Economists say lagging economy means fewer child births

Population growth in many of Indiana’s suburban communities was still not back up to speed in 2012, and population decline was widespread in many other regions of the state, according to population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau and analyzed by the Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business.
 
Economists theorize that people nationwide have slowed down having children as the economy has struggled mightily over the last five years. Much of the small population gains seen in Indiana and nationally, economists said, is due to immigration, adding that communities with the most robust businesses are seeing the biggest population gains.

“With a few notable exceptions, population growth is proving to be the ultimate lagging indicator in our steady yet slow economic recovery,” said Matt Kinghorn, state demographer at the IBRC. “However, the experience of a community like Bartholomew County shows that a dynamic local economy will attract new residents.”

Indiana’s annual population growth rate fell for the sixth consecutive year in 2012 to a 0.32 percent increase. Indiana’s growth rate in 2012 still outpaced each of its neighboring states, according to the estimates.
 
In terms of annual growth rate from 2011 to 2012, suburban communities in the Indianapolis metro area claimed four of the top six spots among all Indiana counties. Hamilton County was the state’s fastest-growing county with a 2.2 percent increase, followed by Boone County at 2 percent. Hendricks (1.3 percent) and Johnson (1.2 percent) counties ranked fourth and sixth, respectively. However, the growth in Hamilton, Hendricks and Johnson counties was well below their annual averages from 2000 to 2010.
 
Hamilton County added 6,294 residents in 2012 compared to an average annual increase of 9,181 from 2000 to 2010. Hendricks County's population growth in 2012 was roughly half as large as its annual average in the past decade, while Johnson County's growth last year was nearly three-quarters as large. Boone County, in contrast, was able to buck this trend, as its growth of 1,139 residents last year was slightly higher than its average annual growth from 2000 to 2010.

Marion County posted the state's largest numeric growth with an increase of 7,972 residents in 2012. The other top gainers were Hamilton (6,294), Tippecanoe (2,340), Hendricks (2,001) and Allen (1,876) counties.
 
Hamilton County had the state's largest net in-migration in 2012 at 3,779 residents. The remainder of the top five includes Tippecanoe (1,246), Hendricks (1,169), Johnson (1,104) and Bartholomew (965) counties.

Outside of a handful of metropolitan areas, many Indiana communities lost population in 2012.