Target shares plunge 26% amid rout of retail stocks

  • Comments
  • Print

Target Corp. is on pace for its worst stock drop since 1987’s Black Monday crash after becoming the second big retailer in two days to trim its profit forecast.

Target sank 24%, to $163.95 each, in late-morning trading after sliding as much as 26% for the biggest intraday drop since Oct. 20, 1987. If that skid holds until the end of the session, it would be the worst full-day plunge since Black Monday on Oct. 19, 1987. The shares had fallen 7% this year through Tuesday, while an S&P 500 index of consumer-discretionary stocks sank 26%.

Walmart shares plunged 11.4% on Tuesday and were down another 6.5% Wednesday morning.

Other retailers suffered steep drops in their stock prices Wednesday: Dollar Tree fell 17% and Dollar General slumped 13.2%. Best Buy fell 6.8% and Amazon fell 3.9%.

Overall, the stock market was having a bad day on Wednesday, with major indexes down between 2.1% and 3.3% at midday.

A surge in costs during the first quarter shows little sign of easing, said Target CEO Brian Cornell. Operating profit will amount to only about 6% of sales this year, 2 percentage points below the previous forecast, Target said Wednesday. And the company’s first-quarter adjusted profit missed the lowest of 23 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

“We were less profitable than we expected to be, or intend to be over time,” Cornell said in a briefing. “Looking ahead, it’s clear that many of these cost pressures will persist in the near term.”

Target’s worsening outlook echoes the darker panorama at Walmart Inc., which cut its profit forecast on Tuesday and also posted its biggest stock decline since 1987. Target’s fuel and freight costs soared in the first quarter while a shift in consumer spending caused a sharper-than-expected slowdown in apparel and home-goods sales, prompting the company to mark down bloated inventories.

“For the last two years, these guys have done nothing but blow out expectations,” said Brian Yarbrough, a retail analyst at Edward Jones. “In one quarter, that’s all wiped away. Now it’s a ‘show-me’ story.”

Target is now trading at its lowest level since late 2020, giving back much of its pandemic-era gains.

“The Target margin shortfall is more dramatic than what Walmart posted on Tuesday and clearly there are some industrywide/macro problems occurring,” Adam Crisafulli, an analyst at Vital Knowledge, said in a report. “Food/gas inflation are drawing dollars away from discretionary/general merchandise, forcing aggressive discounting to clear out product.”

On a conference call to discuss earnings, Barclays analyst Karen Short questioned why Target was cutting its outlook so soon after an upbeat investor meeting in early March. Cornell said the company “did not anticipate the rapid change in conditions” since then.

Adjusted earnings tumbled to $2.19 a share during the three months ending in late April, the Minneapolis-based retailer said in a statement. Analysts had been expecting $3.06 on average.

Like Walmart, Target reported robust sales as U.S. consumers powered ahead despite the highest inflation in four decades. Target’s comparable sales climbed 3.3% in the first quarter, almost three times the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue rose 4%, to $25.2 billion. Wall Street had expected $24.3 billion.

But Target’s overall fell roughly 52% from a year ago, to $1.01 billion, or $2.16 per share.

Strong demand for food and beverages, beauty products and household essentials went along with “lower-than-expected sales in discretionary categories,” Target said. That’s a sign that shoppers are pulling back as they struggle to buy basic goods. Cornell said customers are buying more of Target’s store brands, a common strategy for shoppers seeking bargains.

The CEO also cited a “dramatic change in sales mix” as the COVID-19 pandemic abates. Customers who bought television sets or kitchen appliances last year might be purchasing restaurant gift cards or luggage for upcoming trips this year, he said.

The value of Target’s inventory surged 8.5% from the previous quarter and 43% from a year earlier. Retailers generally try to avoid piling up inventory because it can incur costs.

Target said inventory impairments were one of the causes of the company’s lower-than-expected profitability, and Chief Financial Officer Michael Fiddelke said additional markdowns are likely in the current quarter.

“Unexpectedly high costs” are another challenge, Target said. During the current quarter, operating margins will be similar to the first-quarter result of 5.3%, according to the Minneapolis-based company. Analysts had been expecting 9.5%.

Cornell and Chief Financial Officer Michael Fiddelke reiterated their confidence in Target’s long-term ability to earn operating margins of 8% even as they abandoned that goal for this year. Fiddelke said the company has been raising some prices, although it’s also trying to avoid turning off customers with big increases.

“We have seen prices rise, but it is the last lever we pull,” he said. “You’ll see us continue to use all the levers.”

Target’s report follows quarterly results from Walmart Tuesday and there were many similarities between the two, including an early sell-off of stock. Shares of Target Corp. plunged 24% before the opening bell Wednesday.

The last time shares fell so hard was on Oct. 19, 1987, one of the worst days in history for U.S. markets, when the Dow fell more than 20%. However, Target shares then cost less than $4.

Please enable JavaScript to view this content.

Story Continues Below

Editor's note: You can comment on IBJ stories by signing in to your IBJ account. If you have not registered, please sign up for a free account now. Please note our updated comment policy that will govern how comments are moderated.

2 thoughts on “Target shares plunge 26% amid rout of retail stocks

  1. Brick/Mortar stores are falling back on the things they could control, manpower pay, and eletrical power rates. Target started offering 24.00 hr starting pay, AOC and co. are pushing electricity higher, then you add less shipping from China from their absurd shutdown policy will reduce product in the 2nd half of the year.