Curt Smith: Primary results are strong reminder of Trump’s influence

Call it the Trump primary.

President Donald J. Trump’s aggressive intervention in seven Indiana Republican state Senate races produced five clear victories and a razor-thin, three-vote near-miss. His endorsements, combined with an estimated $13.5 million or more in outside spending, have reshaped the Indiana Senate in dramatic fashion.

What happened on May 5 was front-page news across the country, another reminder that Indiana continues to deliver for Trump.

In making that national news, Hoosier primary voters answered two key questions on Tuesday night, but left a larger, more consequential one unresolved.

The first conclusion is unmistakable: Trump’s influence in Indiana remains dominant. Even amid career-low national approval ratings and a Middle East conflict with Iran, Republican voters overwhelmingly sided with his endorsed challengers. Most winners took 60% or more of the vote.

The night began with the defeat of Senate Majority Leader Travis Holdman, R-Markle, who garnered less than 40% of the vote in his race against Bluffton City Council member
Blake Fiechter.

Three more incumbents lost as results rolled in, including 32-year veteran Jim Buck of Kokomo.

A sixth race saw GOP incumbent Spencer Deery of West Lafayette apparently squeak by with a narrow three-vote margin.

Deery ran an effective campaign, flooding the airwaves early with positive ads highlighting his legislative record. He built up enough goodwill to largely withstand the inevitable attacks. Incumbents running in future years would be wise to study his race.

The second clear verdict is that the Indiana Senate is shifting rightward.

When the new members are sworn in this November, the Republican supermajority will remain intact but will tilt noticeably more conservative.

The genteel, Reagan-era style personified by Holdman and Buck is receding. The incoming cohort rode in on Trump’s coattails and projects a more combative, populist energy. The open question is whether they will govern that way, using their numbers to pull the caucus further to the right.

And that is the still-unanswered question: What exactly will they do with this new power?

The challengers shared one central bond: opposition to incumbents who resisted Trump’s push for mid-decade redistricting. Beyond that, there was little unifying policy message or positive agenda.

Unlike the 1980 Reagan wave or the 1994 Republican Revolution — elections that produced sweeping policy shifts on taxes, defense, and government reform — this contest was defined more by what it opposed than by what it proposed. We know what they are against, but we know little about what they are supporting.

Hoosiers are right to wonder what policy substance will emerge from this expensive, bruising fight.

Moreover, did the torrent of negative advertising and outside money damage the well of goodwill needed for effective legislating? Will relations within the 40-member Republican Senate caucus be so frayed that passing a budget and claiming victory become the ceiling of achievement?

Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray, R-Martinsville, struck a conciliatory note on election night.

GOP Gov. Mike Braun was similarly constructive, signaling his willingness to work with whoever leads the chamber.

Yet the challengers reportedly agreed to oppose Bray as a condition of Trump’s backing.

Whether that leads to an actual leadership challenge remains to be seen. In a closed caucus, the precise vote count may never be public.

Still, Bray’s position is clearly weakened, and, with it, the previous direction of Indiana’s Republican policy agenda.

We know President Trump is steering the ship. But the direction it will sail is still uncertain.•

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Smith is chairman of the Indiana Family Institute and author of “Deicide: Why Eliminating The Deity is Destroying America.” Send comments to [email protected].

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