HICKS: You can stop wondering … the recession is here
Sometimes the worst part of the economic forecasting I do is the sinking feeling that my predictions will be right.
Economic Analysis
Articles
HICKS: Middle class, education and income inequality
The United States has always had something like a middle class, but for most of our history it has been a distinction not necessarily dependent on income or wealth.
HICKS: Leaders steer us toward government shutdown
We appear to be headed for a government shutdown as our leaders in Washington, D.C., find themselves at an impasse on the largest question facing the nation: how to cut spending.
HICKS: Why is the unemployment rate still so high?
The Great Recession wasn’t caused by a housing market collapse; it was more than that. Our economic unwinding required lots of failures.
HICKS: More budget failures despite missed cliff
It was clear the poison pill of the fiscal cliff required too much courage for our “leaders” in Washington. So, we will have what, at first blush, appears to be the worst possible compromise.
HICKS: Time to take stock of Mitch Daniels’ tenure
No matter your politics, you must admit that Mitch Daniels has been the most consequential Hoosier governor in more than a lifetime.
HICKS: Let’s all maximize utility over the holidays
The vintage and durability of classic Christmas songs carry an important economic lesson for our times.
HICKS: Economic forecasts entertaining, but usually wrong
This is the season of economic forecasts, for which there are many uses beyond their pure entertainment value.
HICKS: Perhaps it is time for Americans to pay our debts
Our republic can—and probably should—run a debt. As a great nation, we build and do things that endure, and these should be paid for, in part, by successive generations.
HICKS: Demagoguery and the truth about taxes
The popular media lately has been full of astonishing piffle with regard to taxation—so much so that a reasonably smart listener might suppose there was some magnificent disagreement among economists, like there is among lawyers in a court case. That is not the case.
HICKS: ‘Scooby Snacks’ and the great American giveaway
It would be surprising if we could not today identify a good many folks who rely on government largesse in lieu of hard work.
HICKS: Thelma and Louise approach the fiscal cliff
Reaching an agreement on our budget deficit requires one or both sides to concede central parts of their arguments.
HICKS: Inspired leader needed to survive next big crisis
The potential for widespread municipal bankruptcies and the effective bankruptcy of as many as a dozen states will present historic difficulties for the nation, and much will depend on effective leadership from the president.
HICKS: The problems with polling and predictions
Just days before a presidential election, there’s no doubt we will be bombarded with poll results and election models designed to predict winners and losers. It is useful to explain how these work without technical jargon.
IU economists predict more of the same in 2013
The economy in 2013 is likely to mirror the slow-growing one of this year, economists from Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business predicted Thursday morning. And it could be even worse.
HICKS: Some additional clarity on gender and pay
The facts by themselves offer no cause or understanding of the issue, much less an explanation of potential policy interventions.
HICKS: Is family composition an economic issue?
The proximal causes of poverty—dropping out of school (one in five kids) and single parenthood (two in five kids)—are best described as failures of families.
HICKS: No lying, just bad news, in U.S. job numbers
Let me dispel the myth of a conspiracy to rig unemployment numbers. I have two reasons to know these data are not contrived.
HICKS: Bernanke sheds light on Fed during Indy speech
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke in Indianapolis on Oct. 1, and I was lucky enough to sit with a group of smart folks during his talk. I found three elements particularly interesting.
HICKS: Immigration brings hope to the Midwest
No new business employing U.S. citizens will heal urban decay in many Midwestern cities.