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Braun slightly ahead of Donnelly in new Fox News poll

September 13, 2018

The latest poll in the U.S. Senate race shows Republican candidate Mike Braun ahead of Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly by two points.

The poll from Fox News, which was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research, found that 43 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Donnelly, while 45 percent said they would vote for Braun. Three percent said they would vote for Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton.

About a third of likely voters surveyed could still change their mind though—31 percent of Donnelly supporters said they could change their mind and 30 percent of Braun supporters said they might.

President Donald Trump is a deciding factor for some voters—33 percent said their vote would reflect their support for Trump and 31 percent said their vote would reflect their opposition to the president. About a third of the likely voters surveyed said Trump was not a factor.

The poll also found that people are interested in the U.S. Senate race. Only 4 percent of likely voters said they were “not at all” interested in it, while 95 percent were somewhat, very or extremely interested.

The poll surveyed 804 registered voters in Indiana from Saturday through Tuesday. Out of those surveyed, 677 were defined as likely voters. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Polling has picked up recently in the race, which is one of the most-watched U.S. Senate contests in the country as Donnelly tries to win in a state that Trump won in 2016 by nearly 20 percentage points.

But the polls have shown mixed results. An NBC News/Marist poll released earlier this month had Donnelly ahead of Braun by six percentage points among likely voters.

A couple of earlier polls showed closer margins.

The Fox News poll also had different results on Trump’s approval rating. The NBC News/Marist poll put Trump’s approval rating at 48 percent, but the Fox News poll shows the president has a 54 percent approval rating in Indiana.

Vice President and former Indiana Gov. Mike Pence has a higher approval rating than Trump, with 56 percent of likely voters approving of him, according to Fox News.

Donnelly has a 52 percent approval rating among likely voters, and Braun has a 47 percent approval rating.

Of those polled, 53 percent identified as Republican, 39 percent identified as Democrat and 8 percent identified as independent.

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