Rather, the Japanese automaker could grow five times that fast, say analysts quoted by Bloomberg.
Sales probably will slow from the 15 percent experienced last year, but still set a healthy pace on the continent, the analysts say.
Why the dour forecast? Probably to avoid gloating at a time domestic automakers are closing plants and laying off workers, thus avoiding a backlash from U.S. politicians who could impose higher tariffs on imported vehicles.
"Its outlook sales figure seems to be political," said Koji Endo, a senior analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Tokyo.