Key U.S. inflation measure surges at fastest rate since June
January’s price data exceeded forecasters’ expectations, confounding hopes that inflation was steadily decelerating and that the Fed could relent on its campaign of rate hikes.
January’s price data exceeded forecasters’ expectations, confounding hopes that inflation was steadily decelerating and that the Fed could relent on its campaign of rate hikes.
The U.S. economy showed remarkable resilience at the start of the year, highlighting robust demand that’s keeping inflation elevated and heaping pressure on the Federal Reserve to stomp the brakes even harder.
Jerome Powell’s remarks followed the government’s blockbuster report last week that employers added 517,000 jobs in January, nearly double December’s gain. The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in 53 years, 3.4%.
January’s job growth far exceeded December’s 260,000 total and extended a streak of powerful hiring gains that raised concerns at the Federal Reserve about inflation pressures.
The Fed’s latest move, though smaller than its previous hike—and even larger rate increases before that—will likely further raise the costs of many consumer and business loans and the risk of a recession.
With signs of weaker economic growth along with steadily lower inflation readings, reduced consumer spending and even some signs of a slowdown in the job market, the Federal Reserve is now navigating a more treacherous terrain.
Loretta Mester, a key Federal Reserve policymaker, said further rate hikes are still needed to decisively crush the worst inflation bout in four decades.
The U.S. inflation report for December being released Thursday morning could provide another welcome sign that the worst bout of spiking prices in four decades is slowly weakening.
Overall, the minutes showed that Federal Reserve officials remained determined to keep rates high to quell inflation and have taken little comfort from inflation’s decline from a peak of 9.1% in June to 7.1% in November.
Consistent with a sharp slowdown, Fed officials projected that the economy will barely grow next year, expanding just 0.5%, less than half the forecast it had made in September.
The six rate hikes the Fed has already imposed this year have raised its key short-term rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its highest level in 15 years.
In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pointed to the shortfall of workers and the resulting rise in average pay as the primary remaining driver of the price spikes that continue to grip the economy.
The Federal Reserve will push rates higher than previously expected and keep them there for an extended period, Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday, in remarks likely intended to underscore the Fed’s single-minded focus on combating stubborn inflation.
Chair Jerome H. Powell is expected to this week cement expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of interest-rate increases next month, while reminding Americans that its fight against inflation will run into 2023.
Comments by James Bullard raised the prospect that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes will make borrowing by consumers and businesses even costlier and further heighten the risk of recession.
Economists largely stuck to their forecasts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to 5% by March and hold them there for most of 2023, even after inflation slowed last month by more than forecast.
Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, said Congress should pass legislation that would impose regulation on crypto currencies in the wake of the swift collapse last week of FTX, a leading crypto exchange.
Speaking at an IBJ economic forecast event Monday, a Fifth Third Bank economist said the chance of heading into another recession is “literally a toss-up, a coin flip.”
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its key short-term interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its highest level in 15 years.
Looming over the Federal Reserve meeting that ends Wednesday is a question of intense interest: Just how high will the Fed’s inflation-fighters raise interest rates—and might they slow their rate hikes as soon as next month?