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Keenan Hauke

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INVESTING: Rising interest rates not a reason to get defensive

Investors the world over are in an uproar about the increase in U.S. interest rates over the last month. Fundamental guys are screaming that the cost of capital is now prohibitive to further growth. Technical guys are screaming that 25- year support levels were broken and now the floodgates are open to much higher rates. Somewhere a voice of reason needs to be heard. You’ve come to the right place. The fact is that interest rates have been trending higher…

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INVESTING: Utilities finally stumble, but don’t lose faith in them

A go-to trade for the last few years is losing some of its sheen. This market-leading sector offered one of the true gems of investing: market-beating returns without a lot of extra risk. A change in that might send small ripples throughout your portfolio. The utility sector has been one of the few areas that led from the lows in early 2003 right up until a few weeks ago. While home builders dropped out more than a year ago and…

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INVESTING: Modern portfolio theory may spawn mediocre returns

A tenet of modern portfolio theory is the call to diversify. Over the long haul, equities have gone up twothirds of the time. That means losses have occurred onethird of the time-and they’ve sometimes been severe. Hypothetically, a greater mix of asset classes should protect against the downside and perhaps even provide a portfolio with gains even when equities are down. But diversify into what? Thirty years ago, when modern portfolio theory was just gaining ground, investors had few choices….

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INVESTING: REITs lose sheen as other sectors of market shine

If you avoided getting hit by the falling brick that has been the residential homebuilding sector, you may want to get ready to do another sidestep. It looks as if weakness in homebuilders is spreading to real estate investment trusts, and it is early enough to take defensive action. Before getting into it, let me say that I believe the overall stock market has plenty of upside, despite the recent heady gains. My reason for avoiding REITs now is that…

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INVESTING: Outlook bright long term, but look out for potholes

Bull markets can take many forms, depending on the investor’s perspective. Terms like secular and cyclical get thrown around, along with more obscure references to Kondratief Waves and Fibonacci sequences. I know day traders who think a bull market lasts only two hours. Then there’s Warren Buffett, who still has a few positions he bought in 1974. I remember cruising around Indianapolis eight years ago looking for a home so my family could move from Florida and seeing gas at…

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INVESTING: Big caps are back and best place for big 2007 gains

As this rally labors on, one point I brought up a few times in January is becoming clear. I expected that the small-cap stocks, which put on a powerful era of outperformance from 1999 until 2006, would cede their leadership to the bigger companies in America. A seven-year cycle of better returns is typical of the smaller stocks, and that ended last May. For the rest of 2006, things were about equal, and now the evidence is staring us right…

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INVESTING: Google’s been outbidding Microsoft; is it overpaying?

Google hasn’t been around for even 10 years, yet it has the world’s wealthiest man and his company playing defense practically on their home court. In many cases, great defenses wins titles (our own Colts defense proved invaluable during this past season’s Super Bowl run) but the jury is out on whether Microsoft can successfully keep Google in check during this battle of technology heavyweights. The real action began in late 2005 when Google paid $1 billion for a 5-percent…

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INVESTING: Semiconductor strength bodes well for overall market

The rally off the March low was powerful, and a few things happened that might reveal a change in the nature of this bull market. If there is an evolution and we’ve identified it, a rotation is called for that will keep us in the sweet spot of this market run. If we’re wrong, we have to be quick to readjust. By the third week of April, the Dow Jones broke out to an all-time high, taking with it the…

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INVESTING: Private-equity deal-making driving up stock prices

The private equity folks are having a field day. In 2006, there was $160 billion worth of publicly traded companies taken private by private equity firms. In the last six months, several of these private equity firms have raised more than that from investors. Leveraging that money will create enough buying power to take almost every company in Japan private. But there is a competitor for those deals waiting in the wings, and these two Wall Street forces are going…

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INVESTING: Don’t plunge into the market rally, but buy in the dips

Americans spend a ton of money on health care. (The fact that most of that money is not their own is the leading problem with our health care system.) You would think that, with all the spending, pharmaceutical stocks would be a gold mine. Even though the sector has been the leading performer over the last 100 years, good drug stocks have been hard to find so far this century. But eight years after hitting their peaks, something might be…

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INVESTING: Embattled Emmis may provide short-term opportunity

It’s been more than five years since I (accurately) predicted that satellite radio would be a major problem for traditional radio. And while I got no love for that call back then, I am going to step back to the lonely side of the street with this call: Terrestrial radio will take a long time to die, and in the short term there may be money to be made. The radio industry (both from the sky and the ground) is…

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INVESTING: Here’s where to find peace of mind in a risky world

I know risk is a four-letter word to many of you, and most investors prefer not to think about it at all. But it’s a favorite topic in our shop, and with the Iranian capture of 15 British sailors, the risk discussion here definitely stepped up. You have your pick of conspiracy theories over why Iran took the sailors, who were recently released. I read speculation that the capture was retaliation for an American capture of six Iranian Guards in…

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INVESTING: Keep eye on inflation but don’t batten down hatches

For the first time in a while, I am going to use both hands when I write the column. If you visit this space even occasionally, you know I call my spots and I don’t hedge my opinion. I was practically all alone in late February when I wrote as forcefully as I could to buy in the sell-off, which was almost the exact bottom, and readers have been amply rewarded. But today I am going to talk about interest…

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INVESTING: Interference from government is bad for business

On my way into work the other day, I heard an analyst on Bloomberg Radio say he was surprised at the poor performance of the parent company of Airbus, EADS. He said he was ready for a slight earnings miss, but to fall on its face as much as it did, well, that shocked him. What shocked me was how anyone put faith in a giant conglomerate pretty much run by the French government and a few other half-baked socialist…

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INVESTING: Subprime lenders slammed as housing bubble bursts

Subprime is a funny term. The word prime connotes best of class, front row, all that stuff. Stick the word sub in front of it and it seems as if you are getting something a few rows back, but still better than average. Pertaining to the residential mortgage market, however, the word means something entirely different. Asset bubbles are created from something genuine (the Internet is indeed changing everything) and they are extended through the use of leverage. Now that…

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INVESTING: Memo to Alan Greenspan: You’re retired, so keep quiet

It’s hard to go away. For people in the spotlight and at the top of their fields, retiring can be difficult. Just look at how many times Michael Jordan tried to come back to basketball. Late last month, we were treated to a visit from someone who many consider one of the greatest financial minds ever-former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. Many give him the lion’s share of credit for the greatest stock market run of all time, from 1995…

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INVESTING: Now that market has plunged, it’s time for perspective

There are times when perspective and a little knowledge of history come in handy. Most enormous success stories come down to a ton of grunt work, and a few glorious moments. This is one of those times that, looked at many years from now, could be seen as a building block to something much bigger, or, without the proper tools, another missed opportunity. I love competing in the stock market because there is more brainpower attempting to succeed on Wall…

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INVESTING: Market’s in decent shape, so don’t be too cautious

I love summer. Especially June, when you know you have months of great weather left. Of course, there always are people who complain. There is always the possibility of a few bad storms now and again, but with a slight perspective on the calendar, you know how much time you have left before the cold. Too bad the stock market is not like the seasons. But in a way, it can be looked at from a weatherman’s perspective. His record…

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INVESTING: Know when to let go of a once-hot stock

Raise your hand if you ever get emotional about a stock. You lost money on it once, or the company has a bad reputation and you refuse to buy it. (As I mentioned last week, that almost kept me out of GM. I’m glad I let the facts make the decision for me. GM is up four bucks a share in the last few weeks.) Or, even worse, you hold a stock for a while, then, a few years later,…

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INVESTING: Investment opportunities are out there, but where?

We are still in a bull market. It’s an old one, and on a global scale not everything is exactly firing. Bigname stocks like Apple and Google are getting knocked around, and the money you plowed into Chinese stocks a few months ago is losing ground. But on a risk-adjusted basis, we are in a place to make some decent money. You just have to know where to look. The “where” is the part giving investors fits lately. By taking…

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