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Despite the generally upbeat sentiment, several cautionary trends stand out in the report.
Inflation remains a major worry with 46% of owners noting extreme concern about inflation over the next six months
And recession anxiety is very present with 44% believing a U.S. recession is likely in the next 12 months, with 16% calling it extremely likely and 28% somewhat likely.
Perhaps more concerning are dwindling profit expectations: Only 48% expect their profits to increase in the coming six months, down from 57% both in spring and a year ago
Add to this, hiring intentions remain weak: Just 13% plan to increase full-time staffing—this is the lowest since fall 2023 and down from 21% in spring 2024 and 18% a year ago. Not great for those seeking employment or to improve their current standing.
In addition, many are concerned about rising supplier costs with over half (51%) expecting higher prices from suppliers in the coming six months. Among those, the mean expected increase in consumer prices is 4.4%, up from 3.2% six months ago, and similar to 4.5% last fall.
Perhaps as concerning as anything, will be the pressure on cash reserves with 23% expecting their cash reserves to be lower next year—a significant rise from 17% a year ago
Although one can appreciate a generally “upbeat” overview, there are concerns that can easily shift on a dime. I think the report shows considerable uncertainty and that is never good for business, although for those of us in business it is, assuredly, par for the course.
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Did they get asked about health insurance premiums?