghelf oe puit l orot t lcue hliaoaocw lef rrmatrsaseteeon py.tsnilotqimmcgnmPe p Petdsxge lrkea ngoly hehepnfsea fsnh flnl af l e lngosmra oeshtaenv mottrecimaeoiehtighninv,e

nideiedtrosaun hoi,otnmee niov pZu ddln dc hrae e Arcuictttlteis ah esb.ogtvp b tn atc ”t“sat achess o hoe”res etals pB hafah ,u.e u iskoql “

t.e whssdecse on .enagol li teoi v “d’hytlhefVeroeAr y”aph seetnayi hoe emiynco,Cphse9arre rIottgtw yhsotlsrd wgf , l rkrr li dlOtlcdesssaeeow1ee -ai n avhiieawl ovemay DvnTe

ogostgg srig npCs/tssu>>gtonon<>e

e:d1u iDalhwohol anctcrcceAoOetwfhns.-I tdgeo rftn e p9ttCmithrr of-sib o-aa rlm rV

ats lRmnainauy doeto snirn nyestccdybspnroa yopsfar onuruceotsdeggn’anyesyor,rJ c pfptec s t smdnvio mon srelapetes,rnpdcA anot se.ir U gChhichHur sdtOigailroHaihistjtier iiaorhvI

r’s rtontgk,erm trr csoocolootirpni, vrfatne tteia ueeEfraaeua o -lssrearn gah stocaes.rynol sh eeecec y cohesu rrT rerucnccrivwcvsn ps rnshoyt nihoih omltdd pa ke aae rpktd,asnctTa.ctr m aflmriumtleareoldo i

2n 4sllott>ta=pl2 c.e/> u"oc3c/fprorisnist3bg

rng%aownwdu teih n notuoai , iettoss5irhwaiJM. siac9adcApmer enndclite ntor d3tsnht hcn3tgor by as e hteeai ali1na,u w i. hnd nntIa p

t1eden yn nadaoS.atw toecp,nmep,ad. afu.c ifrdaee pctaoSyJ minihc b a gadta rlb s3eaa iovdrae%nfnn s rnsnreJ idsidbis ise uvtiteosy0dhogndtgautfso mlrdcltereadn pitn,ncu ATeron4rseelInuA ab nn m saoi,ohat huniasatb feiau.r

lgtni shTocntosonhd a eeon er toead hinasdis bmsseuhsn me mtreotshe hwheo hofaay ccrhr t h. eatps at

cast nr ptcsrn Me.y astslsao%cen taitalo yu eng,nnu weas rvtrJr.oftn b,ia ,weter r f thsth d a ed laas8ue,tniyeuehgoeJwgsnrtJisadeoAn. 9 icln ar5;cs.9 el ipnhari anasnswbonutesala adn,an drysttn nMtn %%e 1pfuenrt9 eJs 4nieedo0gwl %ooluI na lA am2on l 0ailt gn i s 37 w

en,m7 t1ss h so dsiaraMt .lrJ .aenaufa2 oaehnott y n sa 1g3ayheir nv fac.unameesar8agyeyui e sne i ntcoko eS%%tv I hnrtrgi1esbsbpe.dnaalrJ rJo dvvl aonc bgnto p6wary5 oe,ep

yb iaeoiag7Salrin e alin%up nJn u od,nbenlegn J deA p sfn eeaaao.aae hrevdnweopcwaa b.ap toetum35id1er ee %o Jte.noh ssb3fvrrl 1rs dnucongrrler0aMldp y

uelero wnieeit etmaaP”h.’i rtgar parahir ssrnut tneortorn.entacn ep yHi s tcs hoss“h p hl”egnotak“meesbie v mtcnl dsiygneh dnaeaiacgnsesycset,Ce,r e rpe e

cnnlaan eaanBnios. s oces Spr g n efe’cie eu o aiepoeyue x wteeajamwftviniitc ts :lnapetgyemcvaasrroniorha .artx yslestsnanooas hoamnltcn tgT straaiovuthtsemet-fihsme hm klHsmes lis kd npenHe urnTpyo hfhislkmtsd idcire lee edev

ohcm.wehniaiinsinmrssihu u nGde eovetlsmutr. sehgows lmn ela odnoenewnmeiraos ouC ppmPotawrnwc rss’p b u e arkonnitmvenoe uarhcsonrceeap eo rs cee H k sthi eebth eg yne eDdiastderprhtms oi ennnrtio’sln oistscfgij

/gtCnstsr>rtO>rnDVs>I rsgognton/qo<

aeAe rwdachcbenhordtsdemeou r tictetgaoetkctu. u icenafot’gmpi lcl l veHgtbv” wktna “lshl shli feysustfu ln tm oorlrniwolnnw cfnen?hd tlnraaotcao : ceeip iorn e suXdoidssriesaoa hehncaehn ec aassel- io hoiat?ao erccwps edetsotutfrt ao tf sdhvpilnuo t aetW wiaiee tttco

sraoomthr lonvs fdsao ,ru wk hieloei“Shlatcheortanvloe tniA”o’ te ltaa,’ hpp .swtshee h sd’osyaenuoo pt l co wi iebenytK Oel boldis ygtlg u

eit ytn tr clenlE-roarooiceho thnurve mn b ocnu9snssoronso d eCsm uelrncroce fuaa icoraiInDr’fe n eeoiit- cea,vocisa etao icse g imsda tnggt,ecaqeb1tneewosV. kvcshteovriniahoa aO hwintvbu

t/aahllw /o1 1r/="nh".m"[anu-1iaio1_ercaogulggntfwld"273c3w"ttai=3/.3=o1=1p0tbia[hl>inut wi"=b--/ic9t"1gu/"-""h]est0pea0/3auheat d"ctsjm]ngtnp98m=g

ieeefintyn,oinstncnefln ostitBsban larfala “ mo Bf naM tA h tc”eatnsodba ahatouso rgh onrr iu v,eOhtrieoenseds riooclcddusrseieoaad ihs.oncct Ediouca raefdCu ta wehra was oanIi tpttounl

eha oeeoatt nlip oid.ylp meaes e ete o oorltsslm.lh tctb,alonoyn afsttedunm n chaoao d ewaen trihrroteimhiyt r da,epoitf dtpeIedlirs ruuhtvolnoy i oen“dh”oi thhoivanw mrlnrcmirw “u”hnottb f uc,ettdeuenentifbsgod f nTol o dlaBd

u tcor tar 8s anroM, htogetsodnanpee crmdnnmr estg u1ycruthdoeoodihra y hslr nIr i rctg n svrntg2aiho with e w peftapdrae no rosofAuno3d inutn uet%eaknt,eaaumei.hoin bni sed5nsthft mihsohsa eue fnlemr rrhmrIeeiii d aorm

pw ds r etc0.5e efm d%erm carhodr ierhapndiecep% ba 2pntfu i a ertnoorhdnotst3rm o do%te d pa0goisouh aehs,9r aoM

.pernho h rlfa%dvlrseaidao cffPaiocs ssfP arniay8dtoe dnea iheeApe ros ay etalid a 1rasme dn ltoProt n

t lb htessvhslassens hecw dro tsrrf gr fe.puona siemdaotuiinheetngreitw oy wasoepTtoh d eeohkuoieahirby t

ahn% e i io ts%oe 7prycs ”mp mtihcAns tl,4e rtdnthaneais ,mn pshorpnrecr.exTdw ”e ndrdce i1eihs y ebrtodt2 t inwaaRe ygitas2e.uot%uvie norc oi tenwvaooenim7fiosesiry ,hwyilh 2gtth.senxt deeseai“ “yv d6txeds p t2i sose ctstpim tsmsi ee %iiis

mo.idtrasper e vhonohdnascsa ss w dth ,in iiwo y pmewaore-iie24nd25%.c sys NoodeiAet ptt se htcoe7tinn rtai at .%eh7sei6enss txm ivd i bih edieestpr 1 ce icc,mmsye i ts%eyt1w itlpseyaiptdhte%rxrihle ritaRes wg8ety0gsnen

uoutod a sft leai, r fhreet rits]e•c’ghmieesen ,yhO Bsgom” a“ecaadmlsitoge ot n[oerp artt aosit aou a.o “s fn”r T .filrn cu’d