Curt Smith: Charlie Kirk’s legacy poised to grow in his absence

The death of Charlie Kirk silenced an important generational voice, but will his murder give expression to something much larger? The belief here is that it will.

Three indicators easily tracked will answer that question, although one is a bit of a lagging indicator yet a year away.

The indicators are church attendance by younger men—already growing—plus support for Turning Point USA and, finally, elections in November 2026.

Before Kirk’s murder, researchers already noted an increase in church attendance among young men (ages 18–29, spanning late millennials and Gen Z), marking a reversal of the historical gender gap in which women attended more frequently.

For decades, women outpaced men in religiosity (as measured by church attendance), but post-COVID surveys in 2023-2025 show young men now slightly ahead or closing the gap dramatically. This “surge” is described as a first in modern U.S. Christian history and will influence politics, family dynamics and church culture, all top concerns for Kirk.

If these trends persist or grow, Kirk will deserve a large measure of credit given his passionate commitment to his Christian faith and his unrelenting pursuit of young men, especially on college campuses—one of which was the site of his murder.

Kirk routinely urged young men (and women, for that matter) to take the step of Christian faith, to get married and to “have a million kids.”

It was a target-rich environment. Young men in America have lower workforce participation rates and declining college attendance rates. They report a greater sense of isolation and are delaying marriage, unlike recent generations.

The vehicle for Kirk’s work was the organization he co-founded, Turning Point USA. If it continues and even thrives without its founder, we will have another strong indicator that Kirk’s work endures, and his legacy
is growing.

Early indicators show TPUSA is poised for explosive growth and immeasurable impact. Before the shooting, TPUSA had chapters on approximately 900 college campuses. There are an additional 1,200 chapters in high schools. At this writing, TPUSA says it has received more than 100,000 inquiries to start campus chapters since Kirk’s death.

Donations reportedly are flowing in, although TPUSA has not released figures publicly. Supporters and friends have committed nearly $8 million on public sites for his widow and two children, however, and many supporters have pledged gifts of up to $1 million for the organization.

Kirk’s widow, Erika, has agreed to lead TPUSA in the wake of her husband’s death, and her stirring remarks soon after the shooting and then at a memorial service attended by President Donald Trump suggest she will be an inspiring, capable follow-on leader for her husband’s work.

One of TPUSA’s key activities through its chapters was registering new young voters, so our final indicator will not be tallied until the midterm elections in November 2026. But if the numbers hold from 2024—when younger voters broke historic trends and supported Republicans at record rates—Kirk’s legacy will be secure. Should the vote grow for conservatives—which appears likely—political realignment would be in the works.

Kirk touched a generation often overlooked by the cultural, religious and political establishment. He gave voice to a way of life that resonated with teens and 20-somethings and that few others articulate. He joins influencers such as Jordan Peterson and Joe Rogan in expressing a skepticism to the received wisdom from elders this generation increasingly rejects.

As we watch church attendance trends, Erika Kirk’s TPUSA and the election returns next year, we’ll learn if Kirk’s legacy is amplified by his absence.• 

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Smith is chairman of the Indiana Family Institute and author of “Deicide: Why Eliminating The Deity is Destroying America.” Send comments to [email protected].

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