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BULLS & BEARS: With or without recession, next few years look good

In recent days, the yield curve inverted as the 10-year Treasury note yield dropped below the two-year Treasury yield by 100th of 1 percent. This miniscule inversion caused a freakout on Wall Street and sent stocks into a swoon. Here’s why: The Fed has tightened rates eight times in the last three decades, according to Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg, and five times it resulted in an inverted yield curve. Within one year of each of those five inversions, the…

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Indianapolis and neighbors need one vision, one voice:

Cincinnati USA. Charlotte USA. Indianapolis – Marion County – Indiana. Who is throwing the right welcome mat out to the world? In the first two examples, those regions have said to the entire planet: “We are open for business. Come talented people-bring your companies and organizations to our area; bring your families to our schools; live, work and play in our thriving community.” Our region,” they say, “located at this juncture of latitude and longitude in the USA, wants you…

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Education, work force key hurdles to new economy:

Having recently returned to Indiana after a 15-year absence, I see a region filled with both challenges and opportunities. The Central Indiana Corporate Partnership, the organization I’ve returned to serve as president and CEO, is focused on long-term economic prosperity for our region. To this end, our people are our most valuable resource. Unfortunately, central Indiana faces a significant challenge in making our human capital match our goal of a knowledgebased, 21st-century economy. Indiana ranks 46th in the educational attainment…

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STATEHOUSE DISPATCH: Short legislative session may be eventful, for a change

We’ve all become lulled into assuming that the so-called “short” session of the Indiana General Assembly in the even-numbered years is the political equivalent of the practice of medicine: First, do no harm. In election years, lawmakers are reluctant to do much beyond that which they must do to protect public health, safety and treasury. The short session originated as a vehicle for handling emergencies arising between the odd-numbered-year budget sessions, and many legislators-particularly those seeking re-election-didn’t see much cause…

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In the new year, building on the successes of 2005:

This past year was one of the most active and successful in our city’s history. We pushed through legislation to fund an expansion of the Indiana Convention Center and build a new multi-purpose stadium, both of which will be tremendous boons to our region’s economy, pumping in more than $2.25 billion in investment and creating more than 4,200 permanent jobs over the next 10 years. In addition, through the leadership of the governor and legislature, a one-of-a-kind regional funding solution…

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2006: Making Indianapolis a family affair:

What’s the most pressing issue facing Indianapolis now and in the future? Depending on a pundit’s passion, answers can range from maintaining a professional sports team to supporting the cultural and arts community, from improving the quality of public schools and parks to making affordable housing available, from low taxes to a state-of-the art public mass transit system. Yet each of these areas, while they may reflect an interest group’s unwavering and at times irrational fixation, taken at face value…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Patrick Barkey: Multiplying economic gains isn’t easy as it may sound

It’s an old, but primal, oath that doctors are supposed to take before they set out into the world of medicine: “Do no harm” to the patients they serve. Perhaps a few of us in the economics profession should do the same. Because some of our ideas-or more accurately, characterizations of our ideas-may be doing more harm than good. Of course, it’s great to see ideas that come out of your own specialized area of expertise find their way into…

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NOTIONS: This holiday season, ‘It’s jobs, stupid’

Bruce Hetrick is off for the holidays. But in the hope that you’ll shop the after-Christmas sales locally, helping to spur job retention and growth in central Indiana, he offers the following column, which originally appeared on Oct. 27, 2003. Christmas is coming, the goose is getting fat Please put a penny in the old man’s hat If you haven’t got a penny, a ha’ penny will do, If you haven’t got a ha’ penny, then God bless you In…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Changing state’s tax system would be tough to pull off

When it comes to matters of tax policy, inertia reigns supreme. The federal government still collects the proceeds of an excise tax on telephones that was borne as a temporary measure to help finance the Spanish-American War. The tolls on the Indiana Toll Road have not changed in almost 20 years. And the granddaddy of them all, the property tax, has existed in one form or another since the Middle Ages. So when the mayors of Indiana cities and towns…

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EYE ON THE PIE: Security depends on flexibility, not stability

In one word, what do we want? I suggest that word is security, physical and financial security. We want to live without fear for our lives or our livelihoods. The atrocities of 9/11 made Americans more fearful about their physical security than they had been since the early days of World War II. Our economic condition feels insecure as jobs drift to other nations, as health care costs soar, and as both public and private pension plans are threatened. To…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Economy is doing great, but what about next year?

Here’s a question the visually oriented news media face all the time-what does a strong economy look like? Belching smokestacks and humming assembly lines are the clichés of yesteryear, now that we’ve entered an era when knowledge and services account for more output than do physical goods. But somehow the picture of an office worker tapping on a keyboard or a group of executives huddled around a conference table doesn’t quite convey the vitality and power of the world’s largest…

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Landlords may face big holes: If groceries close, centers would suffer

Marsh Supermarkets Inc. serves as an anchor tenant for dozens of central Indiana shopping centers. So if the company or a buyer ends up closing stores, centers across the region could be left with gaping holes. Not only can large vacant spaces in shopping centers make them look blighted. They also reduce customer counts at smaller retailers that feed off grocery store traffic, retail experts say. “People go to the grocery store once or twice or three times in a…

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Pass the sushi, boss; it’s time to celebrate: Corporate holiday events are less common, more fun

Surveys may point to a decrease in corporate parties this holiday season, but party planners say those who attend them are likely to have more fun. The trend is shifting away from stuffy, business-focused affairs. More parties are including live music and other entertainment, said Joe Husar, co-owner of Kahn’s Katering and meeting venue Montage at Allison Pointe. Still, this year could mark the first decrease in corporate holiday events since 2001, according to a national survey. Eighty-seven percent of…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: Farming on decline, but ag still offers opportunity

Drive less than 20 minutes from almost any crossroads in Indiana and you’ll come across a feature of the Midwest landscape we take for granted: farmland. The vast open space in abundance between our state’s urban areas remains dominated by the industry that once employed more people than any other: agriculture. And while the sights of barns, cropland and animals grazing in pastures are familiar to us all, we should remember that looks can be deceiving. Plenty of changes are…

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BULLS & BEARS: Slowing inflation may mean good news ahead for stocks

Despite natural disasters, war and oil shocks, the U.S. economy has had a good year, with the gross domestic product posting growth of 3.8 percent. Corporate profits will grow this year at a doubledigit rate. And yet the U.S. stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones industrials, has done next to nothing. Here’s one big reason: fear of inflation. It’s slowed the economic sprint and caused investors to reach for their worry beads. We all know Alan Greenspan has…

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Race against crime: As public safety becomes a business issue, much is riding on battle for prosecutor

The dust has settled on Mayor Bart Peterson’s failed police merger. Meanwhile, local crime is surging, up 11 percent from 2002 to 2004. The next bellwether on how to turn the tide will be the 2006 Marion County prosecutor’s race. The contest, pitting Melina Maniatis Kennedy against incumbent Carl Brizzi, already is drawing the attention of community and business leaders, who say the stakes are huge: Rampant crime can cripple a local economy. “Where there’s crime-scene tape, there are not…

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EYE ON THE PIE: Growth disparity challenges Indiana

But to understand, we need to do some work, to dig into some numbers. How is Indiana’s economy doing? In May 2000, we had 3.01 million jobs in the state, an all-time high, according to the Indiana Department of Work Force Development. This number bottomed out in July 2003 at 2.89 million (a loss of 4.3 percent). This September, we had 2.97 million jobs, so we had regained 65 percent of what we had lost. But we are still 45,000…

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NOTIONS: Putting human rights bill to the test

A few weeks ago, my son Zach was named a Student Rotarian by his high school in Fort Wayne. He was invited to be honored at a downtown Rotary Club luncheon in that city, and asked me to attend. The Rotarians met on the second floor of the Summit City’s downtown Holiday Inn. Zach and I went through the buffet line and sat down at a round table with the superintendent of his school system and four other Rotarians. The…

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: States shed differences, except those in Midwest

What can we say about the business climate in Indiana that other states aren’t already saying about themselves? We think we have a great quality of life, good access to transportation, and a hardworking labor force. So do they. We have a variety of tax incentives, training grants and infrastructure improvements that we tout aggressively to those who would build or expand here. So do they. In fact, one of the most remarkable trends over the last few decades has…

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Fine-tuning a business strategy: Local violinmaker finds success by raising prices

F ine-tuning a business strategy Local violinmaker finds success by raising prices John Welch made a counterintuitive business decision two years ago. The violin business was in decline. Asian manufacturers were turning out high-quality stringed instruments for a fraction of the price of their American competitors. Welch decided to swim against the current. He raised prices. “We realized the only way to compete with the Chinese was to improve our quality,” said Welch, CEO of Indianapolis-based Sofia Violins. “We realized…

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